Autumn 2012

[laserguy]

A big dose of ergot could cause cattle to abort.

And madness in humans - wasn't LSD first synthesised from ergot - hence the mention of hallucinations in a previous post of yours? I'm still trying to find leaves definitely changing colour around here, to no avail. Being decidedly red/green colourblind doesn't help,but still....

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Anyone been invaded by 'Daddy-Longlegs' yet ?? Autumn doesn't start until I've caught 2-3 of these little fellas !!

[Aaron]

You betcha, I rescued 3 last night, and there have been plenty more in days gone by. Some of them just fly right back in!! They don't bother me though, so I don't mind sharing my house with them.. (spiders on the other hand..)

I've also noticed a lot of little black flies.. 'corn flies' I believe they are called.. there are quite a few on the ceilings in some rooms around the house.

Edited September 9, 2012 by Aaron

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Mostly the Hawthorn Blackthorn and Horse Chestnut trees on the change here in Co.Tyrone, I also note the Swallows are gathering it will be interesting to see when they leave, they stayed until November here last year which is the latest I have ever seen.

Wasps as well this is the first year I have ever seen wasps in such numbers - we don't tend to get them up where I live, and House Spiders a plenty some big mamma beasties this year too

[Polar Maritime]

You betcha, I rescued 3 last night, and there have been plenty more in days gone by. Some of them just fly right back in!! They don't bother me though, so I don't mind sharing my house with them.. (spiders on the other hand..)

I've also noticed a lot of little black flies.. 'corn flies' I believe they are called.. there are quite a few on the ceilings in some rooms around the house.

Yes had hundreds of corn flies over the last week here, i only need to leave the windows open slightly overnight and the little critters are everywhere the following morning....as i like fresh air in the house it can be quite annoying! Also have had lot's of Daddy Long Legs over the past 3 weeks, quite amusing to watching them bumping around things.

[Gavin Hannah]

Parents are out picking berries this morning.

My mum will use most of them to make country wine.

[laserguy]

Anyone been invaded by 'Daddy-Longlegs' yet ?? Autumn doesn't start until I've caught 2-3 of these little fellas !!

Ye - had loads in the kitchen, have done for about a fortnight now.

[laserguy]

Parents are out picking berries this morning.

My mum will use most of them to make country wine.

Great stuff, will be out and about next week harvesting enough elderberries for,hopefully,5 or 6 gallons. The undisputed king of English wines and if made right better than any of that muck the French turn out for forty quid a pop.......

[Gavin Hannah]

Lol.. Nice. My mum also made Sloe gin last year.. when mixed with lemonade it looked like pink champagne and tasted very fruity. I recommend giving that a go.

[Aaron]

First mention of snow in the BBC forecast for Highlands

Edited September 9, 2012 by Aaron

[Summer Sun]

Saw my first Red breast Robin today.....

There out all year round up here

Anyone been invaded by 'Daddy-Longlegs' yet ?? Autumn doesn't start until I've caught 2-3 of these little fellas !!

Yes had 4 in the house last night all at the same time had a few for the past 2 or 3 weeks now

[Scorcher]

Saw my first Red breast Robin today.....

Robins are here all year round I believe.

[Summer Sun]

I think average at best describes Autumn 2012 according to CFS for rain fall

At this stage I can't see the above been true for the south

October

November

Now to the temperature

Again at this stage I can't see the below been true for the south

Average October

And average again for November

Edited September 9, 2012 by Summer Sun

[rob48]

Lol.. Nice. My mum also made Sloe gin last year.. when mixed with lemonade it looked like pink champagne and tasted very fruity. I recommend giving that a go.

Last year was excellent for sloes, a bumper crop.

Still got some in the freezer (in case this year isn't so good) and two bottles of sloe gin in the cupboard, rare vintage!

[syed2878]

i c there's snow mensioned for the highest grounds of scotland isn't it a bit earlly even in september?

[Northernlights]

i c there's snow mensioned for the highest grounds of scotland isn't it a bit earlly even in september?

Not that early as over the last 40 odd years the first visible snow on Ben Wyvis (3000 feet)to the NW of me across the Firth was usually around the 20th September equinoxial gale time and the Cairngorms which are higher to the south of me but not visible have already had a flurry at the end of August this year

[Summer Sun]

I see there's snow mentioned for the highest grounds of Scotland isn't it a bit early even in September?

Its not too early but I'm not convinced it will snow the temps look too high during tomorrow

[AWD]

Its not too early but I'm not convinced it will snow the temps look too high during tomorrow

The temps shown for Scotland on those charts will obviously be lower the higher up you go, so there would be snow on the mountains quite easily.

[Weather-history]

A real taste of winter for parts of Scotland for mid October 1993, one of the most potent wintry incursions during October in recent times.

[Cheshire Freeze]

If I was to take a punt on how Autumn will pan out it'd go something like this...

Remainder of September- A warmer than average month overall with the mean wind direction being southwesterly. Frequent building of HP centred just to the SE slowing Atlantic progression and allowing warm air to advect northwards at times. This punctuated by wet interludes as weather fronts ocassionally track across the UK. Possibly more unsettled during the last 3rd of the month with more meaningful rain to all parts.

October- Unsettled start, cool at times too with the potential for some wind events. Soon settling down again with HP locating to centre southern UK....far NW prone to wind and rain from the Atlantic. To close the month the weather becomes more unsettled once again as HP is eroded.

November- An unsettled month in general with some notable cold interludes. Negatively tilted jet stream with LP pushed across the country and cold air on flank of these. A month dominated by a mean NW'ly wind direction, so all in all fairly cold and cyclonic.

[Aaron]

Its not too early but I'm not convinced it will snow the temps look too high during tomorrow

This post is too black and white.

Temperatures drop substantially during heavy showers, so snow is almost certainly possible with maximum temperatures of only 6 or 7 degrees.

Edited September 10, 2012 by Aaron

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office contingency planners forecast now covers the period of September to November

Temperature Summary

The balance of probabilities suggests that September will be slightly warmer than average whilst for the period September-October-November UK-averaged temperatures will be near the 1981-2010 climate mean.

The probability that UK-mean temperature for the September-October-November period will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is around 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Detailed outlook

Development of weak to moderate El Niño conditions is currently underway in the equatorial Pacific, although the atmospheric conditions do not yet display the typical characteristics of such an event. Therefore no clear influence on the likely weather pattern over Europe can be anticipated at this stage. It is noteworthy that Arctic sea ice coverage has now reached exceptionally low values and is already approaching the record low amount observed in 2007.

Research is currently in progress to ascertain how this might influence the weather patterns around the UK. Computer models show reasonable consistency in the overall dominance of higher-than-normal pressure across the UK (and northern Europe) in September; this usually favors above normal temperatures. Although the skill of long-range forecasting models for this time of year is relatively limited, the current sea surface temperature pattern in the eastern Atlantic would normally favor a bias towards such a blocked pattern. For September-October-November as a whole, the models tend towards slightly higher than average pressure over northern Europe, with the seasonal-mean temperature likely to be near average.

Autumn is a transitional time of year in which a given circulation pattern can result in very different temperature outcomes between the beginning and end of the season. For example, a settled

weather pattern in September usually results in above normal temperatures whilst a similar pattern in November would usually yield colder-than average conditions. Therefore, although near-average temperatures are favored over the season as a whole, this does not exclude spells of unusually warm or cold weather. Shorter-period forecasts should therefore be monitored on a regular basis for additional details.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/k/s/A3-plots-temp-SON.pdf

Rainfall Summary

For UK averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities weakly favor below normal values during September. For the period September - October - November as a whole the forecast favors a slightly higher than usual risk of above average rainfall, whilst the risk of dry conditions remains around climatological levels. The probability that UK rainfall for September - October - November will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories in around 25% (the 19812010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Detailed Outlook

Computer models show reasonable consistency in the overall dominance of higher than normal pressure across the UK in September, which normally favors drier than average conditions. However, in the forecast there is a large range of possible outcomes (pink points on the left hand panel of figure P2). Following a predominantly unsettled end to August, there are already significant uncertainties in the rainfall pattern going into September. Although the September - October - November mean pressure patterns slightly favor higher than normal pressure over northern Europe, the forecast suggests some periods of

unsettled weather. If these occur in October they can produce heavy rain because the surrounding ocean is still warm, potentially off setting a drier than average September. On balance there is a slightly enhanced risk of wetter than average conditions for the whole 3month period the probability of a drier than average season for the UK as a whole is at climatological levels. Regional variations in forecast rainfall relative to long term averages cannot be specified. Therefore, shorter period forecasts should be monitored on a regular basis for additional

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/e/A3-plots-precip-SON.pdf

[Stationary Front]

Earliest autumn ground frost recorded last night at Bablake Weather Station Coventry -1.2, since 1979

[feb1991blizzard]

Some snow possible for the very highest part of Ben Nevis from this chart.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Earliest autumn ground frost recorded last night at Bablake Weather Station Coventry -1.2, since 1979

Are you sure? I live about 12miles from there and saw a low of 8.5c. That's a big anomaly...