Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 28th June 2012>

[Mesoscale]

Anyone know if there will be any decent french imports during July? I hope so. Could do with a decent one such as the years of 2005/6

its hard enough predicting storms even one day in advance let alone for a whole month.

[Evening thunder]

BBC news forecast mentioned the risk of thunderstorms breaking out in areas such as Wales, the Midlands and the SW tomorrow afternoon, interesting as the GFS shows very little CAPE down here. It seems the BBC have discovered the word 'thunderstorm' unlike the forecasts I saw for last Thursday!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Have not really had time to look at the charts yet, but the other day next thursday/friday was looking good.

Towards the end of August/Start of September is when we normally do will from plumes/imports.

Lewis

Yeah, I was thinking the same mate. Really hoping that low keeps to the Southwest of the UK and keeps going south. Chances of one being drawn up in alignment with the whole UK will be a lot higher then . Fingers crossed.

[Liam J]

The storm risk maps look pretty good for most of the upcoming week, the risk becoming quite widespread after midweek.

Edited July 1, 2012 by Liam J

[Lewis]

The storm risk maps look pretty good for most of the upcoming week, the risk becoming quite widespread after midweek.

There is certainly the potential there, nothing for severe, or supportive for thunderstorms, be more of a case of "thundery showers".

Lewis

[Andy Bown]

BBC news forecast mentioned the risk of thunderstorms breaking out in areas such as Wales, the Midlands and the SW tomorrow afternoon, interesting as the GFS shows very little CAPE down here. It seems the BBC have discovered the word 'thunderstorm' unlike the forecasts I saw for last Thursday!

It will depend on whether the sun can break through once the persistent rain/drizzle has gone, however there will likely be a lot of low cloud/mist in the warm

sector - but we are at the strongest sun time of the year and it should clear all but areas East of a line from Bath to Weymouth by early afternoon.

I suspect anything that does develop will form in a line stretching SW-NE somewhere from Devon - SE Wales but without much good viewing of the cloud

formations due to the low cloud/mist.

[Mixer 85]

BBC news forecast mentioned the risk of thunderstorms breaking out in areas such as Wales, the Midlands and the SW tomorrow afternoon, interesting as the GFS shows very little CAPE down here. It seems the BBC have discovered the word 'thunderstorm' unlike the forecasts I saw for last Thursday!

Yeah Met Eireann also seem to have changed their tune towards thunder, forecasting potential for tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday! It's rare that they even mention the word. Perhaps this is the week I finally get a storm. Quite confident about tomorrow with GFS showing lots of potential. Hopefully not too much cloud about to hamper convection.

[Deluxe]

Recent developments might have scared them into mentioning it!

[P-M]

I know, I remember last Thursday morning's forecast on the local news here and was very uninspiring. He said the odd chance of a thundery shower in the east but heavier towards the west of the region and I remember thinking how crap considering I had built myself up. Then BOOM Thursday evening! Maybe this week holds more potential for some areas of the UK.

I am looking forward to this week but don't think I will see anything like I did on Thursday for some years !

[Liam J]

There is certainly the potential there, nothing for severe, or supportive for thunderstorms, be more of a case of "thundery showers".

Lewis

Not expecting anything severe but i'll take a thundery shower in my storm starved location, I might have to get myself on a storm chase if I don't get the goods soon.

I seem to remember the TV forecasts last Thursday mentioning ''thundery showers'' breaking out, just a bit LOL more like supercells breaking out causing the most severe convective weather seen in many peoples lifetimes! I remember John Hammond broadcasting after the 6pm news he mentioned supercells.

Edited July 1, 2012 by Liam J

[Bobby]

The Met Office maps show some heavy downpours indeed moving up from the SW

[Liam J]

I was only aware of the one supercell - the one that led to the development of the tornado(es) in Lincolnshire. You could make out the hook echo on radar on that particular storm, not so with the others (at least I couldn't).

The storms during the morning across Wales and the West Midlands were part of a larger MCS. The storm that brought golf ball-sized hail and strong convective gusts to Hinckley was just a severe thunderstorm (obviously). The large hail was, in all likelihood, a result of updraft/downdraft seperation, so the cell that produced the hail was very much organised, but still not a supercell - which is defined as a thunderstorm that is characterised by a persistently-rotating updraft. Certainly no evidence to suggest that was the case for the majority of the cells that broke out on Thursday.

You'd think that the 'supercells' were widespread if you listen to the video and Johns explanation, the very large hail was only localised and was associated with the same cell that produced the tornado I think? NE England was also hit very hard by severe thunderstorms, not supercells although many people have uploaded videos onto Youtube from Newcastle etc using the words 'supercell' in the heading title.

Edited July 1, 2012 by Liam J

[Evening thunder]

It will depend on whether the sun can break through once the persistent rain/drizzle has gone, however there will likely be a lot of low cloud/mist in the warm

sector - but we are at the strongest sun time of the year and it should clear all but areas East of a line from Bath to Weymouth by early afternoon.

I suspect anything that does develop will form in a line stretching SW-NE somewhere from Devon - SE Wales but without much good viewing of the cloud

formations due to the low cloud/mist.

Good post that's what I was thinking too, I can remember heavy showers breaking out in similar situations in the past. If I had to I would guess that there wouldn't be too many cells that reach 'thunderstorm' status, e.g more than a few rumbles, though I can't really say as I haven't looked at charts such as cloud top heights.

With reference to Thursday's storms I think I remember Paul S saying he thought there was likely 3 supercells based on radar appearance, with 2 other cells possibly showing some characteristics. Although I'd guess for proper confirmation you'd need observations from on the ground

Edited July 1, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Paul]

Be great if someone kept the rad. imagery from that afternoon.

We've got the radar data and will be reproducing it for people to study / look back on.

[Bobby]

There you go

That's a cell that produced confirmed tornadoes

[Lewis]

There you go

That's a cell that produced confirmed tornadoes

Me and Del got to spurn point as it pushed in to the N Sea, some lovely CG's was a very active cell.

[Bobby]

Great.

Cheers. Certainly much further north than the Leics cell. Also, that cell in the image looks like it'd be heading straight for Sleaford, though now I can't remember what the exact storm motions were lol -- was it generally NE or more ENE?

The Met Office produced this video of the radar as the storms developed

[viking_smb]

cardiff and newport acting as the breeding ground.

[Bobby]

cardiff and newport acting as the breeding ground.

The whole MCS/Supercell that hit the Midlands/E England pretty much started above my house. Awoke to several loud bangs and flashes but the rain barely wet the ground as it all moved a few miles N

The start of it all, around 6:30-7:30am

I found a tree nearby that had been stuck by lightning by that storm, I'll get some photos tomorrow

So all you people in the MIdlands that got battered can thank me

[viking_smb]

CF48 that looks like merthyr to me

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

CF48 that looks like merthyr to me

Yep, Merthyr is CF47 and CF48. I left there a long time ago (1974)

[A.J]

Re. supercells...I refer members to one of Paul Sherman's post's ...... http://forum.netweat...40#entry2327012

In his opinion at least 3 high precip Supercells developed over the east Midlands, and I'd take Paul's analysis without hesitation because as we all know, Paul has more experience of supercells than any other storm chaser in the UK

[Lewis]

Re. supercells...I refer members to one of Paul Sherman's post's ...... http://forum.netweat...40#entry2327012

In his opinion at least 3 high precip Supercells developed over the east Midlands, and I'd take Paul's analysis without hesitation because as we all know, Paul has more experience of supercells than any other storm chaser in the UK

Brilliant day for East Midlands & Lincolnshire.

Lincoln is becoming the storm capital of the U.K.

Lewis

[A.J]

Brilliant day for East Midlands & Lincolnshire.

Lincoln is becoming the storm capital of the U.K.

Lewis

Yes, a day that will live long in the memory for many of us without a shadow of doubt

[Mixer 85]

Radar timelapse of Thursday.