South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - August 19th 2012>

[Steve C]

Just looking at the CAPE charts (as sadly I didn't go to the pub tonight) I actually expect to hear thunder tomorrow.

Chart from Hi Res Model, for 4 o'clock tomorrow afternoon (this is just a for instance chart too, as it's looking good for a long period)

Edited August 24, 2012 by Steve C

[Keraunic]

Still in Ippy so you watch; there will be a mahoosive thunder storm in the early hours in Norwich.

[Steve C]

Still in Ippy so you watch; there will be a mahoosive thunder storm in the early hours in Norwich.

Did you read the post from 'Weather History' today, which contains newspaper extracts from a noteable rain event in Norwich, nearly exactly 100 years ago to the day?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74233-august-1912-coldest-wettest-dullest/

[Keraunic]

Did you read the post from 'Weather History' today, which contains newspaper extracts from a noteable rain event in Norwich, nearly exactly 100 years ago to the day?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74233-august-1912-coldest-wettest-dullest/

Crikey! Maybe history will repeat itself. Very interesting post. Thanks for that, Steve.

[john pike]

... UK ...

With 500 hPa temperatures dropping to at or below -20 °C atop a moist maritime BL air mass assists in moderate SBCAPE of roughly 800 J/kg during peak heating. This amount of CAPE is enough to support a few strong and probably isolated severe thunderstorms with marginal (isolated large) hail and heavy rain. However it is tough to pinpoint the area of highest activity, as CI will be dictated by mesoscale features. Hence, no level will be added for now. Storms decrease in coverage and intensity after sunset.

http://www.estofex.org/

looks like tomorrow could see some interest

estofex say it is tough to say where the highest activity will be

thats easy see where quantum is and hey presto

[john pike]

windy and heavy thundery rain

east anglia looks the main area from above

sunday looks nice

sunshine and showers some areas in the south east will stay dry

sun and showers windy

sunshine and showers again

breezy

some areas will escape while some locally heavy rain will occur

on and off throughout the week

wind will be a pain in the neck

unless you fly kites

[john pike]

this fax chart for tomorrow would cause net weathers site to crash

in the middle of winter

north easterly wind

heavy snow with thundersnow risk

sorry came over all excited then

[john pike]

Just started spitting here...oh well at least I made it back from the Post Office without getting wet !

[john pike]

cape charts for tomorrow

looks to me that during the afternoon heavy thundery showers will build

east anglia certainly looks like the area for the heavy rain

something to watch

looks warm

but

some nasty looking low pressure systems heading towards us from the atlantic

the jet profile would allow these systems to stay further south than normal

hence could cause the uk some very wet and windy conditions

worth keeping an eye on

ensembles nothing to write home about

however there is a much lower rainfall amount showing now

main gfs run loses the plot around 5th september

i am away for a week from saturday so no updates

for a little while

hope you all have a good week

john

[Norfolk Sheep]

"main GFS run loses the plot" :D :D :D

That's made my day, thanks John :D

[john pike]

"main GFS run loses the plot"

That's made my day, thanks John

[tinybill]

Still in Ippy so you watch; there will be a mahoosive thunder storm in the early hours in Norwich.

i be up our way later for the weekend staying at the premial inn just out side norwich!!

[chilly milly]

Morning all. Calm, grey and mild here this morning. That describes me, not sure about the weather.

Picking up my puppy today, so excited, never had a doggie before.

[Coast]

Urrrrrggggghhhhh heavy rain for most of today will ruin many outdoor events held in fields and the like.

Reasonable chance of storms for some of us today:

Can someone lend me some dainty fingers as my great fat digits are struggling with a new Tablet touch-screen thingy?

[Ruthie]

We ve had rain overnight here in west London. Quite heavy at times. I've got my 40th birthday party drinks today in the garden and so am off to buy a gazebo! Just hope it doesn't take off and join the flight path to heathrow when the winds pick up later...!

[Coast]

I've got my 40th birthday party drinks today in the garden and so am off to buy a gazebo!

[Snowangel-MK]

i am away for a week from saturday so no updates

for a little while

hope you all have a good week

john

Thanks John - have a good week yourself

p.s. it's spitting again here !

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all and happy Birthday Ruthie

Overcast and 17 deg C here with some overnight rain.

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Weird day in Ippy. Doesn't know quite what to do and it rained earlier. Hope we have some storm action later.

Happy Birthday Ruthie. Hope you have a fantastic day.

Have a great BH week end everyone. âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡âš¡

[Ruthie]

Thanks all!! Big black clouds to my south here and a fairly breezy day so far! Have a feeling the gazebo will come in handy... And the cagool, Wellies and the ark I built last night !!

[Steve C]

Morning all. Definitely has a heavy shower feel about it today. I'll forgive it, if there's thunder & lightning.

Saw a rather bedraggled looking sparrowhawk, just now. It's a pity I didn't have my best camera to hand, I had to shoot through glass and I was also a bit jittery. I've also noticed it's been ringed, but it was a nice sight nonetheless.

Thanks all!! Big black clouds to my south here and a fairly breezy day so far! Have a feeling the gazebo will come in handy... And the cagool, Wellies and the ark I built last night !!

Happy birthday from me too. Hopefully you'll have a great day, whatever the elements.

[Steve C]

Looking at the radar, it looks like it's about to kick off in several areas - south of London, north East Anglia etc.

[Guest archiesmummy]

Morning all

Have had some hefty showers here this morning but beautiful sunshine now in between some lovely looking clouds!

Steve C...great photos, we have a sparrowhawk here that every now and then terrorises the birds out here but seeing him in action is pretty awesome! They are lovely looking!

Happy birthday day Ruthie! Think you will need your gazebo but just hope doesn't blow away either, that wind has been getting up with the showers, well here anyway!

I will raise a glass for you anyway! Any excuse, was MKs mini me during the week with her exams, keep the celebrations coming people!

Have great bank holiday everyone and hope you get some storms, if you want them, later on!

[Keraunic]

Very hot here now. Lots of BIG dark clouds gathering though. Looking goooood guys.......I hope.

Gorgeous photos, Steve. They have come out very well considering they are through glass.

[Steve C]

Very hot here now. Lots of BIG dark clouds gathering though. Looking goooood guys.......I hope.

Gorgeous photos, Steve. They have come out very well considering they are through glass.

Are you in Ipswich all day now, or heading to Norwich later?