Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[quest4peace]

The latest IJIS value : 4,574,688 km² (October 8, 2012)

Forgive if already posted but another good gain of another 100 thousand odd? let's hope it keeps it up.

Edited October 9, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gavin Hannah]

If we can average close to 100K a day, we may catch the 2007 plot before last week of October. A BIG IF mind you.

[Interitus]

There is consolidation and growth of the ice pack where minimum temperatures have fallen to -30°c and below already. Outside of this area though temperatures are averaging only a couple of degrees below freezing over open water and there has not been any refreeze and so there has been no recovery in the ice extent anomaly yet. Be interesting how long refreeze would be delayed in a summer ice free scenario.

After a couple of weeks break at Dutch Harbor, Unalaska in the Aleutian Islands (home of TVs 'the deadliest catch'), the Healy has returned to the Arctic again so it will be possible to look for signs of ice outside the 80°N cap.

Location + conditions - http://www.sailwx.in...phtml?call=NEPP

Photos - http://icefloe.net/A....php?album=2012

[BornFromTheVoid]

If we can average close to 100K a day, we may catch the 2007 plot before last week of October. A BIG IF mind you.

Not quite. The average daily gain for October in 2007 was about 110k/day. As it is, we're currently about 540k behind, so to be ahead of 2007 by the end of the month, we need to gain an average of 150k/day. Not impossible, but pretty close to it!

EDIT: That's all going off the IJIS extent btw.

Edited October 9, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[quest4peace]

Seems to be a few more people like myself being braver and posting this ice season Good to be able to get everybody's input. And it keeps the more knowledgeable posters like BFTV,Gray Wolf and many others etc busy trying to answer our questions Would be interesting to hear from Carinthian in this thread, as I seem to remember he used to host the ice threads?

Edited October 9, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm certainly glad more folk are showing an interest in the subject of Arctic ice loss.

I've said before that I find it odd that , on a weather site, so few people appear concerned about the implications of the energy imbalance that open water over summer is able to bring to the northern hemispheres weather patterns?

I know that it is a very new subject but then so is the stratospheric impacts on our weather to many on the site yet the strat temp watch has a far greater population?

If the science is correct (or even 'in the ballpark') then the ice loss across the Arctic has a far greater impact on our day to day weather than SSW/MWW do?

If folk shy away due to the 'how did we get here?' side of the topic I'd say just ignore that side? We are here now and 'here' is what is impacting our weather patterns? We already seem to be seeing some 'record' cold plunges across the U.S. this autumn so the Jet does now seem to be responding to the heat pouring into the arctic atmosphere so how will this now start to impact us here in the U.K.? Will we be in a trough and see icy blasts or in a ridge and see heat drawn up from the tropics?

[Methuselah]

I tend to agree with you (re that effect on NW Europe's weather) GW...The 'acronyms' will do what the normally do, but the Arctic ice-melt is the new variable...

[Gavin Hannah]

Another good gain in Extent today on the IMS images. Hopefully another 100k+ increase.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cryosphere Today has updated to the 6th, with a large gain of nearly 160k. This takes the anomaly back below 2.5 million, and also puts us within 60k of the 2007 extent. which only gained around 80k over the next 2 days, so very likely we'll pass that soon.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

[Gavin Hannah]

Cryosphere Today has updated to the 6th, with a large gain of nearly 160k. This takes the anomaly back below 2.5 million, and also puts us within 60k of the 2007 extent. which only gained around 80k over the next 2 days, so very likely we'll pass that soon.

http://arctic.atmos....edu/cryosphere/

Awesome. Must be getting very cold up there.

[Gray-Wolf]

Though I'm pleased to see the ice return I'm still concerned about what we will see occur over the coming months due to the heat currently available over the open areas? I for one am watching the GFS 06's to see if we start to have 'odd patterns' emerge (like the static low out in FI?) as if we are to blame 'odd weather' on low ice then this years record lows should make them even more apparent?

After re-freeze is over we will then be waiting for thickness reports to see how well the ice is thickening and hoping we do not see any repeat of this years low thickness over Beaufort and East Siberian seas? somehow I think we can expect low extents over Barrentsz and Kara these days but how will Baffin respond?

The other area I'll be watching is Bering as we may well see a repeat of this springs 'surge' if wind patterns are being driven by snow /ice loss?

[4wd]

It's probably a bit premature to be worrying about next spring in early October.

[Nights King]

Cryosphere Today has updated to the 6th, with a large gain of nearly 160k. This takes the anomaly back below 2.5 million, and also puts us within 60k of the 2007 extent. which only gained around 80k over the next 2 days, so very likely we'll pass that soon.

http://arctic.atmos....edu/cryosphere/

Nice to see another large increase! I know it is not really very well understood to this day but could we get slightly faster and greater daily gains because of the strange phenomenom where warmer water (relatively speaking) freezes faster than colder water?

[quest4peace]

http://www.ijis.iarc...ice-monitor.cgi

AMSR2 Sea ice concentration map from IJIS 10/10/12

nice to see the ice forming around the siberian coasts now

Compared to the same day in 2007, notice the different ice distribution between the years.Open sea is slightly closer to the pole in 2007 even though there is more ice in other areas compared to today.

Edited October 10, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gavin Hannah]

http://www.ijis.iarc...ice-monitor.cgi

AMSR2 Sea ice concentration map from IJIS 10/10/12

nice to see the ice forming around the siberian coasts now

Compared to the same day in 2007, notice the different ice distribution between the years.Open sea is slightly closer to the pole in 2007 even though there is more ice in other areas compared to today.

From that picture, I would hazard a guess and say that it is colder around the pole now than it was in 2007. Thats going by those pictures though.

[quest4peace]

From that picture, I would hazard a guess and say that it is colder around the pole now than it was in 2007. Thats going by those pictures though.

Hi IBringTheHammer I reckon so too, a little bit of moving the ice around on the 2007 map and were actually not far behind at all now? Still bad that we were behind at all but all we can do is wait and see if we can keep up our 100 thousand odd increases up

Here is last years concentration and extent, were quite a bit behind 2011still.

Edited October 10, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just a small increase on the NSIDC extent today of 31k, which gives us a new record anomaly of -3.07million km2 on the 1979-2011 average (3.63million below the 79-00 average) and nearly 560k below 2007.

[quest4peace]

Just a small increase on the NSIDC extent today of 31k, which gives us a new record anomaly of -3.07million km2 on the 1979-2011 average (3.63million below the 79-00 average) and nearly 560k below 2007.

So we need 5 or 6 days well over 100k to break even with 2007? why are we getting two different increase sizes between IJIS and NSIDC? is one slightly behind the other?

Edited October 10, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

So we need 5 or 6 days well over 100k to break even with 2007? why are we getting two different increase sizes between IJIS and NSIDC? is one slightly behind the other?

IJIS use a sensor with a much higher spatial resolution, so in theory should be more accurate than the lower resolution sensor used by the NSIDC.

Both places will use different processing techniques also. It is still a big difference though.

[quest4peace]

IJIS use a sensor with a much higher spatial resolution, so in theory should be more accurate than the lower resolution sensor used by the NSIDC.

Both places will use different processing techniques also. It is still a big difference though.

Does that mean the IJIS sensor can see ice, which is thinner than the NSIDC one can so it reports more extent, all be it a certain percentage thinner? would it not be easier just to stick with IJIS'S Amsr2 sensor as it sees more? or is it not as straight forward as that? Thanks in advance. Think i'm asking too many questions at nearly bed time.

Edited October 10, 2012 by quest4peace

[Interitus]

Nice to see another large increase! I know it is not really very well understood to this day but could we get slightly faster and greater daily gains because of the strange phenomenom where warmer water (relatively speaking) freezes faster than colder water?

Very doubtful, the Mpemba effect has not been completely explained and it is incorrect to say that warmer water always freezes faster - it requires quite strict conditions to be consistently reproducible even in the laboratory, never mind the open ocean which is mixed physically, chemically and thermally.

Some of the most likely explanations involve supercooling below freezing point then freezing depends on the ice nucleation temperature of impurities in the water, as explained for example here -

"When does hot water freeze faster then cold water? A search for the Mpemba effect" - http://milli-bar.com...jp_2011_720.pdf

Supercooling does give rise to some cool effects such as freezing bottled water instantly when agitated, here is one of many youtube videos -

Also, supercooled brine formed by the freezing sea water can form ice under the surface as witnessed in the impressive 'brinicles' -

Edited October 11, 2012 by Interitus

[BornFromTheVoid]

Does that mean the IJIS sensor can see ice, which is thinner than the NSIDC one can so it reports more extent, all be it a certain percentage thinner? would it not be easier just to stick with IJIS'S Amsr2 sensor as it sees more? or is it not as straight forward as that? Thanks in advance. Think i'm asking too many questions at nearly bed time.

It should be able to pick up on areas of lower sea ice concentration.

The main difference arises is where the resolution of the sensors are quite coarse (say 25km), the signal near coastlines consist of a mix of land/ocean and ice all at once. So they don't give false readings, a buffer zone of say 25km out from the coast is classed as ice free, whether there is ice there or not.

With a higher resolution sensor, they can narrow down that coastal buffer zone, and thus include more ice in their readings.

Sorry if that's not explained too well. Tis quite early and the coffee hasn't kicked in yet!

[quest4peace]

It should be able to pick up on areas of lower sea ice concentration.

The main difference arises is where the resolution of the sensors are quite coarse (say 25km), the signal near coastlines consist of a mix of land/ocean and ice all at once. So they don't give false readings, a buffer zone of say 25km out from the coast is classed as ice free, whether there is ice there or not.

With a higher resolution sensor, they can narrow down that coastal buffer zone, and thus include more ice in their readings.

Sorry if that's not explained too well. Tis quite early and the coffee hasn't kicked in yet!

That was fine thanks especially at that time in the morning I suppose to get a more rounded idea of a situation it is best to use many sources and then you have all bases covered

Edited October 11, 2012 by quest4peace

[quest4peace]

Around an 89k gain this time?.

The latest IJIS value : 4,752,656 km² (October 10, 2012)

[pottyprof]

If your posts are missing, that's because the topic was drifting well away into Neverland.

You'll find your posts here >> http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74595-antarctic-ice-where-are-we-heading/