Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 28th June 2012>

[Karl83]

My attention is drawn to Europe, over 2500 j/kg of cape and Li -9 Estofex will be busy this week and indeed Nick F here on NW

Incredile stuff! Can't even begin to imagine what it would be like to be in it!

Looking good in the East/NE for next Monday too. Will change a lot until then you'd have thought.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs1656.gif

[PolarWarsaw]

Seems to me whilst for summer lovers there isn't much in the way of clear sunny skies, 25oc+ weather at the moment, that on the flip side there's a chance for thunderstorms in 90% of the UK, pretty much everyday for the next 7 or 8 days. I no we're in the aftermath of a big, big event (the biggest in my 21 year life personally) and its going to be hard to compare anything to that, but if last week hadn't occured, I think this place would perhaps not be buzzing but would be 'busy' with excitement. These are good solid storm charts ladies and gentlemen. So they aren't perfect, but life isn't. Take the good with the bad IMO and enjoy the storms (that we dont usually see).

[ZONE 51]

Recent lightning radar, clear of any strikes over BI,

[Mixer 85]

Seems to me whilst for summer lovers there isn't much in the way of clear sunny skies, 25oc+ weather at the moment, that on the flip side there's a chance for thunderstorms in 90% of the UK, pretty much everyday for the next 7 or 8 days. I no we're in the aftermath of a big, big event (the biggest in my 21 year life personally) and its going to be hard to compare anything to that, but if last week hadn't occured, I think this place would perhaps not be buzzing but would be 'busy' with excitement. These are good solid storm charts ladies and gentlemen. So they aren't perfect, but life isn't. Take the good with the bad IMO and enjoy the storms (that we dont usually see).

Totally agree Radders, I'm personally very excited about this week Every day showing good potential, Friday especially(if the current output sticks) and I'm off work You just never know your luck, for example earlier today (yesterday) as I was driving, I looked up at an overhead cell and caught a glimpse of the one and only lightning strike in my area all day. It was a pretty week unimpressive IC strike but a strike none the less. Couldn't believe my luck!!! My first bit of action so far this year and hopefully a taste of whats to come. Best of luck to all this week.

[ZONE 51]

Yes a Thundery Week a head, lots to keep up with, i would be making a storm map every day if i was to do them! but i won't be doing them this time, but a lot of potential for severe weather, can't say that there would be for certain severe storms but it would only take small changes to develop situations for them.

Edited July 3, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Evening thunder]

Friday looking pretty good with a LI of -5 and CAPE approaching 1300j/kg in places, and the MetO have a thunder symbol for me, Typical I'm out of the country lol. Could have tried some chasing this week. Oh well I hope Holland's particularly tasty looking charts tomorrow evening pay off! and even better if we get good chances after I get back.

I will be having by fingers crossed that storm starved locations (e.g Wrexham) get something nice this week.

Edited July 3, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Coast]

No one sticking their neck out for storms in the UK today although Carol Kirkwood has mentioned the word thundery in her early forecast this morning. UKASF the only dedicated site to comment on today and it's not in favour either:

Areas Affected: None.

Synopsis:

A large area of low pressure will continue to be anchored west of Ireland pushing a series of fronts into Britain.

Discussion:

No lightning activity is expected across the British Isles on Tuesday as low pressure and a series of fronts bring a lot of cloud and "showery rain". A few isolated cells could develop from East Anglia, eastern England and perhaps the Midlands, but they are not expected to develop large enough updrafts to generate lightning

Just to back that up:

Although......

No significant CAPE at all!

Although GFS general weather has an area in the NE bordering Scotland highlighted late afternoon....

I reckon this is pretty marginal and chasers might like to use this as a rest day and go and eat a 72oz steak somewhere!!!!

http://www.branded-bull.co.uk/offers/offer1

[Cloudwatcher]

Totally, the perfect triangle of stormlessness. I bet we're watching the storms fire off to the east again this week...the story never changes.

Don't think I'm going to bother this week, it certainly doesn't seem to be looking hopeful for the "Cheshire Triangle" at the moment. They will come up from the SW, get deflected by the Clwydian Range and do the usual eastward turn.We just don't have enough energy in the atmosphere in these parts at the moment. I think we will be in for another day like last thursday. Dull, drizzley rain and cool.

[Coast]

Don't think I'm going to bother this week, it certainly doesn't seem to be looking hopeful for the "Cheshire Triangle" at the moment.

Ermmmmm........

[Cloudwatcher]

Ermmmmm........

I'm still inclined to believe we won't see any action this week. Looking at the top chart, we are firmly slap bang in that western corridor that is not showing any TS activity expected. I know it's certainly not 100% accurate at the moment but I think we will be in the situation we were in on thursday last, where the nearest activity to us was Staffs/ W. Midlands, progressing north up the M6 corridor. That's not wishing to sound negative, I truly hope we see something this week. Just not confident ATM. Might just keep the camera charged up ready though.........just in case lol

[Coast]

I'm not ruling anything out as the week progresses but I'm thinking my little part of the World is in a less likely area this week, unless by some amazing freak of nature we get something from our European neighbours!!

[Jane Louise]

Don't give up hope yet Robin!! you may have a chance tomorrow

Overnight tonight the showers continue in many regions, slowly pushing northeast, which means tomorrow we start with showers already heavy at times in the east and these will again develop more widely as the day moves on. Perhaps tomorrow will see less in the way of showers in the south of the country for a time at least although we do need to keep an eye on the risk of some thunderstorms pushing up from the continent into the southeast later on.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=1153;sess=

[Liam J]

Thursday seems to have been downgraded for many on the 00z, Firday is now looking like the best day of the week with most of the country having decent cape values (over 1000 j/kg for a few) and negative Li. Looking promising for the next 4 days after we get toThursday.

Edited July 3, 2012 by Liam J

[Supacell]

Looks like possibly the most interesting few days of convective weather so far this summer. Ok nothing as severe as last Thursday but that was a one day offer. Here we have at least 5 days of potential from Weds onwards.

If we can get that some of that DLS to coincide with all that CAPE in addition to the low pressure sat right over or near us I can see some really good storms getting going, especially where troughs and wind convergence set up. With light winds and slow storm motion too it could be a chasers paradise. But there would need to be something to help those storms have some longetivity. Pulse storms are notoriously difficult to chase and would require a lot more luck than science.

[Coast]

Don't give up hope yet Robin!! you may have a chance tomorrow

Oh never give up Jane! Just seeing the potential is a bit too far away from my location (and given I'm not out and about this week) so happy for others to be in the chair once again. It does get better as the week marches on but of course that is still far enough away for changes in each model run to push things backwards and forwards. I'm heartened by the possibilities again this week though and excited to see how things develop.

[Cloudwatcher]

Ooo...just had another look at that CAPE/Li for Friday for us. Right on the border of a hotspot, definitely within driving distance....

PLEASE DO NOT DOWNGRADE!!

[Karl83]

Morning,

Loving Friday's CAPE chart from GFS.

1500 hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs876.gif

1800 hrs http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs906.gif

I bet Central England gets the good stuff!

[Lewis]

Bit of a downgrade on CAPE and LI values on todays 00z NMM for today across Eastern parts, nonetheless there is still the chance for some thundery downpours developing.

Wednesday looking good, and friday! looks very good.

Lewis

[chionomaniac]

Oh never give up Jane! Just seeing the potential is a bit too far away from my location (and given I'm not out and about this week) so happy for others to be in the chair once again. It does get better as the week marches on but of course that is still far enough away for changes in each model run to push things backwards and forwards. I'm heartened by the possibilities again this week though and excited to see how things develop.

We do seem to have been in the CAPE avoidance zone this summer!

[Coast]

We do seem to have been in the CAPE avoidance zone this summer!

I was hoping that a storm might catch Benny Hill and I could get a picture of one of those two cranes building the old folks homes getting a strike!!!

[chionomaniac]

I was hoping that a storm might catch Benny Hill and I could get a picture of one of those two cranes building the old folks homes getting a strike!!!

That would be good - but i haven't experienced a top notch storm in BH since I moved there. I was in Brighton for last years only proper storms.

[A.J]

I was hoping that a storm might catch Benny Hill and I could get a picture of one of those two cranes building the old folks homes getting a strike!!!

Worth keeping your eyes peeled to the south later on today and especially tomorrow Robin as high-res output raises potential for Kent Clippers imported from France

[Coast]

Worth keeping your eyes peeled to the south later on today and especially tomorrow Robin as high-res output raises potential for Kent Clippers imported from France

Still too far away from my desk though!!!!!

[DeepSnow]

Friday would look good for my area seeming im going to be on my way to Gatwick for the night ready to fly away Saturday! Aha will be really gutted if I end up hearing of storms here whilst im away and probably won't get anything

Edited July 3, 2012 by DeepSnow

[Nick F]

We do seem to have been in the CAPE avoidance zone this summer!

That's the trouble when you have a SW'erly flow, onshore wind brings drier more stable air at the sfc off the still cool channel which tends to limit surface based CAPE across the SE. SE tends to do better in a slacker flow or westerly flows or when plumes with EMLs destabilise bringing elevated storms across the Channel from France.

Small risk of thunder across Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland today. More widespread chance of thunderstorms Wednesday as the air gets a little warmer and moister ahead of cold front moving in slowly from the west. Thursday and Friday seeing an unstable well-mixed rPm airmass circulating around a low moving in to the SW of the UK. 20-30 knots of 0-6km shear generally Weds and Thurs, so some organisation of storms with hail, locally torrential rain and gusty winds possible, wind shear weaker by Friday even though CAPE increases - so hail main threat. Can't really see any organised severe threat this week with deep layer and low-level shear fairly weak-modest, certainly not like last Thursday.