Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Geordiesnow]

Still think looking at the charts, the extent figure will really slow down for the time of year thanks to quite an strong NAO being forecasted by the models, wind direction and milder air won't really favour much ice growth in the Beaufort Sea where SST's have been very mild this summer, ice is way below average in Baffin bay atm and current indications suggest this won't change much thanks to WAA being pumped into Greenland.

The areas that do look more favourable is the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian sea and perhaps some signs of ice formation in Hudson Bay where conditons have been mainly cold recently and looks like this will continue to be the case.

It also looks like we have the perfect set up for more thick ice to leave the Arctic and down into the Greenland sea so at the moment, the outlook imo does not look good for Arctic ice.

Normally an NAO is something we may want too see to keep thicker ice but this set up appears to go against that rule and to be honest, do we really want too see mild air pumped into the Arctic in October when there is still large spaces of open water.

No doubt the winter lovers will be getting excited and I do find the Northern hemisphere charts during this October rather interesting and it does lead to more suggestions lower sea ice is having an affect on weather patterns but this can't be good for Arctic ice surely?

[quest4peace]

I think you're staring to get it Q4P. The concentration chart here

http://arctic.atmos....e.color.000.png

shows the areas that haven't quite frozen over completely yet in the lighter colours. These are the places the area measurements will be lower than the extent.

We've passed 2007 for sea ice area now too

Got there eventually I think i just needed to look at it more simply then i was Good to finally pass 2007 on both counts now And i know some people will be reluctant to get excited yet, staying on the worst case scenario outlook (for good reason). Wouldn't it be nice if it surprised us?

Still think looking at the charts, the extent figure will really slow down for the time of year thanks to quite an strong NAO being forecasted by the models, wind direction and milder air won't really favour much ice growth in the Beaufort Sea where SST's have been very mild this summer, ice is way below average in Baffin bay atm and current indications suggest this won't change much thanks to WAA being pumped into Greenland.

The areas that do look more favourable is the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian sea and perhaps some signs of ice formation in Hudson Bay where conditons have been mainly cold recently and looks like this will continue to be the case.

It also looks like we have the perfect set up for more thick ice to leave the Arctic and down into the Greenland sea so at the moment, the outlook imo does not look good for Arctic ice.

Normally an NAO is something we may want too see to keep thicker ice but this set up appears to go against that rule and to be honest, do we really want too see mild air pumped into the Arctic in October when there is still large spaces of open water.

No doubt the winter lovers will be getting excited and I do find the Northern hemisphere charts during this October rather interesting and it does lead to more suggestions lower sea ice is having an affect on weather patterns but this can't be good for Arctic ice surely?

I do, but i don't want a severe winter here (can't believe i said those words) A very cold one would do,but it doesn't have to be -20 again, just enough for a nice amount of snow, gas bills will be too high this year anyway.

Edited October 19, 2012 by quest4peace

[Harve]

It's quite incredible that there's been an area of the Arctic the size of the UK freezing over every day recently.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Harve

[quest4peace]

Pretty much bang on with 2011 now Can we go higher? or will it settle down and follow 2011's line?

I notice 2007 and 2011's line was pretty much the same from now on for a while.

The latest IJIS value : 6,219,375 km² (October 19, 2012)

Edited October 20, 2012 by quest4peace

[quest4peace]

Edit: sorry for some reason I keep posting twice

Edited October 20, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

As noted elsewhere you only have record re-freeze rates after record melts? Once we do get to the normal basin levels it'll be time to see which areas are not freezing this year?

I think Barentsz and Kara are a given these days but will we also need to add in part of Baffin, East Siberian and Beaufort this time around?

My other concern is that the speed of refreeze of the central pack would appear to have been so rapid as to have now sealed in a lot of the heat accrued this summer (3m+ in the water column) meaning faster melt next season once ocean swells start to mix the ocean again. I think the 'new' 'Laptev Bite' that we've seen growing over the past 3 years has a bit of this to it and if so then next summer it will extend even closer to the pole on the back of last years stored warmth?

If this process is occurring then we can expect Beaufort to also melt out fast along with east Siberian as they also have plenty of 'stored' heat below 3m.

I feel there to be a reason for 07' and 11' both sharing a portion of the re-freeze as they both took out a lot of ice not normally taken over summer. At some point we reach the level where all years are bunched and it is then we need our volume data to really see how the ice is doing.

Sorry for not getting carried away with re-freeze but the scale of the melt under such 'average' conditions has me twitched.....I worry about next year and esp. the impacts on Greenland.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Polar Maritime]

Thanks for that GW...

So have we had a record re-freeze this year..? And what are your thought's on next years melt, another record low ?

PM.

[shuggee]

Interesting that we're beyond mid October and not even at the 1990s average minimum yet.

[stewfox]

Interesting that we're beyond mid October and not even at the 1990s average minimum yet.

Yep we are seeing large refreezes in areas that didnt even melt out in previous summers.

Volume has to be the big thing this year

[keithlucky]

Interesting that we're beyond mid October and not even at the 1990s average minimum yet.Already at same level as 2007.

Wrong Edited October 20, 2012 by keithlucky

[BornFromTheVoid]

Wrong

What do you think you're showing and what do you think you're trying to disprove?

What shuggee said is correct anyway.

1990s average minima is 6,426,100km2

Current extent is 6,288,400km2

[Methuselah]

Wrong

No Keith, Shuggs is definitely right enough!

[keithlucky]

No Keith, Shuggs is definitely right enough!

Not according to this

[Polar Maritime]

http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2012/10/18/fastest-arctic-ice-extent-refreeze-ever-in-31-days/

[shuggee]

Not according to this

That graph shows I am right Keith! As do the figures that BFTV posted. Not sure why you're not understanding this? The red line is 2012, i.e.now and the middle of the three grey dotted lines (the one that's medium shaded) is the average for the 1990s.

[stewfox]

http://sunshinehours...ver-in-31-days/

Obvioulsy with just a low start its going to be in terms of percentage a very large gain.

[Geordiesnow]

I think Barentsz and Kara are a given these days but will we also need to add in part of Baffin, East Siberian and Beaufort this time around?

I think the Barents sea could struggle this winter if we get a pattern similar to last winter of winds coming from the South/SE'ly direction as the ice edge will be just kept further back but if we get frequent Northerly winds, one would imagine ice extent will grow around this area. The Kara sea is similar but more likely to freeze as if we get winds coming from Russia, this will send not only cold air but very cold temperatures over the Kara. Apparently temperatures were around average if not just below during the summer so I would imagine SST's won't be too high?

Beaufort is the most concerning for me, and the outlook does not look good for much ice growth in this area as we get mild Southerlies from the Pacific, I'm sure the Beaufort sea was the warmest areas this summer with record high SST's so whilst this area should eventually refreeze, any delay will have an impact on next years melt especially if this area experiences a mild spring?

[quest4peace]

That graph shows I am right Keith! As do the figures that BFTV posted. Not sure why you're not understanding this? The red line is 2012, i.e.now and the middle of the three grey dotted lines (the one that's medium shaded) is the average for the 1990s.

It is clearly above the average "September" Minimum for the 00's not the 90's Without my morning cup of tea i thought it i saw it above the 90's line too.

Edited October 21, 2012 by quest4peace

[Buzzit]

No - think some people need to go to spec savers or learn how to read a basic graph and associated chart key.

[quest4peace]

No - think some people need to go to spec savers or learn how to read a basic graph and associated chart key.

Nope just a strong coffee It is sunday morning you know

Edited October 21, 2012 by quest4peace

[shuggee]

Specasavers indeed.

If anyone is having trouble reading a graph - as BFTV provided here's the raw data:

1990s average minima is 6,426,100km2

Current extent is 6,288,400km2

I only posted this becasue it is so shocking, unbelievable, scary, astonishing... In less than twenty years this Is what has happened: It now.takes until the end of October to reach the point that used to be the average minimum at the height of summer

[BornFromTheVoid]

IJIS has updated, with yesterday's gain increased to 166k and today's increase down as 183k, which means we've now passed 2011.

The graph below shows the shows the average daily gains for the 1st-20th in blue, the 10th to the 20th in orange and the 21st to 31st in red. What's interesting is the -ve correlation between extent increases between the 1-20th (blue) and 21st to 31st (red), which indicates that if you have a high rate of increase in the first 20 days, it will likely be low for the remainder of the month and vice versa.

EDIT: We've now passed the 90s average min, by 7k.

Edited October 21, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[quest4peace]

IJIS has updated, with yesterday's gain increased to 166k and today's increase down as 183k, which means we've now passed 2011.

The graph below shows the shows the average daily gains for the 1st-20th in blue, the 10th to the 20th in orange and the 21st to 31st in red. What's interesting is the -ve correlation between extent increases between the 1-20th (blue) and 21st to 31st (red), which indicates that if you have a high rate of increase in the first 20 days, it will likely be low for the remainder of the month and vice versa.

EDIT: We've now passed the 90s average, by 7k.

Good to be above 2011 now. But can't believe a month later than the average min date we are still aiming to catch the lowest extents of some years

Edited October 21, 2012 by quest4peace

[quest4peace]

Specasavers indeed.

If anyone is having trouble reading a graph - as BFTV provided here's the raw data:

1990s average minima is 6,426,100km2

Current extent is 6,288,400km2

I only posted this becasue it is so shocking, unbelievable, scary, astonishing... In less than twenty years this Is what has happened: It now.takes until the end of October to reach the point that used to be the average minimum at the height of summer

We are very "close" to the 90's average "September" MIN extent though, so some people are just nit picking, if it carries on with strong rises , we shall breach the average 90's "min" as well very soon, all be it a whole month behind of course We are above the 2000's Minimum though Technically we should be above all min extents by now in a "normal" year? Sad reflection on how much ice has been lost.

Arctic Sea-Ice Monitor

Extent and concentration map from yesterday's date Nice to see the ice starting to enclose in on siberia. can't help thinking sst's are stopping this area being totally filled by now as well Also, an obvious lack of ice due to the summers high sst's around Alaska and Canada at the mo. Also you can blatantly see the areas of thinner ice that need to thicken up a bit as it's still looking more like a jigsaw puzzle at the moment.

Couldn't post todays map, as it is still updating but looks like a little bit more filling going on with regards to the russian side on todays.

Edited October 21, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think we may see the sea ice completely seal up against the Siberian coast over the next week, but continued mild southerlies over the Beaufort sea my really slow down any ice growth here. There area anomaly for the Beaufort sea is already joint lowest on record, so the longer we go without ice growth, the greater the record anomaly will become and the thinner the ice will likely be by come next March.

18 days so far this month with the average anomaly over the Beaufort sea in the +ve low teens.