Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Gavin Hannah]

Another massive gain in extent today for IJIS, this time a jump of 237k! Leaving us just 50k behind 2007.

That's 133k/day average over the last week.

Nice. Could we beat 2005's October one day increase of 304k this year? That would be impressive.

Edited October 16, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[quest4peace]

The angle of that line is good viewing at the moment, it's almost vertical Can it continue?

Edited October 16, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gavin Hannah]

The angle of that line is good viewing at the moment, it's almost vertical Can it continue?

It's the proverbial "Bawhair" away from passing 2007.

From mid September, it has been following more or less the same gradient as the 2008 plot.

Edited October 16, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[quest4peace]

It's the proverbial "Bawhair" away from passing 2007.

From mid September, it has been following more or less the same gradient as the 2008 plot.

very apt scottish expression right there Can't comment on the thickness, but would love the depth to get better as well

Edited October 16, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another big increase on the NSIDC extent again today, this time up by 165k to 5,500,430km2, to put us just 56k off 2007.

Once more, a similar increase tomorrow will have us even with 2007.

We've added 940k in the last 6 days, which ain't too bad!

On the other hand, we have beaten the record -ve anomaly again on Cryosphere Today, now 2.709 million below average.

[quest4peace]

Another big increase on the NSIDC extent again today, this time up by 165k to 5,500,430km2, to put us just 56k off 2007.

Once more, a similar increase tomorrow will have us even with 2007.

We've added 940k in the last 6 days, which ain't too bad!

On the other hand, we have beaten the record -ve anomaly again on Cryosphere Today, now 2.709 million below average.

A lot of positives out of a relatively bad situation at the moment The area anomaly is rather worrying though with it spiraling lower and lower below norm, as i now understand a bit better,that the area at end of refreeze will have the main bearing on the ability of the ice to sustain itself during the summer melt out.Also not forgetting the sst anom effects come melt.

Edited October 16, 2012 by quest4peace

[peterf]

anyone have a link to the site that shows the extent of ice formation,the one that can be played in animation?

[quest4peace]

Hi guys, found this on you tube It's the 2012 melt season up to the start of refreeze may to september,

North Pole Web Cam 2012

I

Edited October 16, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

A lot of positives out of a relatively bad situation at the moment The area anomaly is rather worrying though with it spiraling lower and lower below norm, as i now understand a bit better,that the area at end of refreeze will have the main bearing on the ability of the ice to sustain itself during the summer melt out.Also not forgetting the sst anom effects come melt.

I'd say it's the thickness more so than the area, which matters when it comes to the ability to withstand a typical summer melt.

anyone have a link to the site that shows the extent of ice formation,the one that can be played in animation?

Here ya go, it's the concentration animation http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.color.0.html

[quest4peace]

Has anybody seen this WWF September min extent ice map from the year 2040?? bit o.t.t?

As the climate warms, Arctic sea ice is disappearing.

Almost every summer, the amount of remaining ice gets smaller. That summer ice is vitally important to a whole range of animals from tiny shrimp to vast bowhead whales, and to local people.

One stretch of ice is projected to remain when all other large areas of summer ice are gone. This is the Last Ice Area.

http://wwf.panda.org.../last_ice_area/

Where is the Last Ice area?

This map shows the extent of summer sea ice projected for 2040, as viewed from the north pole. The prediction is for a fringe of ice to remain in Northeast Canada and Northern Greenland when all other large areas of summer ice are gone.

They reckon there will be a small slither around the top of greenland and C.A in 2040 is that a bit far fetched??

Edited October 16, 2012 by quest4peace

[4wd]

Well if you extrapolate from a short period it looks 'plausible' but you should always look at longer periods to establish trends - see news thread.

Also it's a good idea not to make predictions about subjects which are not fully understood, because when the prediction is completely wrong later, people will assume that everything else you say is probably inaccurate and/or exaggerated..

[Methuselah]

Well if you extrapolate from a short period it looks 'plausible' but you should always look at longer periods to establish trends - see news thread.

Also it's a good idea not to make predictions about subjects which are not fully understood, because when the prediction is completely wrong later, people will assume that everything else you say is probably inaccurate and/or exaggerated..

We don't fully understand gravity, 4!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Strangely enough, I partly agree with 4wd.

It is best to look at the long term to get an idea of where things are headed. The WWF image doesn't really say how much of the year they expect to have so little ice left for, which doesn't help with working out how realistic the prediction is.

I think we can say that it's quite likely that we'll have seasonal see ice by then, as many of the models (which have predicted way too much ice so far) have us pretty close to it by then.

Model Predictions

I will disagree with 4wd with regards making predictions though. Almost every prediction is going to be wrong to a certain degree. But with every wrong prediction comes an opportunity to learn what went amiss. As long as your prediction is based on solid science and not political ideology (i.e., North Carolina sea level rise, I mean, "recurrent flooding") it should be respected and as long as you learn from your mistakes and admit when you got things wrong, people shouldn't think less of you imo

[quest4peace]

Well if you extrapolate from a short period it looks 'plausible' but you should always look at longer periods to establish trends - see news thread.

Also it's a good idea not to make predictions about subjects which are not fully understood, because when the prediction is completely wrong later, people will assume that everything else you say is probably inaccurate and/or exaggerated..

Surely a lot can change between now and 2040?.They have done so much good work around the world for wildlife and such.With regards to the 2040 Arctic ice prediction, a big organisation like WWF is taking a risk with their integrity with these predictions I'm sure part of it is scare tactics with good intentions to get their message across.

Strangely enough, I partly agree with 4wd.

It is best to look at the long term to get an idea of where things are headed. The WWF image doesn't really say how much of the year they expect to have so little ice left for, which doesn't help with working out how realistic the prediction is.

I think we can say that it's quite likely that we'll have seasonal see ice by then, as many of the models (which have predicted way too much ice so far) have us pretty close to it by then.

Model Predictions

I will disagree with 4wd with regards making predictions though. Almost every prediction is going to be wrong to a certain degree. But with every wrong prediction comes an opportunity to learn what went amiss. As long as your prediction is based on solid science and not political ideology (i.e., North Carolina sea level rise, I mean, "recurrent flooding") it should be respected and as long as you learn from your mistakes and admit when you got things wrong, people shouldn't think less of you imo

What worries me is the fact that the C.A just this year melted out, let alone be multi year ice in 2040. just thought id see what people thought.

Edited October 16, 2012 by quest4peace

[peterf]

I'd say it's the thickness more so than the area, which matters when it comes to the ability to withstand a typical summer melt.

Here ya go, it's the concentration animation http://arctic.atmos....ic.color.0.html

thats the one thanks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A very impressive jump in the IJIS extent yesterday, +296k! This takes us 155k above 2007.

That's an increase of over 1 million km2 in the last week, and over 530k in the last 3 days.

[Gowon]

A very impressive jump in the IJIS extent yesterday, +296k! This takes us 155k above 2007.

That's an increase of over 1 million km2 in the last week, and over 530k in the last 3 days.

Great news BFTV, and long may it continue.

[Nights King]

A very impressive jump in the IJIS extent yesterday, +296k! This takes us 155k above 2007.

That's an increase of over 1 million km2 in the last week, and over 530k in the last 3 days.

Thats quite impressive! I wonder if we can catch 2011 in the next couple of days....

[Geordiesnow]

A very impressive jump in the IJIS extent yesterday, +296k! This takes us 155k above 2007.

That's an increase of over 1 million km2 in the last week, and over 530k in the last 3 days.

Actually yesterday's figure got revised upwards it seems by 41K so between the 15th and 16th, the extent went up by a whopping 278K and todays extent went up by 255K so very impressive figures indeed despite the record low ice extent.

[quest4peace]

A very impressive jump in the IJIS extent yesterday, +296k! This takes us 155k above 2007.

That's an increase of over 1 million km2 in the last week, and over 530k in the last 3 days.

That is absolutely brilliant, and huge!! Surely were breaking some refreeze records at the mo?.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Q4P!

I agree that predictions should be received as just that and not 'beliefs'. Many folk are saying that the ice will drop below the 1 million 'seasonal' threshold by 2020 and ,were this to prove true, the WWF map would be wrong with any ice surviving the melt not being solely to N. Greenland/C.A.

We saw this year (for the first time?) The north shore of Greenland shed over 2m of ice through Aug. I'm sure this is to do with shallow water and albedo flip allowing early warming of the coastal fringe (we also saw a lot of ice from glacier tongues/shore-fast ice shed along that strip)> I was also frequently advised , through spring , that the C.A. had 3m ice that would not melt out but we saw what occurred there? The only problem there came from basin ice entering the north of the main 'deep channel' route otherwise it would have been clear sailing through there since early Aug??

Throughout the basin we have seen the 'old' perennial ice nurseries change into places that now consume perennial ice and i fear the same will become true of Greenland's north shore. With the remaining ice either positioned differently to this year or 20km smaller in diameter the NW Passage would have been fully open for over 1 month so I cannot see how ice would be expected in there once the basin is 'seasonal'?

As I say any remnant ice will occur where the unique weather pattern allows it to and this may well be different each passing year?

[quest4peace]

Hi Q4P!

I agree that predictions should be received as just that and not 'beliefs'. Many folk are saying that the ice will drop below the 1 million 'seasonal' threshold by 2020 and ,were this to prove true, the WWF map would be wrong with any ice surviving the melt not being solely to N. Greenland/C.A.

We saw this year (for the first time?) The north shore of Greenland shed over 2m of ice through Aug. I'm sure this is to do with shallow water and albedo flip allowing early warming of the coastal fringe (we also saw a lot of ice from glacier tongues/shore-fast ice shed along that strip)> I was also frequently advised , through spring , that the C.A. had 3m ice that would not melt out but we saw what occurred there? The only problem there came from basin ice entering the north of the main 'deep channel' route otherwise it would have been clear sailing through there since early Aug??

Throughout the basin we have seen the 'old' perennial ice nurseries change into places that now consume perennial ice and i fear the same will become true of Greenland's north shore. With the remaining ice either positioned differently to this year or 20km smaller in diameter the NW Passage would have been fully open for over 1 month so I cannot see how ice would be expected in there once the basin is 'seasonal'?

As I say any remnant ice will occur where the unique weather pattern allows it to and this may well be different each passing year?

Hi Gray Wolf Hope i don't contradict myself when i post long reply's i'm still getting my head round things

This is what NOAA has for 2035 some 5 years earlier than WWF

2020 is only 7 1/2 years away so as ever we'll have to wait and see, the ice will do whatever it's going to do that's the only thing i can say is definite, regardless of our predictions for the worse or the better. I'm a big believer in what the WWF amongst other environmental charities are doing, there message is meant with the best of intentions. And was just taken rather aback at the sea ice prediction map. I was thinking to myself that,there isn't multiyear ice sustained in C.A right now, so what was their prediction based on for that area in 2040?. Not sure about the thin slither grasping onto northern greenland either? Surely it wouldn't be that extreme?. I would like to think that a lot can change in 28 years time and i hope that the horrific map never comes to pass as the effects on the wildlife up there would be horrendous let alone the ripples elsewhere

Edited October 17, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Actually yesterday's figure got revised upwards it seems by 41K so between the 15th and 16th, the extent went up by a whopping 278K and todays extent went up by 255K so very impressive figures indeed despite the record low ice extent.

Not this revising numbers stuff again!

Will have to go back over my spreadsheet and sort a few bits out, cheers!

[laserguy]

What's happened - the CO2 suddenly stopped working or summat?

[BornFromTheVoid]

What's happened - the CO2 suddenly stopped working or summat?

Nope, just seasons. When the CO2 stops working, you'll be tunnelling through ice sheets to work

We're looking very close to a new record anomaly for global sea ice area

http://arctic.atmos....a.withtrend.jpg