Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The Mediterranean-like summer climate was predicted for the latter half of this century. Complaining that it hasn't arrived now is like whining that it hasn't stated snowing yet in September. That's just a straw man argument.

 

As for the no mechanism claims, read the actual paper. It suggests several mechanisms. Because there may be a link between low sea ice and wetter summers here, that doesn't mean it overides everything else all the time. Yet another silly straw man arguments.

[UV-RAY]

The Mediterranean-like summer climate was predicted for the latter half of this century. Complaining that it hasn't arrived now is like whining that it hasn't stated snowing yet in September. That's just a straw man argument.

 

As for the no mechanism claims, read the actual paper. It suggests several mechanisms. Because there may be a link between low sea ice and wetter summers here, that doesn't mean it overides everything else all the time. Yet another silly straw man arguments.

Actually they changed the prediction for Mediterranean summers from the early part of the 21st century to the latter part when it was obvious to all that this wasn't going to happen, hence the press release a few years back on stocking up on Mediterranean plants now. Personally I'm looking at the facts in front of me such as no warming going on  for nearly 17 years, when that starts to show an uptick you'll get my attention until then it's as you were.

[Devonian]

Getting OT but this "Actually they changed the prediction for Mediterranean summers from the early part of the 21st century to the latter part when it was obvious to all that this wasn't going to happen" is news to me.

 

Of course I guess it's about who 'they' are.

[Gray-Wolf]

N.I.M.B.Y. ism at it's worse?  The climate is changing around us whether folk wish to see it or not. As ever the misleaders begin with the " we were told...." mime and omit the natural variation that everyone "Expects" to occur in and amongst? We see our European neighbours suffering 03' type summers throughout the past decade and because the amplified, low ice augmented, jet put us under cloud and rain ( whilst they basked!) the 'Med' prediction for our neck of the woods is bust??? Ask your German/Dutch counterparts how the prediction is panning out!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Actually they changed the prediction for Mediterranean summers from the early part of the 21st century to the latter part when it was obvious to all that this wasn't going to happen, hence the press release a few years back on stocking up on Mediterranean plants now. Personally I'm looking at the facts in front of me such as no warming going on  for nearly 17 years, when that starts to show an uptick you'll get my attention until then it's as you were.

 

Can you show me where the evidence is for this? Also, it's not particularly relevant to the paper on sea ice changes and summer precip, is it!

 

Once again, measuring climate on a short time scale is pointless, and no statistically significant warming is different to no warming. So it ain't a fact SI!

[UV-RAY]

Can you show me where the evidence is for this? Also, it's not particularly relevant to the paper on sea ice changes and summer precip, is it!

 

Once again, measuring climate on a short time scale is pointless, and no statistically significant warming is different to no warming. So it ain't a fact SI!

I'll try and dig out the relevant media source for it BFTV, but I'll post in the sceptic thread as your right it doesn't belong in here.

[Gray-Wolf]

It appears to me that certain groups within the climate discussion have difficulties in this area of the debate?

 

Maybe if we turned the thing around and asked if folk would expect changes to the weather if ice once again covered Baffin year round and ice extended down the east coast of Greenland, year round, leaving an ice bridge to Iceland.

 

Would folk expect our weather to be different under such conditions?

[stewfox]

 

It appears to me that certain groups within the climate discussion have difficulties in this area of the debate?

 

Maybe if we turned the thing around and asked if folk would expect changes to the weather if ice once again covered Baffin year round and ice extended down the east coast of Greenland, year round, leaving an ice bridge to Iceland.

 

Would folk expect our weather to be different under such conditions?

 

So how do we get the ice bridge back so the Wolfs and cross to iceland

 

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=1289

 

This year we are seeing some below average sea temps of East Greenland north of Iceland so a good start (click abnormalities)

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=sst;sess

 

as was the theme in September

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/

 

Looking good

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Edited November 2, 2013 by stewfox

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=210#commenttop

 

Yes stew , patterns certainly switched this year?

 

Could the extra energy from last autumn have helped 'jog on' the major jet pattern allowing the highs ( and lows) to hang out over different regions ( compared to where 07' shunted them) ?

 

The record warmth in Alaska is one thing but the prospects for west coast water supply, should the pattern remain, are a whole other bag of worms. 

 

Should we see the 'new configuration' persist maybe some folk will be looking for record low ice next summer if only to allow enough energy in the system to 'jolt' the jet around again and alleviate the destructive patterns they are currently blighted with?

 

The other thing on my mind this year are the SSW's. Should we be seeing a different pattern around the N.Hemisphere ( average trough and peak positions) will we have the correct set up to set in motion SSW's or will that pattern also be the reverse this year?

 

EDIT: And before any NIMBY joker decides they didn't see any 'extremes blighting nations of the N.Hemisphere' I suggest a quick 'Google' on 2013 extreme weather events.......plenty to go at there.....

Edited November 2, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[4wd]

 allow enough energy in the system to 'jolt' the jet around again and alleviate the destructive patterns they are currently blighted with?

 

 

Where's that then, it seems to have been a fairly normal/average/typical/ not blighted year to me.

[Gray-Wolf]

Are you really being serious here 4? After the floods,droughts,heat-waves,cold-waves of the year so far you have seen nothing of concern? Maybe you are just more able to see the 'new norm' as your 'new average' and so note nothing of more/worse impact than recent years?

[UV-RAY]

Are you really being serious here 4? After the floods,droughts,heat-waves,cold-waves of the year so far you have seen nothing of concern? Maybe you are just more able to see the 'new norm' as your 'new average' and so note nothing of more/worse impact than recent years?

But your confusing weather with climate GW.

[Methuselah]

But your confusing weather with climate GW.

That's why I related the question to weather, SI... 

[Gray-Wolf]

But the thread is about impacted 'Weather' SI????? 

 

EDIT: Beat me to it Pete! 

Edited November 4, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[UV-RAY]

But the thread is about impacted 'Weather' SI?????  EDIT: Beat me to it Pete!

Apologies for being an dozy so and so, I blame it on the clocks going back the other weekend, honest!

[Interitus]

Could've posted this in new research but thought more pertinent here -

 

Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation

 

Open access paper + video abstract here-

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/044015

 

[4wd]

Some claim that melting Arctic ice can lead to colder winters in the UK and N Europe. So, with Arctic ice having recovered to the highest level since 2006, but still below the 1981-2010 mean, will our winters be?

 

1) Much colder than normal?

2) Warmer than last year?

3) Warm and sunny.

4) Bloody cold?

5) A typical English winter?

6) All of the above ?

7) Ignored in favour of some small part of the planet that is having a mild winter?

 

 

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/02/alarmists-arctic-ice-quiz/

[Devonian]

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/02/alarmists-arctic-ice-quiz/

Very good (I suppose) but should the rest of us be interested in observations and data or fatuous bloggers?

[4wd]

Which option did you choose, and does it matter?

[UV-RAY]

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/11/02/alarmists-arctic-ice-quiz/

It's another myth that ice conditions  in the arctic dictate our winters, if that was the case then what about 1947, 1963, the winters in the 40s, the Maunder and Dalton Minimum........ The list goes on

[Gray-Wolf]

So when ice levels are high we see no impacts? Ice ages have nothing to do with the ice and all to do with Solar??? 

 

If at the extremes you accept impact then why not the stages on the way to extremes? Surely you accept both the impact of ice cover on the temps adjacent to it? Surely you accept the albedo impacts of ice compared to land/open water?

 

I certainly expect that higher than historic ice conditions would impact global hemisphere weather patterns so why would I not expect lower ice conditions to impact?

[Methuselah]

It's another myth that ice conditions  in the arctic dictate our winters, if that was the case then what about 1947, 1963, the winters in the 40s, the Maunder and Dalton Minimum........ The list goes on

Considering that no-one has ever suggested that Arctic ice does 'dictate' our winters, what exactly is your point?

 

PS: Edited title so as to prevent any 'misunderstanding'...

Edited November 6, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue

[4wd]

My nickname is Dangerous Brian so I go with:

5) A typical English winter

[Gray-Wolf]

I think conditions that favour rapid expulsion of Arctic air masses south will impact the countries the air mass ends up affecting? When such migrations are an extension of a healthy Arctic cold core this is not an issue. When that cold is lost to the Basin only to be replaced by warm air then we see the temp issues over the high Arctic that we have become accustomed to. Maybe this year we will again see less of this behaviour with cold air trapped over the basin and not spilling south?

[4wd]

I think it's just weather, and trying to pin short term trends on ice levels hundreds of miles away is pointless.