Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

[Lynxus]

Oh well! not many of us had a storm today, the potential was there but only a few got one. Still there's plenty more time yet I'm now looking to Sunday and next week. You got admit it's been gorgeous weather though!

While I do get annoyed when energy doesnt get used and nothing appears after a hot day.

I do feel somewhat relieved as the buildup of extra heat over the coming week could help give us an awesome breakdown ( Depending on how it breaks down )

Plenty of time. Just enjoy the sun.. Thunder will come

Oh and looking at the euro sats make me sad.

Watching storm after storm the size of wales just isnt fun.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Lynxus

[viking_smb]

no storms on sat, we are boating in cadets as training them up for the powerboat handling comp in the marina, so no storms thank you .

it was muggy today in south wales, and nice tonight, got pushed in during boating this eve in cadets penarth marina is nice and warm 2nite. lol

[Supacell]

Whilst we await storms in this country - check this out I just found on you tube!!

[Convective]

I am going to be in Liverpool tomorrow. What is the chance of me seeing anything thundery?

[Chris W]

Whilst we await storms in this country - check this out I just found on you tube!!

Hi everyone, I'm new here and glad to see such enthusiasm for the weather.

I have to say that having witnessed two CG lightning strikes at around 20m away from me in an open area it is not pleasant and I wouldn't leave myself that exposed, at least without cover. The sound was the loudest thing I have ever heard, both the cracks from the bolts and then the booming instant thunder. I suppose I'm just saying those people were fortunate as was I.

Anyway, I don't want to pour cold water on a very impressive phenomenon as lightning is. I live in Chester, work near Warrington and do hope we get something soon. I saw some very tasty clouds earlier and would love to see more!

[Robbie Garrett]

Hi everyone, I'm new here and glad to see such enthusiasm for the weather.

I have to say that having witnessed two CG lightning strikes at around 20m away from me in an open area it is not pleasant and I wouldn't leave myself that exposed, at least without cover. The sound was the loudest thing I have ever heard, both the cracks from the bolts and then the booming instant thunder. I suppose I'm just saying those people were fortunate as was I.

Anyway, I don't want to pour cold water on a very impressive phenomenon as lightning is. I live in Chester, work near Warrington and do hope we get something soon. I saw some very tasty clouds earlier and would love to see more!

Welcome to the forums.

Was this recent??

[Chris W]

Welcome to the forums.

Was this recent??

Thanks for your welcome.

Not recent no, it was in 2004 in Cumbria, near Orton (Great Asby Scar if you know the area) whilst on my dissertation field trip. It was a very stormy August and a horrendous week in the area - too much to tell on here. It was terrifying, but I lived and remember how incredible nature can be! I also found at the time (the people I was staying with called me between strikes, seeing what had happened on the hill I was on) that mobile phones don't like thunderstorms much either...

Edited May 24, 2012 by Chris W

[davehsug]

Sound like OON had something to do with it. He is all-powerful in the Cumbrian region. Had you spoken harshly to any local sheep?

[Chris W]

Haha, I didn't even have sheep for company that day - maybe they all knew what was coming? Anyway, I won't take up too much of this thread with my own experiences as it's bedtime. Here's hoping for something good tomorrow or into next week.

[Tim B]

Whilst we await storms in this country - check this out I just found on you tube!!

Nice, been close to a few like that in the past!

Videos don't do it justice at that range as it frightens the life out of you even if you are under cover simply because of how loud it is.

[Coast]

Morning all!

ESTOFEX amazingly have nothing for Europe today. UKASF are more to my way of thinking:

Forecaster: Chris

Last Updated: 2012-05-24 22:49:00

Valid: 2012-05-25 00:00:00 - 2012-05-25 23:59:00

Areas Affected:

SW England, SW Wales, S Ireland

Synopsis:

High pressure anchored over Scandinavia will push a reinforcement of drier air in from the east during the day with a decaying cold front crossing southern Britain from east to west during the day.

Discussion:

Drier, lower dewpoint air will be advected across eastern areas through the day behind the remains of a weakening cold front. This will push the potentially unstable air that has been across a large portion of Britain away to the west where it will become confined to very southwestern portions of Britain and across southern Ireland. This is where any potential thunderstorm risk will be through Friday. CAPE of 750-1000j/kg is possible across southern Ireland and to a lesser extent, perhaps to 500j/kg in southwestern Engalnd. Like in previous days there will likely need to be a mechanism, such as orography or perhaps coastal/sea-breeze convergence to initiate convection and break the cap.

Again this appears to be most likely across southern parts of Ireland and to a much lesser extent in SW Eng/Wales. DLS remains almost non-existant therefore organised convection and severe weather is unlikely, however there could be a little more LLS, particularly in SE Ireland than of late so there is a very small chance of an brief funnel early in the life-cycle of any stronger updrafts.

Primary threats will be heavier downpours and flash flooding along with cloud to ground lightning.

None of the other dedicated sites have revealed their hand yet, here are a few more possible indicators:

The HiRLAM charts have nice areas of CAPE in the 'possibility zone':

Check out the North Cornwall and Devon coasts:

Into Ireland and Wales:

This spout chart seems to sum up the parts for consideration today:

Slight tornado threat off the North Cornwall coast too??

If someone was filling my cars tank with fuel and giving me a day off, I'd head straight for the area between Bude and Bridgwater. If nothing else, what a wonderful part of the country to be in on a sunny day like today!!!!

[Jane Louise]

Hi everyone, I'm new here and glad to see such enthusiasm for the weather.

I have to say that having witnessed two CG lightning strikes at around 20m away from me in an open area it is not pleasant and I wouldn't leave myself that exposed, at least without cover. The sound was the loudest thing I have ever heard, both the cracks from the bolts and then the booming instant thunder. I suppose I'm just saying those people were fortunate as was I.

Anyway, I don't want to pour cold water on a very impressive phenomenon as lightning is. I live in Chester, work near Warrington and do hope we get something soon. I saw some very tasty clouds earlier and would love to see more!

Hi Chris and welcome to the forum good luck with the storms, we all sure need it lol. Enjoy your stay!

[Jane Louise]

Morning all!

If someone was filling my cars tank with fuel and giving me a day off, I'd head straight for the area between Bude and Bridgwater. If nothing else, what a wonderful part of the country to be in on a sunny day like today!!!!

All it needs is to be nudged a little further North then I'd be in luck today lol. Hoping something triggers off on Sunday.I wont get to excited until nearer the time though.

[Coast]

Tuesday night onwards in the South looking interesting, maybe a thundery breakdown:

[Jane Louise]

Tuesday night onwards in the South looking interesting, maybe a thundery breakdown:

Fingers crossed! that sure is looking good. Let's hope it stays it that way and nothing changes the potential.

[Harry]

Dont say that...I'm going to Spain on Monday for a week and going to be absolutely gutted if we get our first plume style event and I'm not here to see it

You never know, Torravieja might get slammed by some unusual storms while I am out there!

[Coast]

Dont say that...I'm going to Spain on Monday for a week and going to be absolutely gutted if we get our first plume style event and I'm not here to see it

Well at this far out you shouldn't worry too much H, but I'll keep an eye on things and if you're on the NW storm page out there, I'll try not to rub it in too much if we do get a monster!!!

[Coast]

Dew points already up:

[kaz]

hi im in Barnstaple North Devon so keeping a close watch on the weather fingers x we get something later. Temps are well up even with the stiff breeze. Only had one brief T-storm here in the last few years, think we have a no storm dome over us.

Kaz

[Mapantz]

hi im in Barnstaple North Devon so keeping a close watch on the weather fingers x we get something later. Temps are well up even with the stiff breeze. Only had one brief T-storm here in the last few years, think we have a no storm dome over us.

Kaz

The temps are high here too, in fact, after being progged cooler weather, it's turned out to be warmer than the last two days. Dew points have dropped now though, gone from 17.5C to 14.5C in the space of an hour, as the fresher air filtered in. All eyes on the south west come Sunday and in to the beginning of next week. :-)

Edited May 25, 2012 by Mapantz

[Marcus_surfer]

Got towering clouds here very hazy temps high at 25c would love it to see an isolated storm break out!

[robt]

This was posted on the local police helicopter twitter earlier today, showing the Inversion layer at about 2000ft over South Yorkshire. They mentioned that their horizontal visibility was shocking until they got through it.

https://twitter.com/SYP_AirOps/status/205983667456192512/photo/1

[Coast]

One random sferic out at the top of the Bay of Biscay, I wonder if there is enough energy or triggers to get anything going before the end of the evening??

[vortex_liam]

One random sferic out at the top of the Bay of Biscay, I wonder if there is enough energy or triggers to get anything going before the end of the evening??

Could be, if it goes then it'll be big!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Storms kicking off in western Ireland now.

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html