Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[Gray-Wolf]

We're at the same point that we are at in the general climate change discussions in that 'natural/solar' will have impacts (as they always did) but the new boy on the block will only force in one direction (over time).

 

Natural/solar will augment/detract from the 'new boy' forcings (so folk will see what they expect from their pet natural and dismiss the scale of the helping hand that the 'new boy' has given).

 

Low solar , in 2010, aided in the blocking we saw then. N.Hemisphere blocking since shows that something larger than the solar (now at max) is at play?

[Yarmy]

Solar variance between min and max contributes at most 0.1K difference to global surface temps. As for Arctic ice loss causing the cold(ish) winter and exceptionally cold March in the NH, well I'm with Hans Von Storch on this: it would be good if someone had predicted it 10 years ago.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Solar variance between min and max contributes at most 0.1K difference to global surface temps. As for Arctic ice loss causing the cold(ish) winter and exceptionally cold March in the NH, well I'm with Hans Von Storch on this: it would be good if someone had predicted it 10 years ago.

 

Unfortunately, nobody managed to predict how quickly the ice would melt out. Even the most recent models can't capture the current decline rate. Everyone has been caught out, so there was no way its current effects could have been predicted. 10 years ago predictions for an seasonally ice free Arctic were for it to occur towards the end of the century, nowadays many think it could be before the end of this decade!

 

I wouldn't say that sea ice loss causes colder winters in general (especially not on an hemispheric level), but contributes to more regional extremes through the modification of the jet stream

[Gray-Wolf]

I would have thought that any basic understanding in what powers the jet stream would have been all you needed to see what an Arctic, warming a number of times faster than the rest of the planet, would cause (should they have found the need to look)?

 

Past instances of a 'change' to the heat/pressure profile between pole and equator must help show what can occur when the slope lessens?

[Yarmy]

I would have thought that any basic understanding in what powers the jet stream would have been all you needed to see what an Arctic, warming a number of times faster than the rest of the planet, would cause (should they have found the need to look)?

 

Past instances of a 'change' to the heat/pressure profile between pole and equator must help show what can occur when the slope lessens?

 

So why didn't anyone say the jet stream would buckle, trend southwards and flood northern Europe with cold air? And what happens next winter when the jet stream rages over Northern Scotland instead?

Hindsight makes experts of us all. 

 

(I'm in a bad mood btw after getting mugged by the linesman at Arsenal )

[Methuselah]

So why didn't anyone say the jet stream would buckle, trend southwards and flood northern Europe with cold air? And what happens next winter when the jet stream rages over Northern Scotland instead?

Hindsight makes experts of us all. 

 

(I'm in a bad mood btw after getting mugged by the linesman at Arsenal )

I think you'll find that quite a few did, Yarmy...If any stream loses energy it will buckle. But, that's not to say that any future buckling will necessarily occur at similar longitudes to what we've had to endure, of late?

 

PS: Bloody linesman!

Edited April 13, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Gray-Wolf]

If you think of a river then when young it's profile is steep and it runs straight. By the time it's old it's profile is near flat and it meanders all over the place producing ox bow cut offs and a huge flood plain over which to wander.

 

If the jet is a 'stream' then when it's profile/gradient is less it'll tend toward the old river windiness?

 

With the added issue that sluggish Jets mean inner continental high's tend to hang around and in summer be very hot (this heat extends it's influence out in the way sea ice extended it's influence out?) making the basin nearly circled with high temp land masses helping it's own 'home grown temps' to become higher and the jet slower (nasty feedback loop).

 

I believe we will lose the Polar Jet completely.

[Yarmy]

This 2005 paper predicts a (continued) polewards shift of the jet stream:

 

http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/Yin_stormtracks.pdf

 

It's not unreasonable to suggest that the 15 coupled climate models used here would have simulated the arctic ice melt we observe.

 

"The poleward shift in baroclinicity is augmented by the increased surface temperature gradient in the SH, and is partially offset by the reduced surface temperature gradient in NH winter. The poleward shift of the storm tracks tends

to be accompanied by poleward shifts in surface wind stress and precipitation, and a shift towards the high index state of the NAM and SAM. "

[Methuselah]

 

This 2005 paper predicts a (continued) polewards shift of the jet stream:

 

http://www.image.ucar.edu/idag/Papers/Yin_stormtracks.pdf

 

It's not unreasonable to suggest that the 15 coupled climate models used here would have simulated the arctic ice melt we observe.

 

"The poleward shift in baroclinicity is augmented by the increased surface temperature gradient in the SH, and is partially offset by the reduced surface temperature gradient in NH winter. The poleward shift of the storm tracks tends

to be accompanied by poleward shifts in surface wind stress and precipitation, and a shift towards the high index state of the NAM and SAM. "

 

True; but buckling does not, of itself, require any overall latitudinal shift...Not that I would know whether its mean latitude has changed...or not. Anyone?

[Gray-Wolf]

The average track of the polar jet is still moveing north (Prof Francis shows us) with the 'peaks', of the 'wave' shifting north faster than the troughs are but ,all in all, the Jet is still heading north (as are the tropic's still shifting toward the Poles).

 

All that has happened is that the 'potential difference' between the two air bodies has lessened so the 'energy flow' they create has also lessened meaning it has suddenly become very sinuous (unlike the 'wavey', high energy 'energy flow', between the two air bodies with a greater potential difference?)

 

At times windspedds in the Jet fall so low that the 'plot' of the loop falls out of sight on the plotting maps. This is what I mean about the Jet 'disappearing' over the coming months/years.So the way the flow is plotted today,once  the wind speed criterea for it 'appearing' on the plots is dropped below?

[4wd]

Good piece by Paul Homewood
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/12/english-winters-back-to-normal-julia-blames-global-warming/

"Global warming causes near average winter."

"5) In December 2010, Slingo , talking about the cold weather, told the Independent,

 â€œGlobal warming is continuing and we know that from the global trends. There will, of course, be large local and regional variations from year to year. So this event that we’re currently experiencing is not unprecedented.â€, adding â€œA final complication is that a regular pattern of natural climate change over the North Atlantic, called the multi-decadal oscillation, may be about to enter a cooler phase, just as it did in the 1960s, when Britain also experienced colder-than-normal winters.â€

[pottyprof]

But has anyone actually observed any reduction in energy coming from the sun? Or is that just expectation, at this point?

We've seen a very active sun over the 20th centuary and we've seen temperatures rise. So far this century we've seen the sun settle down for a kip and temperatures have levelled off if you use a 15 year average. If it slumbers away for too long I'd expect temperatures to drop.  There has to be some connection with energy output or it's just pure coincidence and I don't believe it's coincidence.

 

As I said earlier, Occam's razor.....  

What else can you say when presented with obvious facts like that?  

 

I do agree that the ice vanishing will have some effect on weather patterns but just the missing ice causing the effect we've seen this winter?  Nah, I just don't buy it...  unless it's part of the mechanism for the onset of the next glacial cool down?

Edited April 14, 2013 by pottyprof

[Yarmy]

We've seen a very active sun over the 20th centuary and we've seen temperatures rise. So far this century we've seen the sun settle down for a kip and temperatures have levelled off if you use a 15 year average. If it slumbers away for too long I'd expect temperatures to drop.  There has to be some connection with energy output or it's just pure coincidence and I don't believe it's coincidence.

 

As I said earlier, Occam's razor.....  

What else can you say when presented with obvious facts like that?  

 

I do agree that the ice vanishing will have some effect on weather patterns but just the missing ice causing the effect we've seen this winter?  Nah, I just don't buy it...  unless it's part of the mechanism for the onset of the next glacial cool down?

 

 

Not true based on the most recent evidence. See page 9 here:

 

http://www.leif.org/research/TSI%20(Reconstructions).pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

So what does your physics training tell you will occur when you lessen the temp/pressure gradient between two points P.P.?

 

I accept that the Sun (like all other 'natural variations') plays it's part in climate but surely you have to accept the physical evidence of the changes between pole and equator esp. post 07's Arctic ice low? With that evidence accepted what do you think this 'shift' must cause?

Edited April 14, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

My take on Occam's razor leads me to the suspicion, that the recent rapid decline in Arctic ice-extent is far more likely to cause a meandering Jet, than a minuscule (no-one seems to have actually measured it, yet?) fall in Solar insolation...

 

I'm pretty sure that, should somebody plonk an iceberg in my back garden, said garden would cool?

Edited April 14, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[Gray-Wolf]

My take on Occam's razor leads me to the suspicion, that the recent rapid decline in Arctic ice-extent is far more likely to cause a meandering Jet, than a is minuscule (no-one seems to have actually measured it, yet?) fall in Solar insolation... I'm pretty sure that, should somebody plonk an iceberg in my back garden, said garden would cool?

I have to fully agree Pete!Solar varience varies in 0. something amounts. Human/Natural reduction of TSI at the surface is currently up to 10% less (at ground level) in some regions and averages out around 6% reduction for the whole planet? Surely we should worry about Indo-China cleaning up it's act and volcanic (medium sized Eruptions falling back to average?The most obvious physical change to the planet, since 07', has been the ramp up in open water across the summer Arctic and the 'new energy' this has introduced into the system far outweighs any drop off in solar (even though ,over the period we have gone from solar min to max)so why can some folk not put this into their thinking along with solar varience?It is fine having a pet theory but surely we must remain adaptable when data insists we should? Edited April 14, 2013 by Gray-Wolf

[pottyprof]

My take on Occam's razor leads me to the suspicion, that the recent rapid decline in Arctic ice-extent is far more likely to cause a meandering Jet, than a minuscule (no-one seems to have actually measured it, yet?) fall in Solar insolation...

 

I'm pretty sure that, should somebody plonk an iceberg in my back garden, said garden would cool?

 

I agree Pete.  What I'm getting at is the fact that we have two things occurring.  Both things could potentially be the cause of it.  Both things are not understood fully.  I'm not saying that a quiet sun is the only cause because there potentially is an effect through less ice.  Why would there not potentially be this same effect from a quiet sun considering that it fits the pattern well?  Just because we don't fully understand what is happening with it or an answer isn't available doesn't make it an impossibility.

 

@GW

 

I agree with what you say GW.  I don't disagree with any of your observations or suggestions at all.  All I am saying is that when the sun went wonky and didn't play ball with the solar forecasts, some were saying that this would have an impact on the jet stream.  This would have been around 2006/2007.  So no matter what anyone says, the quiet sun fits the pattern observed.  Even if it isn't the sun causing it, it still fits the pattern.

[Gael_Force]

I agree Pete.  What I'm getting at is the fact that we have two things occurring.  Both things could potentially be the cause of it.  Both things are not understood fully.  I'm not saying that a quiet sun is the only cause because there potentially is an effect through less ice.  Why would there not potentially be this same effect from a quiet sun considering that it fits the pattern well?  Just because we don't fully understand what is happening with it or an answer isn't available doesn't make it an impossibility.

 

@GW

 

I agree with what you say GW.  I don't disagree with any of your observations or suggestions at all.  All I am saying is that when the sun went wonky and didn't play ball with the solar forecasts, some were saying that this would have an impact on the jet stream.  This would have been around 2006/2007.  So no matter what anyone says, the quiet sun fits the pattern observed.  Even if it isn't the sun causing it, it still fits the pattern.

 

A fairly recent paper here.   http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000775

 

This shows a potential long term correlation between solar cycles and atmospheric circulation over Siberia.

[pottyprof]

A fairly recent paper here.   http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113000775

 

This shows a potential long term correlation between solar cycles and atmospheric circulation over Siberia.

 

Cheers for that.  

[Gray-Wolf]

I agree P.P. , the 2010 pattern of blocking had all the hallmarks of 'H.P. predominance during soalr min' that I was told of at A' level but not since (for me).

[Gray-Wolf]

Anyone else notice different trends in our weather/forecast weather so far?

[pottyprof]

Low pressure heading off to Iceland, high pressure heading towards the UK.... Seems to be a traditional route for mid Spring. Very 70s. Let's see if things are being 'normalised' this year. Cooler temps and strong winds aren't unusual for this time of year.

[Gray-Wolf]

Saw this from Jen today;

 

http://www.wunderground.com/earth-day/2013/changing-face-of-mother-nature

[Gray-Wolf]

http://climatedesk.org/category/climate-desk-live/

 

I think 4.30pm EDT is 10.30 here? 

 

For those interested in our recent climate extremes then this should prove both interesting and informative?

[4wd]

That site says to fix climate by eating less hamburgers and buying new cars.
It seems a bit wacky.