Model Output Discussion 22/07/12 Onwards.

[phil nw.]

Certainly a stronger signal for building the Azores High towards the UK by week 2 from output over the last 24hrs.

The NAEF`s and ECM 00z pressure anomols.here for day 8.

The 12Z runs continuing the trend with the ECM operational especially keen on a High cell over the UK.

We will have to wait a little longer to see how far north the fine and warm conditions will extend but the trend does look stronger this evening for a settled and rather warm spell,especially for those further south.

[bluearmy]

There still remains the trend for the centre of the block to be west of the uk. That would mean temps, whilst decent for the time of year, won't get too high.

[shedhead]

I'd say thing's remain largely on plan, unfortunately though I expect the evolution below to dominate the coming Winter too.

Edited August 25, 2012 by shedhead

[Bristawl Si]

I'd say thing's remain largely on plan, unfortunately though I expect the evolution below to dominate the coming Winter too.

How the hell can u say this kind of pattern will dominate the coming winter?

Ru the second coming?

[Scorcher]

I'd say thing's remain largely on plan, unfortunately though I expect the evolution below to dominate the coming Winter too.

I agree shed, I can see a clear trend for the high to move across us as opposed to being to the west or south of us. The centre of the high certainly looks close enough in the charts you posted for some very warm temperatures.

[Milhouse]

Even at day 10 on the ECM mean the high is still strong. Plus its ridged far enough north that even if it began to be squashed by low pressure we would still have roughly 2 more warm and settled days after day 10.

[shedhead]

How the hell can u say this kind of pattern will dominate the coming winter?

Ru the second coming?

I said 'I expect' not 'it will'. As ever time will tell, but let's get the fine, dry and warm Autumn out the way first shall we...

[Frosty.]

The 00z models are continuing to firm up on a warm and anticyclonic outlook, especially for the southern half of the uk although it currently looks as though the north will eventually join in with the fine weather after next weekend but it will be more of a struggle for northern areas initially. The Ecm 00z is really good from early FI and only by T+240 hours shows what looks to me like a thundery breakdown after several days of lovely summery weather. The Gfs 00z also paints a fine and summery picture by early the following week for most of the uk with just the far northwest of the uk being unsettled at times. The next 4 days look unsettled, especially in the north and west closest to the low but the south and east having some respite after tomorrow before the main trough spreads east across all areas followed by a rise in pressure by late thursday from the southwest, then friday shows high pressure building at least across the south and intensifying next weekend but for the northern half of the uk, the transition from unsettled to settled will be slower but all areas currently look fine and warm at least for a time after next week.

Edited August 26, 2012 by Frosty039

[MP-R]

A rather uneventful model run this morning with high pressure doing its best to take control once again from Thursday onwards. I wonder how long it will last - this spell looks similar to the one in late July that lasted a week before turning cooler from the northwest. The GFS doesn't go out that far but the high does seem to wither in situ and things become rather slack with a low waiting out to the west in outer FI.

Let's just hope the anticyclone doesn't last too long. More of yesterday's weather is what I would expect in September.

[Summer Sun]

I'd say thing's remain largely on plan, unfortunately though I expect the evolution below to dominate the coming Winter too.

Some lovey charts there even though there for september apart from the longer nights we can still get some warm temps by day mid 20s very easy and cooler by night

Nice run from GFS as well this morning with lots of dry settled weather around, after a wash out June and July it will be nice to get some prolonged settled periods

Edited August 26, 2012 by Summer Sun

[johnholmes]

A rather uneventful model run this morning with high pressure doing its best to take control once again from Thursday onwards. I wonder how long it will last - this spell looks similar to the one in late July that lasted a week before turning cooler from the northwest. The GFS doesn't go out that far but the high does seem to wither in situ and things become rather slack with a low waiting out to the west in outer FI.

Let's just hope the anticyclone doesn't last too long. More of yesterday's weather is what I would expect in September.

the 500mb charts first picked this up on Thursday 23 August and have run with it ever since. The last NOAA, Saturday 25 August suggested on its 8-14 that it could still be the major player in the weather over the UK out to the 8th possibly even further into September. They have inclined more and more to the idea of it being centred over/close by SE of this country, having developed just west of perhaps SW of the UK.

The GFS output has been fairly variable if you look at what is available on Wx Online back to about Wednesday last week. The 500mb anomalies would suggest an upper ridge by 31 August or 2 September at the latest.

Edited August 26, 2012 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

The calendar will have only just ticked over into September so i very much imagine conditions will be not that different to if this spell has occurred in mid Summer.

Yeah and maybe title it "Summer is over and warm settled conditions no longer count! Model thread"

oh its more then welcome, but i explain in my sig why its not the same...summer is about more then just sunshine and temps.

abit of disagreement between the ecm and gfs as to the nature of the expected pressure rise. the gfs suggesting the azh to be the main player, flatlining the jet to our north...great for southern areas, not so great for the north...whilst the ecm suggests the azh drifts over into europe thus giving us a shot at some high temps. (as does the gfs in fi, beyond the ecm's 240 range).

[TonyH]

My take on the coming week for Wales and the Midlands:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4467-weather-guide-august-bank-holiday-monday-to-sunday-2nd-september-2012/

[shedhead]

A rather uneventful model run this morning with high pressure doing its best to take control once again from Thursday onwards. I wonder how long it will last - this spell looks similar to the one in late July that lasted a week before turning cooler from the northwest. The GFS doesn't go out that far but the high does seem to wither in situ and things become rather slack with a low waiting out to the west in outer FI.

Let's just hope the anticyclone doesn't last too long. More of yesterday's weather is what I would expect in September.

I think if this is what you want you may well end up disappointed. I wouldn't get too hung up on any modelled breakdown from the northwest, sure there are bound to be some cooler, more unsettled blips, but in general I'd expect a good deal of fine, dry and warm weather throughout Sept across England and Wales in particular.

Edited August 26, 2012 by shedhead

[Don]

I said 'I expect' not 'it will'. As ever time will tell, but let's get the fine, dry and warm Autumn out the way first shall we...

There are increasing early signs that this Autumn could well be shaping up to be similar to those of the late 90's and the 2002-2007 period. That would be good news for the warm weather lovers who have waited all summer for prolonged settled weather but perhaps not so good for the coming winter.....

[MP-R]

I think if this is what you want you may well end up disappointed. I wouldn't get too hung up on any modelled breakdown from the northwest, sure there are bound to be some cooler, more unsettled blips, but in general I'd expect a good deal of fine, dry and warm weather throughout Sept across England and Wales in particular.

I think you may be right. It's a shame though as September is a great month for thunderstorms here when the conditions are right with the sea generally at its warmest. Even throughout August the number of days with thunder increased dramatically compared to the rest of the year. Ho hum, can't do anything about it - most people will be at work or returning to school looking outside to blue skies thinking 'if only this had happened in summer when it was supposed to'. Would just be nice to get some more interesting weather before I move to Madrid at the end of the month.

[Methuselah]

As there seem to be no useful correlations yet discovered, I'm at a loss to see just how this Autumn (it hasn't even started yet!) is 'shaping up' to be anything. Also, I don't see any connection between said 'correlations' and the model output?

The trees may well be loaded with cherries this year...but do we have to pick them all?

[UV-RAY]

As there seem to be no useful correlations yet discovered, I'm at a loss to see just how this Autumn (it hasn't even started yet!) is 'shaping up' to be anything. Also, I don't see any connection between said 'correlations' and the model output?

The trees may well be loaded with cherries this year...but do we have to pick them all?

Indeed, it appears we have some amazing hopecasting forecasters with the ability to see into the future and predict with great accuracy.

On a more levelled note, yes indeed the models are looking good for a dry settle start to September, anything else from thereon belongs in the hunch department.

[Cheshire Freeze]

There are increasing early signs that this Autumn could well be shaping up to be similar to those of the late 90's and the 2002-2007 period. That would be good news for the warm weather lovers who have waited all summer for prolonged settled weather but perhaps not so good for the coming winter.....

Erm....the last 5 or so years have had warm, settled spells in September. 2 of those five Septembers were followed by Severe winter episodes?

[Methuselah]

Come on peeps?? Back on topic - pretty please??

[Gavin Hannah]

Erm....the last 5 or so years have had warm, settled spells in September. 2 of those five Septembers were followed by Severe winter episodes?

The month of sepetember does seem to have a distinct period of warm dry weather associated with it. Especially the last 5 years as mentioned. I can remember plenty of "indian summers" the last few years before the onset of Autumn.

And as mentioned, we've had 2 severe winters, 3 if you count 2007 (Not as much snow but plenty of cold). So you could say it's a 50 50 hit rate for extreme cold and snow following a warm settled September.

As for the model output, I don't see much change for the start of September.

Edited August 26, 2012 by MadSnowboarder

[shedhead]

There are increasing early signs that this Autumn could well be shaping up to be similar to those of the late 90's and the 2002-2007 period. That would be good news for the warm weather lovers who have waited all summer for prolonged settled weather but perhaps not so good for the coming winter.....

As there seem to be no useful correlations yet discovered, I'm at a loss to see just how this Autumn (it hasn't even started yet!) is 'shaping up' to be anything. Also, I don't see any connection between said 'correlations' and the model output?

The trees may well be loaded with cherries this year...but do we have to pick them all?

Pete, I'm fairly certain that if GP had written the above post rather than Don, you and others who look to you for guidance would not have responded in the way you did. Whilst I realise that the MDT may not be the right thread for looking ahead quite so far, I think it's important that every poster contribution should be treated with equal respect...something you are normally very good at btw.

Edited August 26, 2012 by shedhead

[Thundery wintry showers]

The models are showing the high pressure centred further north than when I last looked, so instead of dry sunny weather being largely confined to the SE and cloudy weather elsewhere, it now looks as if most of England and Wales will end up dry with plenty of sunshine from next Friday onwards, and temperatures reaching the mid-20s into next weekend. It is still looking likely to be cloudy over Scotland and parts of NW England with some rain over northern and western Scotland. There is still scope for the outlook to change, but the trend has definitely been for a northward shift since yesterday, and the anticyclonic spell looks unlikely to be broken down until at least the 5th September.

For the next few days, some pretty ordinary weather is likely- rain spreading from the west tomorrow, sunshine and not many showers on Tuesday and Thursday, but the possibility of some longer outbreaks of rain on Wednesday.

[Methuselah]

Pete, I'm fairly certain that if GP had written the above post rather than Don, you and others who look to you for guidance would not have responded in the way you did. Whilst I realise that the MDT may not be the right thread for looking ahead quite so far, I think it's important that every poster contribution should be treated with equal respect...something you are normally very good at btw.

Fair do's shed. But my opinion on the apparent 'correlations' between warm, or cold, Septembers and the following winters (berries, seagulls, hedgehogs or whatever) has always been the same: there aren't any.

GP et al are using different methodologies altogether: they are attempting to exploit the latest information, as a predictive tool...

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z beyond midweek turns out to be a very summery run with high pressure in almost total control right through FI in the south, even the north joins in with a warm and settled spell for several days before low pressure near iceland moves east but throughout all this, the south of the uk holds on to anticyclonic weather and even when the original high pressure cell splits and begins to weaken, the azores high throws another ridge northeast. It's been a summer where the Azores High has been a rare visitor to the uk (the first 6 weeks of summer were shockingly bad), but it looks like making up for lost time with a golden start to autumn at least for southern parts of the uk. Tomorrow is also a bank holiday shocker for many, but lincs,east anglia and the southeast should have sunshine at least until lunchtime or up to mid afternoon, tuesday also looks fine and fairly sunny once the overnight rain has swept away eastwards but midweek looks showery as a trough moves east before pressure rises from the southwest by thursday and intensifies across southern england on fri/sat/sun and then builds further north and east.

Edited August 26, 2012 by Frosty039