Model Output Discussion 22/07/12 Onwards.

[MP-R]

I wouldn't say there are any correlations between Septembers and following winters. Looking back,

Sept 2011 was very unsettled - winter 2011 was largely mild

Sept 2010 was quite unsettled - winter 2010 was cold overall

Sept 2009 was very settled - winter 2009 was severe

Sept 2008 was half and half - winter 2008 was mostly cold

Go figure.

I was wondering whether this GFS chart would signifiy any potential thundery activity or whether it's too late in the season:

[Cloud 10]

The day 10 ensemble mean from ECM a bit more bullish about a country-wide settled spell

than the GFS 06z.

ECM.. GFS..

Beyond that,the last few NAEFS runs going for renewed heights around Greenland

which could make things interesting regarding the track of any ex-hurricanes

and atlantic storms,

[phil nw.]

A heads up -will be locking this thread in 5mins.

A new one opening here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74255-model-output-discussion-26082012/