Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[Methuselah]

Agree with J and LG: whatever the causes of things really are, the 'blame game' has become all too popular, of late...

Capitalism at work, I guess...

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd agree that insurers are in the game of paying out as little as possible and so need to try and keep on top of the 'game' to limit thier losses. As such if anyone is desperate for the latest take on where AGW is heading us it is the insurers?

As for 'The Blame Game'? it's weather guys? we are all here because we love weather. All folk are doing is understanding what 'drives' certain weather phenomina and if global changes are promoting augmentations to regional climates then of course we need to know how this is occuring?

It's a no brainer that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture. We know Hurricanes need water temps above a certain min to form. As oceans and atmosphere warm we must surely see a widening of the hurricane/cyclone/Typhoon belt? We must surely see rain events inrease in their impacts?

Many of the homes flooded in the second flood here over summer had never been flooded before. The exceptional rain amounts turned footpaths into 2nd and 3rd order streams enabling them to flood through hillside properties on their way down the valley. These were home near 200yrs old with no flooding history. It is not all expanding onto flood plains and modern buildings that are in the firing line from our more intense rainfall and the insurers know this if you guys choose to doubt it.

[4wd]

You really can't hold up a few summer rainstorms or whatever as evidence of some significant shift in climate patterns.

That post is a prime example of carefully worded prose designed to imply there is evidence when there is not.

Extreme weather has always been something that happens from time to time and by its very nature a few places will see conditions worse than anyone remembers - but to leap from that to declaring some terrible irreversible change must be afoot is naive and frankly ridiculous.

It's plain from your signature that your prime purpose for posting in weather forums is to advance this catastrophist viewpoint.

[Methuselah]

One thing that a greater extent of early-winter open-water (in the Arctic Ocean regions) ought to do, is to prime the atmosphere for 'lake-effect' snow events...Could that be what's initiated the, somewhat more widespread than usual, snowfall in so many north-facing coastal zones this year?

[BornFromTheVoid]

It's that old chestnut coming back again.

• The globe has naturally warmed in the past

• The globe is currently warming

• Current warming is therefore natural

The new version

• Extreme weather events have always occurred in the past without human influence

• There are currently lots of extreme weather events

• Therefore, the extreme weather has no human influence

Of course, then we'll hear people complaining that all the predictions made associated with AGW aren't happening, while at the same time denying any attempts, scientific or otherwise, to link changes in weather with AGW!

A little understanding can go a long way in these situations. Dogma and inertia is all too prevalent.

Edit: Chestnuts and Cherries

Edited November 14, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

The next line will be the 'Internet allows us better access to extreme weather reports past ages would not have allowed to hear of.....'

There does seem to be a pattern emerging here does there not?

I re-read the 07' Arctic thread the other evening, odd some of the things we forget folk have said? it would appear that no matter the scale of the 'event' one size fits all for the folk who wish to 'normalise ' it as 'common place' We heard similar things when ice plummeted 22% below the past lowest min as we did when it fell another 18% below that this year?

Each heatwave the robs the 3rd world of food aid is just 'extreme weather that always happens' no matter if it is merely the next year on in a different destination but driven by the same obscene Jet gyrations as the last one.

Each 'record melt' of Greenland is the same as the last (even if these days sees them separated by 2 years and not 160 yrs).

Every time Hebden floods "it's happened before" (but not 50cm over the largest flood prior ,in 1997, before the 'new' flood alleviation schemes were fully implemented nor 1 month apart).

If all of the extreme event 'I' have highlighted ,over the last 6 years, were spaced over 60 years I'd be edging towards you having a point but I think the odds are in my favour these days and extreme events are occurring more frequently and with greater impacts than ever recorded.

Odd that we live in an age where we predict such events should become more common don't you think? Must just be a long set of coincidences?

[keithlucky]

What extreme weather events Hurricane Sandy diden"t get into the top 10 for powerful storms ,take the two poles ice max and minimum and the ice total is down only 5 percent .You keep on predicting the day after tomorrow scenario, and it is just not happening GW.

[Gray-Wolf]

Good job Sandy was such a 'low impacter' then Kieth? Could have been so much worse?

If we are now all agreed that GAC12 was an exceptional event then what of the next one as this 'new' type of storm evolves and becomes ever more common?

What of the next late season 'cane running up the eastern seaboard? will it find another anomalous hp there? As we move deeper into AGW we do indeed see shear take it's toll on the lesser T.S.'s and allow only the stronger ones to maintain and grow. What happens to the warm surface water that used to be churned up by the progression of 'Canes? Does that just sit warming awaiting a storm big enough to overcome shear? and by late season will we see more opportunity for big 'canes to develop from the waters not mixed up by storms? Are we seeing a 'new' phase of late season 'canes coming into being?

I think we can guarantee more exceptional weather across the Northern hemisphere and I'm equally sure some folk will again try to prove it 'normal'. How much of this will Joe P. take before he accepts that it is far from 'normal' and that some folk are being plain daft by maintaining it is? AGW will not just go away and we are only seeing the beginnings of it's impacts across the globe. Like the Oil Tanker it takes a lot of energy to break the inertia and get things moving but once it is on the way? Don't think you can stop it just like that.

[4wd]

Really no evidence to back up that rant, as others have said hurricane activity is not increasing and an argument can be made that hurricanes could actually be less intense in a warmer world.

Obviously desiring to back up the irreversible changes and destruction ideas promoted in your sig this is not what you want to hear

I suppose we will just have to put up with a chorus of posts claiming warming has made every normal weather event worse or even caused it outright.

Rational people with a less naive outlook can see through such nonsense easily enough.

.

[knocker]

Really no evidence to back up that rant, as others have said hurricane activity is not increasing and an argument can be made that hurricanes could actually be less intense in a warmer world.

Frequency of Atlantic hurricanes doubled over last century, climate change suspected

BOULDER--About twice as many Atlantic hurricanes form each year on average than a century ago, according to a new statistical analysis of hurricanes and tropical storms in the north Atlantic. The study concludes that warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and altered wind patterns associated with global climate change are fueling much of the increase.

The study, by Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Peter Webster of Georgia Institute of Technology, will be published online July 30 in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.

"These numbers are a strong indication that climate change is a major factor in the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes," says Holland.

http://www.eurekaler...foa_1072507.php

I would be grateful if you would care to elaborate on your "less intense" argument as the studies I've seen suggest the opposite. Put simplistically in a warmer world and SSTs there will be more energy floating around.

Edited November 15, 2012 by knocker

[Interitus]

One aspect of increased hurricane activity is the increasing length of the North Atlantic hurricane season - as shown in this NOAA report from last month -

Estimating the Length of the North Atlantic Hurricane Basin Hurricane Season http://ntrs.nasa.gov..._2012017277.pdf

When the length of season data is cross correlated with air and sea temperatures it can be seen to be increasingly tied to rising temperatures from the 1980s onwards, confirming earlier research that the season is lengthening and warming appears to be causal.

While it is accepted that a few smaller or remote storms may have been missed in the past, this increase in season length is noted well after the start of the satellite era in the 1960s.

[loafer]

Worth Googling images for "number of hurricanes per year" to see how statistical beauty is in the eye of the beholder - depending how you analyse, the data can make your chosen case.

This result from North Carolina seemed to be pretty down the middle and sensible, at first glance;

http://www.coastal.geology.ecu.edu/NCCOHAZ/NC_Hurricane_History.html

NC Hurricane History: A Historically Slow Start and Strong Finish

Understanding the history of hurricanes is complicated as the strength and frequency of storms varies in time and space. By, defining a specific place (e.g., North Carolina) or time (e.g., the last decade) the history of storms is more explicitly defined and can be better comprehended.

Before discussing the history of tropical storms in NC we need to add some context. As you can see in Table 1 below, NC is defined as a relatively high risk area with 46 direct hits over the period analyzed; only Florida (110) and Texas (59) were hit by more. These hurricanes took a variety of strengths, shapes and sizes, and as a result their impacts varied dramatically. Four of the NC hurricanes are infamously listed as �billion dollar disasters� (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/reports/billion/billion2008.pdf), and these include Fran (1996), Bonnie (1998), Floyd (1999) and Isabel (2003). However, none of the NC events were the most deadly, costly or most intense mainland U.S. hurricanes. The deadliest was a Category 4 hurricane that struck Galveston in 1900.

The costliest (in unadjusted dollars) was Katrina in 2005, totaling ~$100 billion (see link above and below). The most intense reached 892 millibars in the Florida Keys in 1935. To get more details on the deadliest, costliest and most intense tropical cyclones in the mainland U.S. from 1851 to 2006, view the following report: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Deadliest_Costliest.shtml. To view the tracks of recent and historical storms, check out this slick new web site: http://www.stormpulse.com/.

These can also be viewed, queried and downloaded from the NOAA Coastal Services Center: http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html.

[Harve]

Christ, reading this thread is beyond frustrating, especially when I don't feel qualified enough to counter them. Still, I can at least recognise the fallacies BFTV pointed out on the previous page. Some ignore anything that counters their argument, but instead responds by picking away at a small, controvertible piece of information given.

...and then ending posts with things like this: "Rational people with a less naive outlook can see through such nonsense easily enough."

Edited November 15, 2012 by Harve

[4wd]

[4wd]

http://www.aoml.noaa.../gw_hurricanes/

With such modest and mixed alterations anticipated several decades away, what does global warming imply for hurricane activity today? The ~1°F (~0.5°C) ocean temperature warming has likely made hurricanes stronger today by about 1%. Thus even for a Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 5 hurricane - like Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico - the increase in hurricane winds are on the order of 1-2 mph (2-3 kph) today.

Edited November 15, 2012 by 4wd

[4wd]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/

The 1886 hurricane season has been analyzed to be the busiest on record for the continental United States.Seven hurricanes were recorded to have hit the U.S.: a Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Scale Category 2 hurricane into Texas and Louisiana in June, two Category 2 hurricanes into northwest Florida in June, a Category 1 hurricane into northwest Florida in July, the Category 4 "Indianola" hurricane into Texas in August, a Category 1 hurricane into Texas in September, and a Category 3 hurricane into Louisiana in October. The previous busiest hurricane season for the United States was 1985 with six landfalling hurricanes.

2. Extremely busy Decade for the U.S. Atlantic seaboard: The 1890s were one of the busiest decades on record for the Atlantic seaboard of the United States. Four major hurricanes impacted the coast from Georgia northward - the 1893 Category 3 "Sea Islands Hurricane" in Georgia and South Carolina, another 1893 Category 3 in South Carolina and North Carolina, an 1898 Category 4 in Georgia, and a 1899 Category 3 in North Carolina. Only the decade of the 1950s had more strong hurricanes making landfall along this part of the coast, going back to 1851 when reliable records began.

Not that it will do any good, I am an unbeliever and must be ignored.

Edited November 15, 2012 by 4wd

[Devonian]

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/

Not that it will do any good, I am an unbeliever and must be ignored.

So, should I expect a reply?

[keithlucky]

The sea surface temperature anomalies along Sandy’s storm track haven’t risen in 70+ years and that there was nothing unusual about the sea surface temperature anomalies there during October 2012. I have established and discussed for years that there is no anthropogenic global warming component in the warming of global sea surface temperatures or ocean heat content.Enough said.

Edited November 15, 2012 by keithlucky

[Rainy]

North East Lancs rain. Let's not get too bogged down in hurricanes. Please remember the sodden western upslopes and uplands in the UK.

Attached here -- Monthly tables based on daily records here on the Met Off site on our farm, same kit, same site since Sept 1968.

A relative has kindly processed the figures

Left side shows the entire run from the start of 1969. Months are coloured -- darkest blue the wettest, darkest pink the driest. Months about average are left white. Gradation of paler shades in between.

The table on the right side is produced by "Conditional formatting and Conditional shading from Microsoft Office Excel 2010 program". The idea was to make a visual aid based on the data to give an impression of the variation in the rain. Same colouring system.

Various groupings of months are shown. No matter what grouping, for sure the increasingly difficult situation in recent years for farmers and growers due to excessive rain stands out.

Now the thing is --- what correlation is there, if any, with the Arctic sea ice melt. Comparing the runs of Arctic sea ice extent and area graphs is interesting. I'd be pleased to have anyone's comments.

Are we looking at sharing the same problem with the Arctic -- the heating up of seawater?

Those of us living next to the huge hot angry Atlantic for sure seem to suffer most in the UK.

We all hope for a better growing season next year. But I fear we are in a deteriorating climate.

Hope this pdf works!

Oops no.

How do I attach a pdf?

[Rainy]

Maybe I've attached it properly now.?

See previous post.

Chipping Rainfall.pdf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Maybe I've attached it properly now.?

See previous post.

Could you attach it as an excel spreadsheet instead?

Could try some correlations then, though being just one location I doubt they'd amount to much.

[loafer]

I think it would be a leap to correlate with Arctic sea ice sensibly, but a very interesting dataset even so.

I suppose the next question is, are we back to the 80's (shoulder pads, huge mobile phones, greed is good?), or is this a systemic change? Only time will tell, but it does certainly illustrate how wet the summers have been for the last few years.

So much for drought, eh?

[Rainy]

It was "nice" in the 70s Loafer.

Thanks BFTV.

Will this do?

Rain 1968 - 2011, months, Chipping, Lancs.xls

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for the effort Rainy! We are East of you on the top of the Pennines between Leeds and Mcr and so also get quite a wallop. You can see how the summer period since the onset of the major changes across the Arctic (98 onward for the Snow loss and 06 ish onward for open ocean).

As with the nature of 'weather' you can see the odd years sticking out (1980) but the clumping of blue over summer the past decade tells it's own tale!

I'm sure that we will pass through this period (other factors will surely start to dictate the Jets trough/peak positioning?) and start to see more red months appearing over summer?

With the moderation of the Atlantic it would be nice for us to see hot, dry summers and then winters wet enough to make up any shortfall?

[Interitus]

If you look at June mslp at Lerwick over the past 40 years it has shown a slight decrease, while that for Reykjavik has had a larger increase. In isolation these changes are not statistically significant according to data at the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project (ECAD) but taken together their trends suggests a noticeable change in low pressure tracks towards the UK.

Edited November 16, 2012 by Interitus