Autumn 2012

[Stationary Front]

Yes, I got the info from Bablake Weather Station. It's a official Met site. Check it out online.

Note ground frost not air frost

Edited September 13, 2012 by Stationary Front

[Eugene]

This is what Gibby said on Tuesday morning Sept 11th in his excellent model analysis just two days ago,

It looks like becoming very warm again especially in the South early next week.

Today just two days later it looks cooler with NW'ly winds, quite incredible change around and shows people should never take models for granted just T+120 hrs ahead.

[Milhouse]

This is what Gibby said on Tuesday morning Sept 11th in his excellent model analysis just two days ago,

Today just two days later it looks cooler with NW'ly winds, quite incredible change around and shows people should never take models for granted just T+120 hrs ahead.

I accept that, but thats what the models were showing so Gibby gave his analysis of what he saw, which at the time was very warm and sunny. I dont think anyone could have predicted the change that has occurred.

Edited September 13, 2012 by Milhouse

[summer blizzard]

Being fair the models are normally reliable at day 5 however the basis for the warmth was that TS Nadine was not yet developed. Since it has devoloped it has become increasingly likely that it will not be picked up the Jet Stream until very close to Europe and therefore any ridge promoted will be well east of the UK.

At this time of year people should always be looking at that the feature driving the pattern is.

[EML Network]

I think Autumn is going to be a continuation of the bland rubbish that this country has experienced for the past 20 months, with nothing in the way of anything even remotely exciting happening, just your bog standard pile of rubbish.

cooler as time progresses the odd windy day in October and November, the odd warm day here and there, winds from the West or North West, scattered showers and broken cloud pants rubbish, with the odd sunny day in between.

In summary , probably the most boring weather on the planet in terms of anything that could be considered extreme

[Weather-history]

This for me the worst type of autumnal weather, anticyclonic gloom like what happened late October 1993

Edited September 14, 2012 by Weather-history

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Yup WH the November gloom is the one I hate the most

[Richard2901]

The first half of September has been a welcome contrast from summer here. Warm, dry and sunny.

Mean Max: 18.0 (+1.7)

Mean Min: 10.0 (+0.7)

Rainfall: 14.0mm (48%)

Sunshine: 88.4hrs (128%)

Sunshine has not only surpassed July's total already but we have had more than in the whole 6 week period 5th June to 16th July which produced a putrid 87.6 hours.

Almost all the rain so far has fallen on just 2 days (10th and 13th). It was rather cool between the 10th and 14th but even then there was plenty of sun on the 11th and 12th.

I just wonder why it seems impossible to get these conditions during the actual summer now. It's not as if there has been a lot of high pressure this month. In fact pressure has actually been 1mb below average so far but the SW wind, almost entirely absent in summer nowadays, has been dominant keeping us dry and sunny in the rain shadow of the Grampians.

[Summer Sun]

European Snow and rainfall Accumulations for the next 3 Days

European Snow and rainfall Accumulations for the next 3 to 6 Days

[Weather-history]

Some leaves are changing colour, some leaves are falling off trees. It feels earlier this year, I'm not sure if it really is but it seems earlier than recently.

[Eskimo]

Some leaves are changing colour, some leaves are falling off trees. It feels earlier this year, I'm not sure if it really is but it seems earlier than recently.

It's a sign!!

[AderynCoch]

Some leaves are changing colour, some leaves are falling off trees. It feels earlier this year, I'm not sure if it really is but it seems earlier than recently.

It seemed very early last year. I remember how weird it felt when it turned very warm at the end of September with leaf litter everywhere.

[Chris K]

Leaves have started turning here as well now. Some deep reds and yellows coming through. Has started slightly later than last year though, by approximately a week.

[Interitus]

Not sure if autumn colours and falling leaves are much different to normal here in north Cheshire, but after the wet and dull early summer there seemed to be many trees which were dropping an appreciable number of leaves prematurely in July for a while.

[Barry12]

Looking like a cold October, forecast from the met.

UK Outlook for Monday 1 Oct 2012 to Monday 15 Oct 2012:

Indications are that the first half of October is likely to be characterised by mainly unsettled conditions across much of the UK, with spells of rain as well as some drier and brighter periods. Winds may also be strong at times, particularly across the north and west. Temperatures are likely to be generally below or well below average, especially by day.

Edited September 16, 2012 by Barry95

[Aaron]

I don't like the mention of 'especially by day' because that might indicate more cloud cover, reducing the risk of frost.

[Aaron]

It seemed very early last year. I remember how weird it felt when it turned very warm at the end of September with leaf litter everywhere.

I saw leaves changing in August last year.

[Aaron]

Anyway.. some nice charts.. air frost for N England, Scotland and a little area of Wales?

Edited September 17, 2012 by Aaron

[summer blizzard]

I saw leaves changing in August last year.

That was likely due to drought stress (late July near me), this is genuine cool Autumnal turning.

I can't wait for November personally, not only can we get snow but get a high pressure over us and we get sunshine and not much above 0C.

[Aaron]

Edited September 18, 2012 by Aaron

[Summer Sun]

WeatherOnline have issued there latest monthly forecast there going for a settled start to October with the first 10 days of October dominated by high pressure

Valid from 30/11 to 27/12 2011

Here comes Autumn

Issued: Saturday 15th September 2012

Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob

Autumn is making an appearance whether we like it or not......

High pressure looks as if it'll be asserting an influence on the pattern...but we're not quite there yet....an anticyclone is expected in the short term to take up station to the west of the British Isles during the shorter term, feeding a cool flow of rather showery conditions down through all areas. The brightest and driest weather will be concentrated across areas sheltered from the north-westerly breeze, southern, south-eastern and eastern Britain the most favored spots, here too though some showery rain can be anticipated as weaken bands of cloud move southward.

* .....25th*

Around the 21st high pressure may begin to exert a stronger influence as a developing anticyclone drifts into the UK, conditions settling in a quiet autumnal few days , although the anticipation is that it won't last, as hard on its 'eastward drift' low pressure will be following from off the Atlantic.

This lowering of pressures will push thickening areas of cloud, bands of rain into western Britain and a strengthening southerly to south-westerly flow into western Britain. The east and south of the UK will remain largely dry for a while longer but here too cloud will thicken with outbreaks of showery rain moving east, as western areas brighten and turn cooler and showery.

With higher pressure maintained to the east of the UK, low pressure may well stall over the British Isles as we move into the period of the 28th-30th, the weather remaining rather showery and cloudy at times. The flow remaining from the south or southwest for much of the time, showers are expected to become lighter and more scattered across eastern and southern areas as pressure to the east builds.

*1st to 15th October*

As we move into the new month, high pressure located over central Europe is looking as if it'll build across the UK, pushing the remnants of any unsettled and showery rain westward, all areas becoming drier and brighter, if a bit chillier.

The first 10 days of October looks as if they'll be dominated by high pressure, this likely to be affecting all areas initially, although later more northern areas will pick up a more westerly oriented flow with cloud and patchy rain spilling in from off the Atlantic. The bulk of the UK will be mainly fine and dry, settling into a typical early autumn regime of pleasantly sunny days with broken cloud after the clearance of any overnight mist and fog; it will be chillier where this lingers for any length of time.

There seems little to suggest that this pressure distribution will alter during the period up to mid-month, high pressure persisting across southern Britain and Western Europe. A strengthening southerly breeze across the UK, showers breaking out through western areas, all remaining regions largely dry.

Simon & Captain Bob

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=205&FILE=tma&DAY=20120915

[damianslaw]

Anyone noticed the woeful lack of English Apples in the shop at the moment. Usually by now we see a plethora of english apples - this year I haven't seen any.. all down to exceptionally poor season we have just endured, it really has been abysmal for fruits, one of the worse seasons in a generation easily. Personally autumn without english apples doesn't seem right..

[Northernlights]

Anyone noticed the woeful lack of English Apples in the shop at the moment. Usually by now we see a plethora of english apples - this year I haven't seen any.. all down to exceptionally poor season we have just endured, it really has been abysmal for fruits, one of the worse seasons in a generation easily. Personally autumn without english apples doesn't seem right..

The worst Scottish season ever I can remember for almost 50 years for apples and plums here nothing on the trees.Also no strawberries mid season to speak of outside and not under plastic. So cold in April /May /June, no insects for pollination and frequent frosts until early June. It seems really odd not having to pick any plums or apples this year.

Edited September 18, 2012 by Northernlights

[Rainy]

Anyone noticed the woeful lack of English Apples in the shop at the moment. Usually by now we see a plethora of english apples - this year I haven't seen any.. all down to exceptionally poor season we have just endured, it really has been abysmal for fruits, one of the worse seasons in a generation easily. Personally autumn without english apples doesn't seem right..

Not as many apples as last year here. We had a heavy crop then. Trees exposed to the cold winds last April have no fruit on the sides facing the wind.. But the main thing I've noticed is the delayed ripening. We've had very little sunlight or warmth this summer and so far this autumn. The apples on one tree which can usually be picked from late August are still very hard and sour. Also there is rain damage to the fruit -- skin blemishes and cracks.

Lucky to have anything at all really..

There are blackberries, but they too are waiting for warmth and sun to ripen.

[Snowangel-MK]

It's a sign!!

A very chilly 5.7 °C here this morning and I agree with other posters the leaves do seem to be turning quickly this year, it certainly feels and smells very autumnal out there.