Model Output Discussion 30/06/2012

[Snowyowl9]

Signs of improvment.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

[Scorcher]

GFS looks good from next weekend onwards with the high having more control over us and the lows staying further north but it only lasts a few days before the GFS has its default Greenland high/mid Atalnitic ridge and its back to cool wet rubbish again

Sometimes I wonder if you look at totally different charts from me, I can't see the Greenland High at all on the GFS, could you elaborate? Seems to be any excuse to be negative, let's just be happy about the huge improvements from two weeks ago.

[nick sussex]

It looks like there will be a change to a more typical summer pattern for the UK for a time, pressure always higher towards the south with occasional ridging ne of the Azores high, low pressure and most rain towards the nw.

Although the NAEFS then wants to develop higher pressure towards Greenland deep into FI this needn't mean a return to a washout of the last month, its important to see where the core of those heights set up.

A western based negative NAO can still deliver some decent drier interludes, so a probable drier interlude towards next weekend then more uncertainty, we'll have to see what the ECM comes up with later.

If we do see those heights developing towards Greenland then initially low pressure developing to the west may draw some much warmer conditions up from the south.

As for the start of the Olympics it would be ironic if after all this dismal weather in the UK and thoughts that conditions would favour the home athletes that a western based negative NAO delivered hotter conditions with a thunderstorm risk!

Edited July 15, 2012 by nick sussex

[Snowy Easterly]

Sometimes I wonder if you look at totally different charts from me, I can't see the Greenland High at all on the GFS, could you elaborate? Seems to be any excuse to be negative, let's just be happy about the huge improvements from two weeks ago.

Well its deep FI so it probably won't be there the next run, but heights do want to build in the atlantic and the high over us doesn't last long about a week, people always seem to think that when high pressure builds over us it will stay there for weeks and weeks, when in reality hot weather in this country only lasts for a few days

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-324.png?12

if im negative you are most certainly biased to hot weather, like your name suggests, anyway its not about being positive or negative its what the charts actually show. and on yesterday's run there was a band of heavy rain clearly over central areas for next sunday on the GFS and you said high pressure was over us

Edited July 15, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Milhouse]

I await tonights ECM with fingers crossed but i've noticed a slight move in the right direction from the GFS for a change. The high for next weekend seemed to be being pushed further and further south by each run until the low threatened to scupper any chance of a meaningful ridge. Now we have the low tracking over Iceland without troubling us. The only fly in the ointment may be a lingering front over Scotland that the GFS is showing.

[Methuselah]

Can we please try to concentrate on what the models are actually saying?

For what it's worth I, just having perused the GFS 12Z and, can't find any strong signal for a Greenland high-pressure system anything like the one that's plagued us for months...Of course that doesn't mean that, come the next output, such a system won't be there again...

[phil nw.]

Well its deep FI so it probably won't be there the next run, but heights do want to build in the atlantic and the high over us doesn't last long about a week, people always seem to think that when high pressure builds over us it will stay there for weeks and weeks, when in reality hot weather in this country only lasts for a few days

http://modeles.meteo...fs-0-324.png?12

if im negative you are most certainly biased to hot weather, like your name suggests, anyway its not about being positive or negative its what the charts actually show. and on yesterday's run there was a band of heavy rain clearly over central areas for next sunday on the GFS and you said high pressure was over us

Hi SE,

In fairness that height build in the image that you link is only a transient ridge-if you follow the next few frames you can see that it moves eastwards in the general westerly flow.

Anyway let`s not attack other members it does the thread no service.

So let`s keep discussion friendly-it`s only weather charts.

[Snowy Easterly]

Hi SE,

In fairness that height build in the image that you link is only a transient ridge-if you follow the next few frames you can see that it moves eastwards in the general westerly flow.

Anyway let`s not attack other members it does the thread no service.

So let`s keep discussion friendly-it`s only weather charts.

Yes thats true, but many a time a Greenland high has built out of nowhere, it doesn't mean it will happen again though, and we will most likely return to some sort of westerly spell, after a few days of high pressure, its a shame that the high can't stick over us for weeks and weeks like it does everywhere else

Edited July 15, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[Weather-history]

Whilst everyone's eyes seem fixated on over the horizon, in the near future, there is potential of more flooding. The UKMO 12z precipt charts for 60hrs and 72hrs look really wet for NW England.

[Snowy Easterly]

Whilst everyone's eyes seem fixated on over the horizon, in the near future, there is potential of more flooding. The UKMO 12z precipt charts for 60hrs and 72hrs look really wet for NW England.

quite right, the pressure charts can catch people out if they don't bother looking at the precipitation charts, i mean this chart looks average/mediocre, yet there is actually heavy rain over the north and central areas

[PubliusEnigma]

Seems as though HP is trying to re-establish it's summer position over Greenland as we head towards the end of July. With the usual British Isles summer trough, back in residence.

The Azores High stubbornly seems to remain stuck in mid atlantic. The remainder of Europe away from the British

Isles continues to enjoy warm summer weather, which has been the case for most of Europe this summer. The worst

of any flooding at this stage should be across northern areas, although some hefty showers in the south could well

add to the huge rainfall total over the last 3 or 4 months.

Edited July 15, 2012 by PubliusEnigma

[Frank Trough]

Seems as though HP is trying to re-establish it's summer position over Greenland as we head towards the end of July. With the usual British Isles summer trough, back in residence.

The Azores High stubbornly seems to remain stuck in mid atlantic. The remainder of Europe away from the British

Isles continues to enjoy warm summer weather, which has been the case for most of Europe this summer. The worst

of any flooding at this stage should be across northern areas, although some hefty showers in the south could well

add to the huge rainfall total over the last 3 or 4 months.

that's at t+ what? and the operational has virtually no support for that low pressure anyway. That's a fabulously cherry-picked negative chart - interesting you chose to go all the way out there in FI to pick it.

looks better for the south at least in the reliable - and beyond - compared to what we've had.

[Milhouse]

It looks like the ECM has recovered from its wobble of the last 2 runs and it looks like its panic over. Up to T+144 its going to plan with low pressure tracking well to the northwest of the UK and high pressure about to take control

And the chart at t+168

Edited July 15, 2012 by Milhouse

[Evening thunder]

Seems as though HP is trying to re-establish it's summer position over Greenland as we head towards the end of July. With the usual British Isles summer trough, back in residence.

The Azores High stubbornly seems to remain stuck in mid atlantic. The remainder of Europe away from the British

Isles continues to enjoy warm summer weather, which has been the case for most of Europe this summer. The worst

of any flooding at this stage should be across northern areas, although some hefty showers in the south could well

add to the huge rainfall total over the last 3 or 4 months.

Lol, and before that chart, on the very same model run, we have this chart:

Hello heatwave. Doesn't quite fit into your analysis there. Obviously unlikely to verify due to the time frame but in that respect your chart is even less likely. Due to our location we will always have some cooler unsettled charts in some model runs that go out to T+384 whatever the outlook anyway.

It's not just us with cool temps either I have seen anomaly charts showing quite a few parts of west/north Europe having below average anomalies. For example today much of Europe north of the southern countries is only in the teens:

(I think this chart may change through the evening as it is updated)

Edit: Forgot to mention the decidedly un-high pressure over Greenland for the end of July if that GFS 12Z run is to be believed. However of course as always only time will tell.

Edited July 15, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

Promising signs from ECM tonight with low pressure starting to build over greenland and iceland

[legritter]

GOOD EVENING ALL .i will post my thoughts soon ,but am a bit rusty as iv concentrated more on conv thread .spent hrs checking up on you modellers from across the pond during june and first half of july . all i can say at the moment quickly looking at tonights charts is ,monsoon to resume mon day tues ,then some action for most wed /thurs , and that friend of ours mr azores trying to join the party . with a few blips on the way . will it have much clowt left after its winter antics . just waiting for ECM to update , and jet s data tomorrow ,cheers

[Milhouse]

And right out to t+240 the ECM looks very settled and warm

[Summer Sun]

A good run from ECM tonight in FI with high pressure starting to build more, thanks to low pressure returning home to Greenland and Iceland

I would take that run now

[Thundery wintry showers]

As Weather-history noted, a particularly wet spell is looking probable from late Tuesday into midday Wednesday with a slow moving front and persistent heavy rain, which may again add to any existing flooding problems. Otherwise a generally cloudy start to the week but not particularly wet in the east. On Wednesday there is also the possibility of some thundery activity over Lincolnshire and East Anglia, and possibly more widely over England on Thursday/Friday as the weather turns brighter and more showery in the subsequent slack north to north-westerly regime.

Although the fine detail for next Sunday onwards will continue to change, there is growing agreement that after a day or two with a ridge of high pressure, sunny intervals and increasingly isolated showers, a tropical maritime incursion will follow. For what it's worth, the GFS run suggests that the high pressure will get far north enough to prevent the Tm air from bringing much moisture to much of England and Wales, so probably dry, sunny and increasingly warm south of the Scottish border but cloudier over Scotland. The ECMWF run has a weak trough wandering around so maybe not quite as clear-cut- of course all will become clear nearer the time, but there is genuine potential here for something both sunny and warm to arise over a wide area of the country.

[A Winter's Tale]

Good Evening everyone.

Despite some rain earlier on, today has been a 4th consecutive decent day up here in Glasgow with the showers in Scotland dying away. Elsewhere, it was a drier day with less showers and some good spells of sunshine - but will can this continue into the next 5 days? My answer would be that we won't quite see the same sunny and dry weather of today next week as we develop a SWly flow and cloud cover and rainfall will spread eastwards over the British Isles. Everyone should see some rain at some stage and everyone should have some drier spells but generally there'll be less widespread and undisturbed sunshine and there will be heavy rain about and most concerningly there is a definite possibility of flooding in some western and northern regions. The rainfall on Tuesday night into Wednesday around western and northern areas is one to follow as heavy rain is expected in hilly areas in Wales and NW England. Thursday looks like a drier day as we develop a NWly wind bringing some showers.

Our series of our weekly washout Fridays is likely to end as next Friday looks set to be the driest Friday in quite a while. The latest GFS run shows high pressure moving in from the SW on Saturday but low pressure to the north of this in Iceland is shown to bring quite strong and warm SWly winds for northern areas as southern areas remain more settled.

In the charts beyond, low pressure is further north than it has been in a long while and southern areas hang on to high pressure as a westerly regime continues. Air pressure over Greenland is also lower at 1008mb.

Beyond this, low pressure at times settles near the UK and warm Southerly and South easterly winds become an influence and the air pressure over Greenland fluctuates between 1008mb and 1016mb. What happens beyond next week remains to be seen but there is definetly a general trend for high pressure to our SW to become a major players as heights to our NW lose its grip and we see high pressure starting to influence and reach the south of the British Isles. But I'll remain cautious about the more intricate details that will unfold as we get through next week and enter this potential spell of more settled conditions in the south as there's a huge variety of outcomes and eventualities that could happen. The important thing to take from recent runs is that we've learnt that changes are afoot but it's now a case of following how it evolves in the runs over the coming days and it's worth listening to the wise words and thoughts from the experienced, wise and the experts as there's still a long way to go until we'll know realisticly what we're likely to experience in the second half of the month - and of course if this doesn't work out for some there's still another month of summer to follow on from what could be a pivotal moment in summer 2012. In the meantime, it's worth having a look at what the next 5 days could have instore for us.

Tonight, most showers will die away except the western coast of Scotland where some light isolated showers are possible. The eastern half of Great Britain will hold on to clear spells overnight but as a system moves in from the SW, Ireland will have an overcast night, western areas will see cloud cover increase and persistent rain will arrive in southern parts of Ireland and the SW. Tonights minima should be 10-15C.

Tomorrow morning will see cloud cover be quite widespread over much of Wales, Ireland and England - some north sea coasts may hang onto some sunshine. Scotland should start of largely dry and sunny with only western and northern areas being overcast and at risk of few showers. There'll be rain around in the southern half and western areas. The main area of rain will be over Wales and the SW and this will move eastwards but the rain should become lighter and there may be a few breaks in it as the rain becomes patchy. The afternoon may see some heavy rain move from Northern Ireland into SW and C Scotland - the majority of England and Wales will be overcast and liable to light and patchy rain that will clear out into the north sea. Northern Scotland will probably be dry and bright for much of the day, but by evening skies may begin to clear in NI and and in parts of England and Wales. Maxima should be 15-18C. Tomorrow night is likely to be dry, quite a few areas with cloudy skies with NE Scotland probably best for clear skies. A dry night is likely except for the odd shower and a new area of rain reaching Ireland. Minima 12-15C.

Tuesday looks like being a generally overcast day for most but quite warm with highs of 17-22C. Ireland, Wales and some central areas of England look like being the wettest places with some but some moisture could be possible anywhere with overcast skies. During Tuesday night and Wednesday, some areas are set for some heavy rain so I'll have a detailed look at this . At the moment, the rain on Tuesday night is set to affect areas surrounding the Irish Sea but this could reach north sea regions in the north of England. Much of Scotland (away from the SW) and the SE of Britain looks like being the driest with only a few clear patches among the clouds. Minima 13-16C. Wednesday looks being a wet day for much of England and Wales but the southern half will see lighter and more patchy rain and Ireland could also see pathcy light rain too. The north of Scotland looks like being the driest but light rain is possible here too. Maxima 13-20C.

Now for a closer look at the heavy rain by looking at the netweather gfs rain charts for Tuesday Night and Wednesday:

The netweather rainfall map shows the suspect arriving in Ireland at 6pm Tuesday evening with green colours near the west coast of the Republic.

By 9pm, the heavy rain moves westwards with central areas of Ireland having the wettest conditions and some heavy rain also arriving into N Wales, the Liverpool/Manchester.

Midnight, much of Ireland is wet and and some heavy rain over the north of England too and reaching eastwards to the north sea coast. Southern parts of Scotland and Northern parts of Wales also experiencing some of this rainfall. The Cumbrian Hills also being affected by the rain.

At 3am, as you can see some of the heaviest rain has reached eastern areas with some green colours to the north of the Humber on the map below. Again, it's wet over much of Ireland and central, northern and western areas seeing the heaviest of the rain and some of this heavy rain moving across the Irish sea into SW Scotland and NW England.

The heavy rain starts to leave Ireland with the heaviest of the precipitation being in the north. The rainfall in Wales is light on the chart below, and the focus of the hevay rain is in NI, SW Scotland and N England.

Wales by 9am has some heavy precipitation in another hilly area. Ireland becomes drier except for the north where the rain is still heavy but the heaviest is now centred over SE Scotland.

Midday - the heaviest of the rain over both sides of the border of England and Scotland. Wales, NI remain wet and rainfall also present further south in England,

3pm has the rain starting to break up but plenty of places seeing rainfall and again SE Scotland and some Irish sea coasts of Ireland and Wales having the heaviest of the rainfall.

Wednesday 6pm still has heavy rain in S Scotland and persistent precip in Wales and northern England. Heavy rain in NW Scotland too.

All the way to Thursday 9am, the main areas of overnight rain are NW Scotland, N Wales and SE Scotland.

So some areas could see quite a bit of rainfall. Ireland, Wales, N England and S and NW Scotland are set to have persistent rain and some areas could see 15 hours of heavy rainfall. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html Met office warnings are worth following as we get nearer to the time and forecasts and rainfall charts are also worth looking at to get the finer details as get near to the event. Certainly, quite a few areas are going to be wet and some may see some persistent and heavy rainfall for a considerbale time and some of these regions are already vulnerable to flooding due to the relief of the land. It's definetly one to watch.

Thankfully, at the moment Thursday should be a lot drier with just the remnants of rainfall in a few areas and this should be light and patchy. Southern and western areas are favourable to see some showers but elsewhere it's cloudy and dry - highs of 14-18C. Thursday night could be cool in Scotland as we have a northerly wind. A dry night with just a few showers in the sea to the north of the British Isles and some clear spells are likely - especially along North Sea coasts. Minima of 9-13C.

A recap:

Monday - rain for Wales, sothern half of England, Ireland, S Scotland, clearing and some brightness by evening - Max 15-17C, Min 12-15C.

Tuesday - Overcast, showers and light rain for Ireland, Wales, Central England. Wet night for Ireland, S Scotland, N England. Max 17-22C, Min 13-16C.

Wednesday - Heavy rain for S Scotland/N England and wet for Ireland, NW Scotland and England, some places dry, overcast. Max 13-20C, Min 11-14C.

Thursday - Cloudy, dry for most, showers and some rain in Wales, S England and coasts. dry night with clear skies in places. Max 14-18C, Min 9-13C.

Beyond - Azores High becoming an influece, possibility of change but it's worth being patient and follow how it unfolds as it's still early days - still a pivotal few weeks for summer 2012 though.

[nick sussex]

I certainly agree with AWT sentiments regarding a pivotal few weeks for your summer in the UK.

Of course given the rubbish most of you have had to endure it wouldn't be hard to see an improvement but finally we are seeing the jet edging further north and the limpet high over Greenland weakening.

Looking at the ECM ensemble mean thats pretty close to the operational run upto 240hrs, although looking at the ensemble spreads the track of low pressure could prove a bit more troublesome especially for more northern areas.

The GEFS maps are solidly behind high pressure taking more of a role but at this timeframe its hard to say whether this can get far enough north to deliver a more UK wide decent spell of weather.

At this point I think cautiously optimistic is the best way to look at things.

[4wd]

The Met Office warning for Wednesday only cover the Lakes and North Pennines at the moment I see.

[camiscool]

18z is bad.

[Snowy Easterly]

thats descriptive, cheers mate

[Alex]

Nice ECM run this morning, it eventually brings the ridge to the east of us!

Angular momentum has stalled, however the rise alone should help reduce heights to our north. The GWO has backtracked into phase 2, heading for phase 1, not great for longer term prospects and the MJO is in phase 2 heading for it's central core.

The mixup of these elements show a mixed August yet again but if angular momentum can maintain its levels and perhaps rise a tad then maybe some better weather will be experienced at times.

The fly in the ointment is the QBO and whether this has already peaked?