Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 28th June 2012>

[DubWeatherAddict]

A Small shelf cloud over Dublin short time ago

Edited July 2, 2012 by DubWeatherAddict

[Lewis]

Looking at the latest GFS the potential is there for some pretty nasty storms. 1000 j/kg of cape and a negative lifted index spells one thing if other conditions are favorable, and that's THUNDERSTORMS!

Best thing about this week, is that there's enough potential UK wide, so less people are likely to miss out, that would be great for everyone to see some thunderstorms. Maybe then Liam will be able to lock that "NO storms group" thread

Edited July 2, 2012 by Humber

[Bobby]

The BBC Wales presenter mention things turning 'scary' from Thursday with slow moving thunderstorms, I guess that refers to local flooding which I think looks an inevitablity this week with stalling thunderstorms and fronts.

[Mesoscale]

Im putting in an offical complaint to mother nature now. absolutley dreadful weather one nice but very humid day but was on the day that the severe stroms formed in the midlands and the NE. and this week looks like nothing for these parts its a shame really that our weather isn't equal considering we are a relatively small island/s is that so much to ask for?

Edited July 2, 2012 by Mesoscale

[mattyk1985]

These are the charts I found for that date.

500hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00120050831.gif

850hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00220050831.gif

I dont know where you can find archived CAPE charts or lightning but would love to know.

Edit: This was midnight 1st September 05.

500hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00120050901.gif

850hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00220050901.gif

Thanks alot for that. That storm is one of the best I can remember witnessing and the last decent storm we've had round here.

[Sainsbo]

Thanks alot for that. That storm is one of the best I can remember witnessing and the last decent storm we've had round here

I remember a real nasty T-Storm hitting here in 05. Did the one you are talking about hit Swindon?

[mattyk1985]

I remember a real nasty T-Storm hitting here in 05. Did the one you are talking about hit Swindon?

No idea, This one started around 6pm ish(I think) and it went on overnight. So I'm guessing it was a pretty large storm so its possible.

Edited July 2, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Jane Louise]

Looking at the latest GFS the potential is there for some pretty nasty storms. 1000 j/kg of cape and a negative lifted index spells one thing if other conditions are favorable, and that's THUNDERSTORMS!

Best thing about this week, is that there's enough potential UK wide, so less people are likely to miss out, that would be great for everyone to see some thunderstorms. Maybe then Liam will be able to lock that "NO storms group" thread

Hmmm why would Liam lock it when it's my yearly thread!! Nah sorry, I open one every year! you only got to see how many of us have been in there for the past six years!

[Carl46Wrexham]

The BBC Wales presenter mention things turning 'scary' from Thursday with slow moving thunderstorms, I guess that refers to local flooding which I think looks an inevitablity this week with stalling thunderstorms and fronts.

harumph!

Believe it when I see it

Edited July 2, 2012 by No thunder here!

[Liam J]

Looking at the latest GFS the potential is there for some pretty nasty storms. 1000 j/kg of cape and a negative lifted index spells one thing if other conditions are favorable, and that's THUNDERSTORMS!

Best thing about this week, is that there's enough potential UK wide, so less people are likely to miss out, that would be great for everyone to see some thunderstorms. Maybe then Liam will be able to lock that "NO storms group" thread

I would be punished very severely by Jane if I locked that thread!! lol... Unfortunately for some of us in the NSC we will never leave regardless of how good the model outputs are looking! Sad fact, I'll probably still be a resident for a long time to come yet..... I just want one decent VERY SEVERE storm, oh sorry not allowed to wish for them kind of events are we..... hehe

BTW Thursday is looking the best bet imo.

Edited July 2, 2012 by Liam J

[Lewis]

I would be punished very severely by Jane if I locked that thread!! lol... Unfortunately for some of us in the NSC we will never leave regardless of how good the model outputs are looking! Sad fact, I'll probably still be a resident for a long time to come yet..... I just want one decent VERY SEVERE storm, oh sorry not allowed to wish for them kind of events are we..... hehe

BTW Thursday is looking the best bet imo.

haha, it'll come soon Liam your just in an unlucky location at the moment, you'll probably get 10 feet of snow over winter, whilst us in the East will get nothing. lol

lewis

[Jane Louise]

I would be punished very severely by Jane if I locked that thread!! lol... Unfortunately for some of us in the NSC we will never leave regardless of how good the model outputs are looking! Sad fact, I'll probably still be a resident for a long time to come yet..... I just want one decent VERY SEVERE storm, oh sorry not allowed to wish for them kind of events are we..... hehe

BTW Thursday is looking the best bet imo.

Lol

Oooh Liam noooooo you mustn't hope for a severe storm, you should know that by now! anyway it's looking really good this week so much potential there. Will we all be out of the NSC? time will tell i'm sure .

[Liam J]

haha, it'll come soon Liam your just in an unlucky location at the moment, you'll probably get 10 feet of snow over winter, whilst us in the East will get nothing. lol

lewis

Very unlucky but fingers crossed for this week!! 10 feet of snow here hmmm ....We'll need a stalled front down the Western side of the UK with an E/SE feed of frigid continental air undercutting!! Feb 1996 style.

[Lewis]

Very unlucky but fingers crossed for this week!! 10 feet of snow here hmmm ....We'll need a stalled front down the Western side of the UK with an E/SE feed of frigid continental air undercutting!! Feb 1996 style.

you make me laugh Liam always bring humor to the discussion thread.

I actually think you'll see some storms this week! Don't quote me on it though

[Liam J]

Lol

Oooh Liam noooooo you mustn't hope for a severe storm, you should know that by now! anyway it's looking really good this week so much potential there. Will we all be out of the NSC? time will tell i'm sure .

Oh god Jane I want the full the works, humongous hail, CG lightning seconds apart and a twister for good measure! (Kno*ker look away now!) hehe. Yes time will tell in the coming days but I'm not gonna get excited just yet as more often than not it just leads onto disappointment....

[Liam J]

I actually think you'll see some storms this week! Don't quote me on it though

Yes and I'll also quote on the 10 ft of snow, you'll have a lot to answer for should it go wrong! LOL

Anyway, back to the discussion on this weeks potential.....

Edited July 2, 2012 by Liam J

[ardsar]

Metoffice have an early warning out for Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset on Thursday for Thunderstorms and torrential showers. I'm sure it will move location by Thursday lol.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Metoffice have an early warning out for Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset on Thursday for Thunderstorms and torrential showers. I'm sure it will move location eastwards by Thursday lol.

Corrected for sake of accuracy.

[Jane Louise]

Hmmmm, we just need to nudge that warning up a little towards Glos. Oh, and Wrexham I'm sure we'll get more warnings for almost everyone as time goes on! Saturday is looking great for Cheltenham.

[carl1980]

Very heavy shower for the last 10 mins,feeling very humid now

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Thanks alot for that. That storm is one of the best I can remember witnessing and the last decent storm we've had round here.

God, that storm was the most epic one ive seen in the UK ever. 31 AUG 2005 will never be forgotten. Strikes every 2-3 seconds, with anvil top lightning + crawlers to forks striking 100M away !! struck S lincs at around 10pm and lasted until like 1am.

[Sunny Android]

Metoffice have an early warning out for Cornwall, Devon, Somerset and Dorset on Thursday for Thunderstorms and torrential showers. I'm sure it will move location by Thursday lol.

Careful now, don't mis-quote them so early .... there is a big 'OR' in their first sentence and there is 'potential ' !

Heavy showers or thunderstorms are likely on Thursday

with the potential for some heavy rainfall in places.

[mattyk1985]

God, that storm was the most epic one ive seen in the UK ever. 31 AUG 2005 will never be forgotten. Strikes every 2-3 seconds, with anvil top lightning + crawlers to forks striking 100M away !! struck S lincs at around 10pm and lasted until like 1am.

Best storm Ive ever seen, hoping for something like it this year. I'm just curious how many lightning strikes were detected that day lol.

[Hodgheg]

Looks like some good things coming from the new week, Its the most unsettled weather ive seen. Pleanty of energy so im happy.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Hmmmm, we just need to nudge that warning up a little towards Glos. Oh, and Wrexham I'm sure we'll get more warnings for almost everyone as time goes on! Saturday is looking great for Cheltenham.

You can add Crewe and Ellesmere Port to my location as well Jane. Our areas combined form the most perfect thunderstorm deflector known to mankind.