Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 28th June 2012>

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Just like up in south Lincs, the wash seems to have an effect of decaying storms as they move over :/. This happens when a sea breeze from the north-east comes into the equation. If there is no presence of it, then its a decent area for storms when they do come.

Edited July 2, 2012 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Aaron]

The French give us nothing!!!!! We get more from them in Eurovision than we do in thunderstorms!!!

Lincolnshire is best - storms start off in wales and have nothing but relatively flat land to travel over.. no high ground destroying convection and no large bodies of water being a nuisance.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yeah i know. Normally it is a really good place. Its just ive noticed sometimes when winds are light and variable, any storm that comes near the wash seems to get broken up by the shear of the cool sea breeze, thus losing a lot of its energy, kinda frustrates me !

[Supacell]

Bank Bank Bank BAAAANNNK.. Oh for the love of god. BANK! Think of the children and BANK!

BANK!!!!

I take it you like the latest runs then?

As said earlier, something for most of us this week. No, not the severe thunderstorms of last Thursday, but then still pretty good synoptics by our countrys low standards. I too would bank those charts for later this week.

In the shorter term i am interested in the possibility (low but still realistic) of something later this afternoon. By about 7pm there looks to be some CAPE build across North Wales and into Northern England. If the sun can get out and give us some warming then I may just squeeze out a rumble or two later this evening.

Regarding best place for thunderstorms - i agree that Lincolnshire is probably the best place and you cannot forget NE England either. A place that used to be one of the worst for storms has become one of the best. Newcastle area stole the title last year and could do again - especially if these weeks charts verify.

Edited July 2, 2012 by Supacell

[Lewis]

It's been one of them days today, is there anyone that can cheer me up by telling me I'll see some storms this week, head too heavy and eyes hurting too much to see the wonderful colorful netweather model charts.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Showers seemingly developing in Wales now, with some heavier pulses showing across south Wales and the Bristol Channel

[NUT]

Some seriously heavy rain here today

[Alex95]

The NE could do pretty well later this week - we often do in slack thundery SW flows. Wednesday in particular looks a treat at the moment for most of the North and East. Compared with last Thursday it should feel quite tame if we do get anything, but these storms can still be quite potent.

[Lynxus]

Few sferics appearing in ireland. Looks like some lovely little showers out there.

Odd little line appeared from the SW Cornwall running up to SE Wales also..

[Stormeh]

Some seriously heavy rain here today

Yeah its been like that all day, just look at the radar over the Glasgow area. If only it was thunderstorms eh?

[Liam J]

Moderate to heavy persistent rain here, rained on and off all day. As mentioned above a few potent showers firing off over Ireland with a small amount of lightning strikes detected on the NW strike map.

Models looking half decent around mid week for some convective activity....

Edited July 2, 2012 by Liam J

[A.J]

LOL

Yeah

I fear that if you really want storms you need to be in the brum area. That seems to always be the hotspot of any good stuff.

I think a mixture of Cotswolds and the cooler 7-estuary plays havoc on the air around here.

Last thursday apart, the highlighted quote is the funniest thing I've ever read in this forum!!!

[Nick L]

Last thursday apart, the highlighted quote is the funniest thing I've ever read in this forum!!!

Indeed! I haven't had a storm for well over 2 years here.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

been drizzling near enough all day

[Lynxus]

Indeed! I haven't had a storm for well over 2 years here.

And yet when ever i watch storms head north or come from the west they almost always hit brum head on.

[viking_smb]

could it be something about brum? that mother nature likes.......... got something in mind though lol

[Supacell]

It's been one of them days today, is there anyone that can cheer me up by telling me I'll see some storms this week, head too heavy and eyes hurting too much to see the wonderful colorful netweather model charts.

From what i can see, today is the worst day this week for storm potential and never really saw any risk for me or you, although i am still hopeful that could be a rumble or two this evening if any sun has broken through (it certainly hasn't here all day ).

Things really ramp up from tomorrow onwards with every day looking good, some days bordering on great for storm potential. I am loving todays runs and just hope it continues to look good.

[Mesoscale]

wow looking at the GFS cape and LI from 00 to 384 the SE is left out once again!!! it just dances around the rest of the UK except the S/SE :/ how awful!

[AWD]

From an IMBY perspective, I quite like the GFS 12z. From Wednesday onwards the potential gets greater and greater, peaking on Saturday with Cape of 1000kj and a LI of -3.

But even the end of the working week has respectful cape and LI for my area.

On a UK note though, northern England and Southern Scotland has good potential everyday this week now, with the chance of some more severe thunderstorms at the end of the week.

The only place that does miss out on the 12z run, is the South East, but this could yet change.

Edited July 2, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Chris.R]

Well the sun has been out for a good half hour here getting some good insolation going. Just had another heavy shower. I think something could kick off soon if the sun keeps coming out with cape building to over 500 and a LI of -1 this evening.

[Backtrack]

Low pressure will be in the charge throughout this week, at times we source some warmer, moist, unstable air from the South. With the instability, will come the potential for some thunderstorms to develop.

As there is a lot of widespread energy about this week, and because the risk zone is such a large area, I have pretty much issued a watch for a majority of the United Kingdom. As from Wednesday I will be issuing separate warning maps for severe weather. If in the mean time the weather is severe enough I shall issue flash warning maps. Although most areas are likely to see thundery showers develop with some thunderstorms, areas greatest at risk at the moment is SE England, East Midlands, Central Southern England, Yorkshire & Lincolnshire.

Around 1000-1200 j/kg of CAPE with a negative Lifted Index (LI) of around -4 at times is showing on the models, so at times these storms may be quite severe.

Curtsy of Lewis.

Edited July 2, 2012 by Backtrack

[AWD]

South East England???

I see the South East as the area at minimal risk of storms using the latest 12z data! Although I do agree, anywhere could see storms.

Edited July 2, 2012 by Active Weather Dude

[Aaron]

From what i can see, today is the worst day this week for storm potential and never really saw any risk for me or you, although i am still hopeful that could be a rumble or two this evening if any sun has broken through (it certainly hasn't here all day ).

Things really ramp up from tomorrow onwards with every day looking good, some days bordering on great for storm potential. I am loving todays runs and just hope it continues to look good.

Not expecting anything like Thursday but I would love something like 15th of June 2009..

For reference, here's the lightning map for 15th of June 2009..

Edited July 2, 2012 by Aaron

[mattyk1985]

Liking the charts from the latest runs, looking at it I think most will at least hear thunder this week.

I am hoping someone could help me, I remember seeing a beast of a storm here on 31/08/05 with constant lightning and it pretty much went on all night, Im just wondering if anyone could find me or tell me where to locate, some charts etc such as cape and lightning detection for that day.

[Karl83]

Liking the charts from the latest runs, looking at it I think most will at least hear thunder this week.

I am hoping someone could help me, I remember seeing a beast of a storm here on 31/08/05 with constant lightning and it pretty much went on all night, Im just wondering if anyone could find me or tell me where to locate, some charts etc such as cape and lightning detection for that day.

These are the charts I found for that date.

500hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00120050831.gif

850hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00220050831.gif

I dont know where you can find archived CAPE charts or lightning but would love to know.

Edit: This was midnight 1st September 05.

500hpa: http://www.wetterzen...00120050901.gif

850hpa: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00220050901.gif

Edited July 2, 2012 by Thunder_Bolt