Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[quest4peace]

Much roomier now we can just stick to the ice increase now and not get way laid

Current northern hemisphere sea ice anom like BFTV says it should be called cryosphere 2 days ago though So the there might be a higher or lower anom by today.

http://arctic.atmos....edu/cryosphere/

-2.555 million on the anomaly front

Edited October 11, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

A quick and slightly late update.

The NSIDC had the biggest extent gain so far this refreeze on the 10th, jumping by 203k. This takes the anomaly back below 3 million, and moves us to "just" 407k off 2007.

[quest4peace]

A quick and slightly late update.

The NSIDC had the biggest extent gain so far this refreeze on the 10th, jumping by 203k. This takes the anomaly back below 3 million, and moves us to "just" 407k off 2007.

More gains like that please

The IJIS latest value : 4,868,438 km² (October 11, 2012)

Looks like were keeping the strong daily 100k+ gains up Long may it continue around a 115K gain?

The angle of the line is very encouraging at the moment IMO

Edited October 12, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Good to see those gains but I'm also aware of quite a large low now in the basin so we could still have a bit of pack disruption is swells are generated in the open water?

With the ice front still thin we may well see this broken and a stall/reduction in extent/area. Only a blip but if we do see this it would be interesting to check the tethered buoy plots just inside the ice to see if we have any mixing of the ocean behind the ice front?

[stewfox]

Good to see those gains but I'm also aware of quite a large low now in the basin so we could still have a bit of pack disruption is swells are generated in the open water?

With the ice front still thin we may well see this broken and a stall/reduction in extent/area. Only a blip but if we do see this it would be interesting to check the tethered buoy plots just inside the ice to see if we have any mixing of the ocean behind the ice front?

This year I am not going to be taken in by these big early gains, nice to see and as mention there could be a number of reasons.However it will probably be early November before we equal some of the summer minmums of the 1980s.

Its like a team with a minus 78 Goal difference scoring two goals , nice to see but no Championship medal yet.

[quest4peace]

Good to see those gains but I'm also aware of quite a large low now in the basin so we could still have a bit of pack disruption is swells are generated in the open water?

With the ice front still thin we may well see this broken and a stall/reduction in extent/area. Only a blip but if we do see this it would be interesting to check the tethered buoy plots just inside the ice to see if we have any mixing of the ocean behind the ice front?

Let's hope the low doesn't disrupt it too much as another big set back could be disastrous?

This year I am not going to be taken in by these big early gains, nice to see and as mention there could be a number of reasons.However it will probably be early November before we equal some of the summer minmums of the 1980s.

Its like a team with a minus 78 Goal difference scoring two goals , nice to see but no Championship medal yet.

Like always only time will tell Let's hope the low doesn't cause too much damage.

Edited October 12, 2012 by quest4peace

[knocker]

Good to see those gains but I'm also aware of quite a large low now in the basin so we could still have a bit of pack disruption is swells are generated in the open water?

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA

115 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 10 2012

FORECAST VALID...MONDAY OCTOBER 15 2012

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE.

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH SLOPE OF ALASKA

THROUGH TONIGHT. A POLAR LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI AND

BEAUFORT SEAS TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST

ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY. THE POLAR LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT

REMAINS OVER THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE OF

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN SIBERIA FRIDAY AND REMAIN

THROUGH MONDAY.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php

[Gray-Wolf]

I don't know if things work differently near the pole but a low with H.P.'s on 3 sides is going to impact the tightness of the isobars/wind isn't it?

[knocker]

I would think that would be the case GW.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Another well above average increase for the NSIDC extent yesterday, this time almost 192,000km2.

This leaves us 2.857 million below the 79-11 average, and 276k below 2007.

This takes the average daily increase this month up to 93.8k/day, compared to the October average of 89k/day.

[Methuselah]

Another well above average increase for the NSIDC extent yesterday, this time almost 192,000km2.

This leaves us 2.857 million below the 79-11 average, and 276k below 2007.

This takes the average daily increase this month up to 93.8k/day, compared to the October average of 89k/day.

That amount of ice-formation mustn't half release a lot of latent heat into the lower atmosphere?

[BornFromTheVoid]

That amount of ice-formation mustn't half release a lot of latent heat into the lower atmosphere?

Plenty of extra energy near the surface anyway...

[Methuselah]

Plenty of extra energy near the surface anyway...

Which MIGHT give rise to increased heights dominating to our north, come December? Which would, in turn, add extra impetus to the already promising signals...

[keithlucky]

Arctic ice growing rapidly http://arctic-roos.o...mi1_ice_ext.png

[quest4peace]

That chart shows extent near 6 million and above 2007? something they know that the others dont?

Edited October 12, 2012 by quest4peace

[Geordiesnow]

The Norwegian site tend to be higher than the others and I don't really read into them charts too much in all honesty.

Although its good too see the extent going up, its still the lowest on record and lets be honest, the ice extent should go up because if it doesn't then we should be worried!

And regarding the deep low, unlike the summer, we got cold uppers across the Arctic and temperatures below zero, some quite cold air heading into the Laptev sea which will help to cool the SST's down there so I'll be surprised if the extent to slow down or even drop, if anything, we probably will see bigger increases I would of thought.

[Gavin Hannah]

Ice is also forming around the Siberian coastline now.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some large contrasts today.

IJIS had another large gain, this time jumping by 129k to 4,997,500km2 and to within 267k of 2007.

Meanwhile, the NSIDC extent increased by only 32k to 4,992,60km2, and to within 248k of 2007.

Going by the NSIDC data, 2007 averaged over 160k/day from now until the end of the month, so it will be interesting to see if we can match it this year.

[knocker]

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA

125 PM AKDT FRIDAY OCTOBER 12 2012

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 17 2012

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH TO MODERATE.

SYNOPSIS...A POLAR LOW WILL PERSIST IN THE CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEAS

THROUGH TUESDAY... THEN SLOWLY SHIFT WEST INTO THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA

WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN SIBERIA

THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/ice.php

[quest4peace]

The latest IJIS value : 5,113,594 km² (October 13, 2012)

An increase of around 116k, ever so close to touching the 2007 line now

[Gavin Hannah]

We are half way through the month now and I didn't think we would get this close to the 2007 plot. I thought it was a bit ambitious to catch it by now, but, it's done remarkably well.

[quest4peace]

We are half way through the month now and I didn't think we would get this close to the 2007 plot. I thought it was a bit ambitious to catch it by now, but, it's done remarkably well.

I'm finding myself willing it on now the angle of climb looks like it slowed a little in 2007? and our current years line is looking a bit steeper will it slow down as well? or will we be pleasantly surprised Hopefully the latter please.I do still think behind 2007 at all is atrocious, but let's see

Edited October 14, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just 221k behind 2007 now on the IJIS data set. The average gain from now until the end of the month in 2007 was 148k/day (nearly 2.7 million in the next 18 days!), so we want to be averaging over 160k/day to catch it.

[quest4peace]

Just 221k behind 2007 now on the IJIS data set. The average gain from now until the end of the month in 2007 was 148k/day (nearly 2.7 million in the next 18 days!), so we want to be averaging over 160k/day to catch it.

Looking at how the refreeze has gone so far, do you think it is possible, we could achieve this figure of increase needed as we've done so well to catch back up to 2007? Could we catch any of the others in your opinion

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at how the refreeze has gone so far, do you think it is possible, we could achieve this figure of increase needed as we've done so well to catch back up to 2007? Could we catch any of the others in your opinion

I think it's definitely possible, just unlikely. My best guess would be that we catch some of the previous years around mid-November.

On the record IJIS record, only 6 years since '79 averaged over 100k/day from now until months end. Only 2 of those we over 140k/day (2007 and 1995) and none have been over 150k/day, so it kinda gives you an idea of how exceptional the growth rate would need to be to catch 2007!