Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[quest4peace]

Those surface air temperature anomalies are really climbing over the Beaufort sea, up over 13C now.

Explains why Barrow is so mild at the moment

[BornFromTheVoid]

Explains why Barrow is so mild at the moment

The DMI 80N temps have gone below average, breaking what looks like a 40 day above average streak.

We haven't had a day more than 5C below average since January 2010, so that's something to keep an eye out for.

[BornFromTheVoid]

All extent measurement are slow to get going so far.

The IJIS extent has just reached a new record low anomaly yesterday of -1,838,125km2 (compared to the 2002-2011 average). Since September it has gained only around 180k, compared to the average of 390k.

[quest4peace]

The DMI 80N temps have gone below average, breaking what looks like a 40 day above average streak.

We haven't had a day more than 5C below average since January 2010, so that's something to keep an eye out for.

What would the the wider affects of this be if it stayed below average

All extent measurement are slow to get going so far.

The IJIS extent has just reached a new record low anomaly yesterday of -1,838,125km2 (compared to the 2002-2011 average). Since September it has gained only around 180k, compared to the average of 390k.

Is IJIS giving us true reading at the moment? seems to showing amazingly low ice growth, or is it really that dire this year.

Here's a map of the 2m temps from the DMI site, you can clearly see the area of -20 to -25 around the pole and northern greenland,

http://ocean.dmi.dk/..._latest.big.png

Can also see the +8 ish 2m temps around northern canada and alaska.

Edited October 6, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

What would the the wider affects of this be if it stayed below average

Is IJIS giving us true reading at the moment? seems to showing amazingly low ice growth, or is it really that dire this year.

Good morning Q4P!

Depends how long it stayed below average, but seeing as it's just for north of 80N, I don't think it would change much, not in one season at least.

I think IJIS extent is accurate. The NSIDC extent has also been slow off the mark too, so they kind of confirm eachother.

The Cryosphere Today area has had close to average with growth so far, which might be mainly down to the low concentration ice in the central pack freezing over more fully, rather than the ice pack expanding outward much.

We're only 6 days into the month, so I think we need a little more time before we can start making any assumptions about how the refreeze will go, or the effect of the very low minimum this year on the refreeze.

[quest4peace]

Good morning Q4P!

Depends how long it stayed below average, but seeing as it's just for north of 80N, I don't think it would change much, not in one season at least.

I think IJIS extent is accurate. The NSIDC extent has also been slow off the mark too, so they kind of confirm eachother.

The Cryosphere Today area has had close to average with growth so far, which might be mainly down to the low concentration ice in the central pack freezing over more fully, rather than the ice pack expanding outward much.

We're only 6 days into the month, so I think we need a little more time before we can start making any assumptions about how the refreeze will go, or the effect of the very low minimum this year on the refreeze.

Morning to you BFTV hopefully I'm trying to ask questions that other people would benefit from/ask What do you think of the DMI 2m surface map i posted ? can you say whether there is anything striking about it other than the above average canada/Alaska coasts 2m temps

Edited October 6, 2012 by quest4peace

[stewfox]

Those surface air temperature anomalies are really climbing over the Beaufort sea, up over 13C now.

Is that -13c or -15c below average over much Greenland and Northern Asia at the end ?? Am I reading that right ?

[quest4peace]

Is that -13c or -15c below average over much Greenland and Northern Asia at the end ?? Am I reading that right ?

If it is,then that is some serious cold to come there

[BornFromTheVoid]

Morning to you BFTV hopefully I'm trying to ask questions that other people would benefit from/ask What do you think of the DMI 2m surface map i posted ? can you say whether there is anything striking about it other than the above average canada/Alaska coasts 2m temps

The surface air temperature map is interesting. The warmth near Alaska stands out quite a bit, but also the warmth down around the Kara sea and Laptev seas is quite noticeable.

Looking at the anomalies and comparing to previous years is the best way to find thing that stand out though.

Is that -13c or -15c below average over much Greenland and Northern Asia at the end ?? Am I reading that right ?

I think it's some anomalies of around -8 or -9C in Russia, with -11C in southern Greenland.

[quest4peace]

IJIS value : 4,173,594 km² (as of October 3, 2012)

The latest value : 4,256,875 km² (October 5, 2012)

80 odd thousand more than the 3rd, slightly disappointing over two days still.

Edited October 6, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

CT has updated, and a relatively small increase on the 3rd of 50k has put the anomaly back over 2.5 million again.

Meanwhile, the SAT anomaly continues to climb near the Beaufort sea, up above +14C on the 4th. That area should be around -13C but is currently a little over 1C.

Unfortunately, the 12z GFS suggests a continuation of surface temps around 0C over the Beaufort sea region for the next 5 days at least.

Edited October 6, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gavin Hannah]

The vertical ascent of that red line has now gone for a shallower parabolic trajectory. I'm guessing that all the loose ice has now formed up into the main pack.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not seeing much negative anoms over Greenland a.t.m.?

Are folk focusing on night time temps or are we seeing a large diurnal range?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm not seeing much negative anoms over Greenland a.t.m.?

Are folk focusing on night time temps or are we seeing a large diurnal range?

I think the -ve anoms over Greenland were in the surface air temperature anomalies animation I posted. They've been replaced with large +ve anoms in recent days.

[quest4peace]

Edit: posted in wrong thread

Edited October 6, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gavin Hannah]

IMS images showing some good extent increase as well as further Siberian snowfall.

[BornFromTheVoid]

IMS images showing some good extent increase as well as further Siberian snowfall.

IJIS extent agrees, with an increase of just over 120,000km2 yesterday. Good growth all around the pack. Another few days of this would be nice.

[Gavin Hannah]

120K, that is good growth indeed. That's the kind of growth we need now that we're in October.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Put together a global sea ice area data set from the CT numbers, so here's the resulting graph, up to Oct 4th

[oldsnowywizard]

Nice strong low forecast for Chuckchi area for this coming weekend.. should bring lots of cold air and snow to help reduce the SSTs in the area.. As it is all open water it should help mix out the warmer temps quite nicely.. We should start to see some ice growth next week after this. current SSTS range up to 5 degrees around the canadian side... Russian side things are much colder.... We really need the cold held up over the Basin this year.. I would like to see some really cold -40 850 temps and some consistent -30 2m temps.. that should get the ice growing quickly... as a rough guide...from http://www.sciencebits.com/StandingOnIce

If for example the average temperature is 2 degrees below freezing, then it would require about 4 days to freeze 10 cm of ice, which is about the minimum necessary to safely travel on foot (and do some ice fishing, if it's your cup of tea). If you want to drive your car (e.g., to shorten the way back home to Yellowknife), you'll need 25 days at this average temperature. For 10 degrees below freezing, it would shorten to about 5 days. Again, this assumes optimal conditions, that the water was close to freezing before the ice began forming (and in particular, that there is no constant supply of warm water such as that from a nearby stream inlet).

some of the maths wiz kids on here could actually work out how quickly (given optimal conditions) it would take for ice to grow to 1 meter thickness at -10 and -20.. ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nice strong low forecast for Chuckchi area for this coming weekend.. should bring lots of cold air and snow to help reduce the SSTs in the area.. As it is all open water it should help mix out the warmer temps quite nicely.. We should start to see some ice growth next week after this. current SSTS range up to 5 degrees around the canadian side... Russian side things are much colder.... We really need the cold held up over the Basin this year.. I would like to see some really cold -40 850 temps and some consistent -30 2m temps.. that should get the ice growing quickly... as a rough guide...from http://www.sciencebi...m/StandingOnIce

If for example the average temperature is 2 degrees below freezing, then it would require about 4 days to freeze 10 cm of ice, which is about the minimum necessary to safely travel on foot (and do some ice fishing, if it's your cup of tea). If you want to drive your car (e.g., to shorten the way back home to Yellowknife), you'll need 25 days at this average temperature. For 10 degrees below freezing, it would shorten to about 5 days. Again, this assumes optimal conditions, that the water was close to freezing before the ice began forming (and in particular, that there is no constant supply of warm water such as that from a nearby stream inlet).

some of the maths wiz kids on here could actually work out how quickly (given optimal conditions) it would take for ice to grow to 1 meter thickness at -10 and -20.. ?

That vortex setting up over the Chukchi sea is also allowing high pressure to build to our north, so plenty of northern blocking to come!

Just a quick note, with wind, waves, salinity, mixing and swells, you'd actually need something more along the lines of -15C I'd say to get a proper thick refreeze going.

Unfortunately I don't have the maths ability to work out your question there. But I wouldn't mind an answer to that too.

[keithlucky]

Siberia -22 http://translate.goo...KkQ_zusPUOUOjiw

Edited October 8, 2012 by keithlucky

[Interitus]

Nice strong low forecast for Chuckchi area for this coming weekend.. should bring lots of cold air and snow to help reduce the SSTs in the area.. As it is all open water it should help mix out the warmer temps quite nicely.. We should start to see some ice growth next week after this. current SSTS range up to 5 degrees around the canadian side... Russian side things are much colder.... We really need the cold held up over the Basin this year.. I would like to see some really cold -40 850 temps and some consistent -30 2m temps.. that should get the ice growing quickly... as a rough guide...from http://www.sciencebi...m/StandingOnIce

If for example the average temperature is 2 degrees below freezing, then it would require about 4 days to freeze 10 cm of ice, which is about the minimum necessary to safely travel on foot (and do some ice fishing, if it's your cup of tea). If you want to drive your car (e.g., to shorten the way back home to Yellowknife), you'll need 25 days at this average temperature. For 10 degrees below freezing, it would shorten to about 5 days. Again, this assumes optimal conditions, that the water was close to freezing before the ice began forming (and in particular, that there is no constant supply of warm water such as that from a nearby stream inlet).

some of the maths wiz kids on here could actually work out how quickly (given optimal conditions) it would take for ice to grow to 1 meter thickness at -10 and -20.. ?

Doesn't work like that in the sea. Put simply, fresh water is at it's most dense around 4°c so convective mixing continues to this temperature but below this the colder water stays at the surface and continues to cool till it freezes. Salt water is densest at its freezing point so the mixing continues at this temperature delaying the onset of freezing until the surface mixed layer is pretty much isothermal at the freezing point.

[knocker]

A daily, high-resolution, real-time, global, sea surface temperature (RTG_SST) analysis has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch (NCEP / MMAB). The analysis was implemented in the NCEP parallel production suite 16 August 2005. It became fully operational on September 27, 2005.

The daily sea surface temperature product is produced on a twelfth-degree (latitude, longitude) grid, with a two-dimensional variational interpolation analysis of the most recent 24-hours buoy and ship data, satellite-retrieved SST data, and SST's derived from satellite-observed sea-ice coverage.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another large jump in the IJIS extent yesterday of 100,000km2, compared to the average of 78k/day

NSIDC extent also had a large increase, this time of 116,000km2.

Meanwhile, Cryosphere Today, which is on to the 5th, saw a lower growth rate of just 46k, which makes the anomaly now 2.54 million km2, just 90k off the anomaly record set in October 2007. The average area growth is about 88k/day over the next week, so something to keep an eye on.