South East England & East Anglia Regional Discussion - June 28th 2012>

[Jason T]

A mediocre morning here. Earlier rain has died out, just leaving it overcast.

I found out this morning, that my brother is going to Silverstone for race day only, so good news for him, it seems.

Just been tweeted....

Ian Ferguson

F1 silverstone: F'cast models continue trend to enhance heavy shower/t-storm potential Fri PM-Sun PM; threat looks quite high 4 race

You got me all excited and then....until I read what you'd typed properly

......but on a happier note if we're not getting a L2 alert I don't need to avoid alcohol

LOL MK. Its just so depressing and frustrating. NEED vitamin D.

Edited July 3, 2012 by Jason T

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks like lots or rain pushing up from France Lots to come tonight hope this does not cause flooding!!! NAE been spot on..

[Jason T]

Oh Dear.....

July 12…What’s To Be Expected?…

3JUL

Well there goes one summer month, that’s if you can call it a summer month and clearly June has gone down in the record books for various reasons, most particularly in terms of precipitation. I’m sure many were expecting that after the scenes and pictures from various areas of the UK over the last number of weeks, as low pressure brought persistent rain and flooding to parts of NW England and Cumbria and then also the severe thunderstorms late in the month. Overall quite a month, clearly not for the right reasons, but a month which all the medium and long-range models highlighted would be unsettled and clearly it was…

Early July is up and running and as you may have gathered from the shorter range forecasts and information, a change of month hasn’t brought a change in the weather and unfortunately I don’t expect any changes in the near future;

Throughout the first half of July I expect and predict that the predominantly unsettled synoptic pattern will continue. The broader synoptic pattern is likely to maintain a trough across the UK, whilst higher pressure is dominant across Eastern Europe and more importantly to the North-west of the UK. As we have experienced for numerous weeks now, high pressure to the North-west of the UK in summer is never a good place for it to be. The importance is that it is likely to maintain the trough and unsettled conditions across the UK and there is little signs of this pattern, which has been evident for numerous weeks, changing. This can also be seen within the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean charts;

Both charts have a marked trough of low pressure across the UK, with pressure generally higher to the North-west of the UK and also across more Eastern Europe where it has been for weeks. Note as well, the usual summer-related main Azores high pressure continues to be held well to the south-west of the UK, with little or no sign of this influencing the weather across the UK as July progresses. The persistence of the predominantly cyclonic conditions is also represented well within the latest GFS ENS atmospheric pressure graph, randomly selected for Central areas of the UK (Northern England);

That really is quite a shocking prediction at the moment with also relatively good, if not very good ensemble model agreement that up to the 18th or 19th of the month at least, the atmosphere pressure is unlikely to get above 1020mb, which for the time of year, is again, shocking. You can also clearly see that directly associated with this signal for relatively low pressure is the consistent signal for precipitation across the bottom of the graph as well throughout the forecast period, which continues to support the likelihood of further precipitation, some of which could be significant at times as well, not just across Northern and Western areas of the UK, but also across Southern regions too.

So in summary, I have quite high confidence to suggest that the first half of July will continue (unfortunately) in the same pattern that we have had to endure throughout June. Low pressure is set to dominate and as a result further relatively cool conditions are forecast with perhaps some additional large rainfall totals at times depending on the specific events and details as the next few weeks progresses.

So, what about the second half of July?…Any potential changes?…

Unfortunately, at the moment I don’t envisage any significant changes;

Given the time frames involved then clearly confidence levels do drop away, but what I do expect is further unsettled and cyclonic conditions to continue after mid-month as well, at least for a time. I have highlighted this as an issue in some of my previous blogs and that is particularly during the summer, long-term pressure trends become insignificant and weak given the nature of the weather during the summer and at the moment that is the case for say the final 7 to 10 days of July. As a result the far end of July may well begin to see a pattern change. It is often a time for the broader synoptic pattern to change if it has been ‘stuck in a rut’ for a long time, so as a disclaimer please acknowledge the above image with some open thought and also hope that the final week or so of July may begin to see a change to something warmer and more settled.

So in summary and it doesn’t bring me any joy to highlight this, but the first half of Summer 2012 looks to be a complete washout with the first half of July now expected to be unsettled and predominantly cool. The second half of July may well maintain these unsettled conditions, particularly for at time after mid-month, before perhaps changing at the end of the month. Clearly however, overall July may also now turn out to be quite poor as well, particularly if 2 or 3 of the 4 weeks of the month do end up being predominantly unsettled.

As ever, all thoughts and comments are welcomed and as usual I’ll review the first half of July mid-month and also take a closer look at the second half of the month and into early August…Here’s hoping by then there is something on the horizon in terms of summer-like weather, as clearly these weeks and months are ticking by!.

[john pike]

fax charts

wednesday-- occasional sunshine but heavy showers building up more so in the afternoon

thursday 00hr wet evening with a possibility of some thunder in the heavy bursts

thursday 12 cloudy day with occasional showers some heavy

friday 12 heavy persistant rain for most of the day-- flood risk increasing

saturday 12 cloudy again with showers occasionally heavy- could be a humid day with the risk of some thunder

sunday 12 very heavy rain again-- flooding for most areas in the south east looks a problem here

the grand prix would be called off in these conditions.

gfs cape charts of interest

for above

the risk for some storms is there but the problem we have here is it does not feel warm enough

to get the trigger to set the storms off

best time to me looks tomorrow late afternoon-evening

we will need to see some sun to rise the temperature during the day though.

for what its worth i think the jet will start to show in the models rising to our north

from around the 20th,

this will only go north for about a week but could set us up for a hot week and the

chance of a proper storm around the end of july

do not do long range normally but thought i would share my thoughts with you

watch out for end of week for flooding

[ZONE 51]

Fax charts look interesting, those troughs floating about or maybe hanging about! i should say, would be ideal for some big storms in places, England and Wales especially, slow moving with some light winds(isobars large gaps) the risks being high rainfall levels and lots of thunder and lightning, can i say there would be severe storms to a certain level, but it's going to be an on the day thing, watching them build up, i expect the yellow warnings to be extended east nearer the time, London/west Sussex, so interesting for several days.

[Steve C]

Updated CAPE & LI for midnight (23 hours time) Imported storms potential stll?

All in all the forecast for storms, over the next few days, has become more promising for us here - probably means that the best rumbles will only come from our hungry stomachs mind you!

[john pike]

from the 10th to the 15th i am surprised how low the temperatures are on these

temperatures around the mid teens for mid july

these also look very wet

dare i say it

they look pants

Updated CAPE & LI for midnight (23 hours time) Imported storms potential stll?

All in all the forecast for storms, over the next few days, has become more promising for us here - probably means that the best rumbles will only come from our hungry stomachs mind you!

i had a curry tonight

does that count

[ZONE 51]

TF, i think there could be some storms in the NorthSea zone and these could take a coastal trip, can things move abit west....

We always get eastwards shifts with most setups, anyway it will be interesting to watch on the sat what it all does!

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_latest_radar.html

some pretty heavy showers there for tonight

the satellite looks clear for a few hours after this rain goes through

lets hope we can get some heat up tomorrow

i agree with electric re the east movement

[ZONE 51]

Part of Netweather's latest forecast-Overnight tonight the showers continue in many regions, slowly pushing northeast, which means tomorrow we start with showers already heavy at times in the east and these will again develop more widely as the day moves on. Perhaps tomorrow will see less in the way of showers in the south of the country for a time at least although we do need to keep an eye on the risk of some thunderstorms pushing up from the continent into the southeast later on.

Take alook at the MetO predictive radar!!

[ZONE 51]

It does look more straightlined north(risk from continental imports later wednesday), Kent? interesting outlook for the days ahead.

Edited July 4, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Steve C]

i had a curry tonight

does that count

Well sort of, but hmmm...

Comparing an empty stomach rumbling to a curry stomach rumbling, is a bit like comparing thunder rumbles to the rumbling of a volcano.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Run the NAE precipitation charts through for tonight and early tomorrow.... See it picking up that rain moving up from northern France.. Could that be our t storms?

[Snowangel-MK]

Another sticky one. I thought the overnight rain might have freshened things but apparently not.

I think it's made it worse here !!

18.7 Deg C - DP 18 - Humidity 95% and that was at 9am - my only concern is the cloud cover we have at the moment will go against any storm possibility's for later, I'm mostly working today anyway so if I could choose I'd rather wait until Friday/Saturday and then have a humdinger

[Steve C]

I think it's made it worse here !!

18.7 Deg C - DP 18 - Humidity 95% and that was at 9am - my only concern is the cloud cover we have at the moment will go against any storm possibility's for later, I'm mostly working today anyway so if I could choose I'd rather wait until Friday/Saturday and then have a humdinger

It was reasonably bright here, on the drive to work. Definitely more humid too. In fact I was thinking how much more pleasant it was than the two gloomy drives home on Monday and Tuesday.

It seems like it's becoming more cloudy now though, although there are still patches of blue sky.

[Paul Sherman]

Certainly moist and rain foresty out there.

Current conditions here are 65f / 63f on the T/Td Spread.

Could even get a bit more humid overnight as an elevated mixed Layer (EML) Overspreads the region, touch and go still wether we get a Clipper, Slapper etc, but Kent, Suffolk and Norfolk as usual must be favoured!

Paul S

[tinybill]

Certainly moist and rain foresty out there.

Current conditions here are 65f / 63f on the T/Td Spread.

Could even get a bit more humid overnight as an elevated mixed Layer (EML) Overspreads the region, touch and go still wether we get a Clipper, Slapper etc, but Kent, Suffolk and Norfolk as usual must be favoured!

Paul S

thanks Paul things look things will get very interesting, with the flooding due to monsoon rain that will make silverstone interesting over the weekend

[Snowangel-MK]

thanks Paul things look things will get very interesting, with the flooding due to monsoon rain that will make silverstone interesting over the weekend

Certainly will...the camp site is already on RED alert ..

http://www.silverstone.co.uk/woodlands-wet-weather-f1/

The site will be muddy – be prepared - bring full wet weather clothing and footwear.

[Coast]

Can you park off site and get a park and ride scheme? I know when I went to Silverstone for quali one year it was a nigth mare queuing to get out of the car parks in a dry period, let alone waiting for a tractor to pull me out??

[Eskimo]

NAE +48 is showing a band of EXTREMELY heavy rain moving into the South-East, widespread flooding from that surely.

[Coast]

GFS not looking the best precursor to things for us either!.

The North could really do without more of this, but are we next?

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

coast looking on what f1 saying the weather is dire to say the least , with the up and coming Olympics it could be a wash out !! im looking forward to watching the volleyball in the rain!!

[Steve C]

I'm feeling a touch of model fatigue at the moment.

It feels like somewhere is in for a deluge soon, but where?

Weather is bright, if mostly cloudy here still.

[Coast]

coast looking on what f1 saying the weather is dire to say the least , with the up and coming Olympics it could be a wash out !! im looking forward to watching the volleyball in the rain!!

Dedicated thread running here and it's not pretty:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/73754-british-grand-prix-weather/

Then we've got Wimbledon to get through.......

[Guest archiesmummy]

In southend today determined to get to the seaside this summer! Just seen the weather warnings! Lol...

Any reports of a family of four stuck at the end of the pier...that's us!