Model Output Discussion 22/07/12 Onwards.

[Costa Del Fal]

Really promising charts for the week ahead. Temperatures excellent for much of the country and should be plenty of sun on offer. The SE winds could help boost any breakdown but thats a long way away and I certainly will be enjoying the very warm weather on the way. Given GFS underestimation we could be seeing some locally hot conditions again. Afterwards as mentioned, High pressure could get more established over Europe keeping Lows close but not to our East so warmer conditions remaining....hopefully!

[Summer Sun]

so far so good from ECM wednesday to staurday look very settled with temperatures into the mid to high 20's for the south most areas should see temps into the low 20's though

A warm breakdown in a weeks time

Edited August 5, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Cloud 10]

What's this from the ECM?

High pressure over the UK,......in summer........on a Friday.

[paul tall]

LOL, I'm going to Ibiza this weekend!

Typical like, but it'll be nice to have some more warmth and sun before heading off and I don't begrudge those left behind a little bit of summer.

[Frosty.]

A summery spell for everyone to look forward to once we get through to wednesday, a bit of patience is required for the heat but it will come once the anticyclone pushes further east and with low pressure approaching the southwest, a very warm SE'ly flow will develop across the uk with temps into the mid 70's but higher in some parts with 80f + although probably not as hot as it was 10 days ago but still very nice compared to the dross we had in june and the first half of july. FI looks more unsettled but the south & east of the uk could do ok with some warmer and drier interludes with a nw/se split quite probable later. It's worth keeping an eye on the high to the northeast in FI, on future runs it may become a blocking feature and stall low pressure out to the west or at least slow down it's eastward progress.

Edited August 5, 2012 by Frosty039

[ribster]

Why the obsession with the end of the meterological summer?

For as long as i can remember we've had decent warmth and sun in many a September

Because by then, most people are back at work (summer holidays are over), and we have lost around 4 and quarter hours of daylight. Not an awful lot of 'usable' weather when you get home from work at that time of year. Summer ends 31st August, fact. We get the same rubbish every year saying we can get 'summer like' weather in September or October - I'd be surprised if there is a single person on the forum who isn't aware of that, just as you can get 'autumn like' weather in summer. What it smacks of to me, is desperation and disappointment at a rather poor summer.

[jimbo36]

Why the obsession with the end of the meterological summer?

For as long as i can remember we've had decent warmth and sun in many a September

And October, even last year we had 27C+ first week of October

[Bristawl Si]

Because by then, most people are back at work (summer holidays are over), and we have lost around 4 and quarter hours of daylight. Not an awful lot of 'usable' weather when you get home from work at that time of year. Summer ends 31st August, fact.

Fact?!

I think not. I've never heard or been taught that. What a pile of tosh!

Summer holidays over by then?!

Another pile of tosh!

Portugal beckons in Sept.

[Cheese Rice]

Seems to be the same ideology once it's the 1st of March snow can't physically fall from the sky.

I guess as it's the 1st of September soon I should be getting my woolly hat out, don't want to look desperate in front of the none believers.

Edited August 5, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Thundery wintry showers]

I do think with some members it's getting like much of June 2010- the desire for a spell of predominantly warm dry sunny weather, and then when the model outputs show one, latching onto negatives and teeth-gnashing because it isn't high pressure from T+0 to T+180.

While it is not unusual to get anticyclonic summer spells lasting upwards of a few days in Britain, it is harder to get the high to sit in the right place to allow a large majority of the country to have predominantly clear skies. The positioning of the upcoming high pressure looks pretty ideal for this- I keep checking and re-checking the model outputs and I am struggling to find much evidence that skies won't be mostly clear between Thursday and Saturday. A belt of weak frontal cloud over the far north of Scotland on Friday is all I can spot on the latest GFS run.

Until a couple of days ago many longer-term teleconnections and the NOAA 8-14 day outlook were supporting a mid-Atlantic high scenario and a trough over and to the east of Britain but there has been a shift towards a long-term outlook with the trough stuck to the west of the British Isles, which should promote winds from south of west when the weather turns more changeable again.

[Cheese Rice]

Can we bag the 18z please, temperatures in the mid to high twenties from Wednesday to Sunday. Monday looks good, Tuesday looks better the further north you are.

Considering the recent run of below average temperatures its been really nice having temperatures 22\23.c and sunny spells, this continuing next week and getting hot!

[Rollo]

Whether warm/hot.sunny weather occurs in June or another official summer month a fine spell in September or October is to be enjoyed,the only downside as ffar as I am concerned is that (a) the days are shorter and (B) the kids are back to school. However summers like this one do seem to occur occasionally so lets make the best of a bad job.

[William of Walworth]

Loving the optimistic updates.

Lots of positivity for summer preferrers in the near future in most of the latest runs.

Our Thursday to Saturday excursion (may include a beer tent!) in N Oxfordshire looks as if it'll be idyllic. I love model checking sometimes,

OK occasionally ...

[Robbie Garrett]

And October, even last year we had 27C+ first week of October

I think we had 31*C as the hottest here down south east

[shedhead]

All 3 main models suggest pretty much the same this evening, i.e the classic 2 or 3 fine days then a thunderstorm, depending on exactly where you live. Absolutely no sign whatsoever of a protracted fine spell, but at least some hints that a pattern change is still possible for the last week or so of Aug.

[Cheese Rice]

I guess it depends on what you class as a fine spell.

Sunny weather lasting for 6 days with temperatures in the low twenties, creeping up to high twenties by the end of the week. That doesn't include the previous four days of sunny weather with temperatures around 22\23.c. That is ten days of nice warm weather which in my book is a fine spell.

Yes the south will see a blip on Tuesday but that won't affect here with further sunshine to come.

Considering temperatures have been around 13-18.c for some time now this weather is a massive upgrade from the previous chilly weather.

Edited August 5, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[mushymanrob]

But that's my point, Mushy...the pattern's changed (albeit slightly) already??

well if it has then its not significantly different, its still not settled.

Why the obsession with the end of the meterological summer?

For as long as i can remember we've had decent warmth and sun in many a September

can i post this one last time please, i hope people will read it so im not obliged to re-post this.

summer isnt only about warmth.... its about daylight, daylength, hight of the sun, quality of the air (by september the air is musty), its about flowers blooming (i cannot alter the season when my fragrant plants flower, buddlia, jasmine, lillies, all heavily scented to enhance the summer garden), birds singing (they go quiet in autumn). so yes, we can get sunny warm spells in september/october, but like snow in spring, its a poor consolation prize, albeit welcome.

interestingly, this mornings ukmo suggests the breakdown low becomes a ccut off low with pressure holding to our northeast with a ridge connecting it to the azh... IF this happens it will prolong any heat we get (which atm is a two day blip).

[Methuselah]

An interesting run, from the GFS, this morning: LPs staying further to the west and north than earlier in the summer, allowing warmer air to advect north, at times... Consequently, we've lost that annoying pattern of LPs engaging deep, cold air over the southern half of the UK...

With no sign of any dominant HP set-up, I'd suggest a continuance of largely unsettled, but warmer, conditions persisting throughout the foreseeable. But - as with all attempts to make predictions based on model runs - all may change within the time it takes to blink?

[Frosty.]

There is a sting in the tail of the showery trough which has been slow moving across the uk in recent days and there will again be some torrential downpours and localised flooding with thunder and large hail but by tomorrow we should have a less active atmosphere but still with some heavy showers breaking out in the east and some more persistent rain spreading across the southwest and then across parts of southern england. By wednesday it looks drier as high pressure begins to build over the top of the uk and the high then intensifying towards the end of this week and drifting slowly east. Low pressure still looks like moving into the uk by next weekend but a much warmer and more settled spell for all areas later this week with temps around the mid 20's celsius which will feel very nice, perhaps hot by friday in the south and a warm weekend to follow but becoming more unsettled, the gfs 00z shows a warm s'ly flow into next week with low pressure anchored further west and higher pressure to the northeast so at least it's a warm outlook.

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 00z whilst not an outlier was actually the cooler of the members for temperatures, lower for pressure, higher for rainfall than many other members including the control from this weekend onwards. Interesting a few models are also going for a low stuck in the Atlantic next week drawing up a pretty much perfect southerly flow to the UK. Best summery charts of the summer by far. Not that this was difficult!

Certainly temperatures upto 27-28c this week in Central and Southern areas at least and low to mid 20s up North.

[shedhead]

An interesting run, from the GFS, this morning: LPs staying further to the west and north than earlier in the summer, allowing warmer air to advect north, at times... Consequently, we've lost that annoying pattern of LPs engaging deep, cold air over the southern half of the UK...

With no sign of any dominant HP set-up, I'd suggest a continuance of largely unsettled, but warmer, conditions persisting throughout the foreseeable. But - as with all attempts to make predictions based on model runs - all may change within the time it takes to blink?

Morning Pete

To be honest I'm not seeing anything different in the charts between T+168-192hrs to what we saw though the early part of last week. LP might well be anchored in the Atlantic, but again it's nowhere near far enough west to prevent bands of rain/showers pushing northeastwards at times across the UK. Again as early last week the SE and EA will probably do OK out of it, but elsewhere it looks disappointing to say the least.

Edited August 6, 2012 by shedhead

[Uncle_Barty]

Just read a tweet from Matt Hugo to the effect that ECM ensembles hinting at the possibility of some unseasonably deep lows as we move through August. We shall see.

Who knows what will happen after the three fine days and a thunderstorm scenario this week/weekend.

Yes the meterological summer ends 31 August and we can get plenty of fine warm weather after this time.. but this kind of weather after a poor summer is like scoring a goal from the penalty spot in the 5th minute of injury time when you're already 5-0 down, so I know where some of the comments above are coming from.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Jim_AFCB

[Evening thunder]

Morning Pete

To be honest I'm not seeing anything different in the charts between T+168-192hrs (sorry can't currently post images) to what we saw though the early part of last week. LP might well be anchored in the Atlantic, but again it's nowhere near far enough west to prevent bands of rain/showers pushing northeastwards at times across the UK. Again as early last week the SE and EA will probably do OK out of it, but elsewhere it looks rather disappointing to say the least.

Nowt wrong with that, I'm pretty happy with another warm/very warm few days then a thundery breakdown then a warmer but changeable at times set up to keep some weather interest as well as pleasant days which I will enjoy.

But then I don't mind (even like) some rain from time to time, I just don't like too much cool/cold and below average temps in summer. In that respect the outlook is looking pretty decent for me, GFS Ensembles shows a protracted spell of above average 850hpa temps from Aberdeen to London:

Not nearly as much precipitation showing as earlier in the summer either. Yes probably not a protracted hot spell in the 30's a la July 06 but if that's what's needed for a month not to be a 'write off' most summers will leave you disappointed in this country unfortunately.

Therefore IMO, a quite pleasant outlook really.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Stormmad26

[shedhead]

Nowt wrong with that, I'm pretty happy with another warm/very warm few days then a thundery breakdown then a warmer but changeable at times set up to keep some weather interest as well as pleasant days which I will enjoy.

But then I don't mind (even like) some rain from time to time, I just don't like too much cool/cold and below average temps in summer. In that respect the outlook is looking pretty decent for me, GFS Ensembles shows a protracted spell of above average 850hpa temps from Aberdeen to London:

Not nearly as much precipitation showing as earlier in the summer either. Yes probably not a protracted hot spell in the 30's a la July 06 but if that's what's needed for a month not to be a 'write off' most summers will leave you disappointed in this country unfortunately.

Therefore IMO, a quite pleasant outlook really.

Of course it's all relative. Given your position to the NE of Dartmoor (and even mine to a degree) you should also do pretty well out of what GFS shows next week. However for the vast majority of the UK those charts, tho no where near as bad as earlier in the Summer, remain pretty uninspiring imo. I think many of us are now looking for a pattern change, rather than just brief, temporary improvements, but as I've been saying for some time now this looks unlikely to occur until the last week of the month.

Edited August 6, 2012 by shedhead

[Evening thunder]

Of course it's all relative. Given your position to the NE of Dartmoor (and even mine to a degree) you should also do pretty well out of what GFS shows next week. However for the vast majority of the UK those charts, tho no where near as bad as earlier in the Summer, remain pretty uninspiring imo. I think many of us are now looking for a pattern change, rather than just brief, temporary improvements, but as I've been saying for some time now this looks unlikely to occur until the last week of the month.

Indeed the outlook probably won't stop the summer overall coming into the 'poor' category, but then I think that a change from near constant below average 850hpa temps to near constant above average 850hpa temps (on the ensembles), with the trough shown in the Atlantic and a high over Europe, rather than a High somewhere in the Atlantic and trough over NW Europe, is a vast improvement and is a pattern change, and not a brief temporary improvement.

But as you say I guess it's all relative to what people are looking for and a matter of opinion, and I think the GFS operational this morning does show lower pressure so probably wetter weather over us than the ensemble mean.