Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[Methuselah]

If i was ever try and 'unify' all my cognitions then there would be a large area for electro magnetic influences on all aspects of things.

we know for a fact it can mess with our heads if exposed to it in the correct way and we know that if you force a current to flow that any resistance to the flow will produce heat so both our abilities to think/feel and also the planetary EMF need the addition to all the workings we use to quantify them?

With magnetic field lines amassing at the poles you'd imagine a more pronounced impact from them there? Sadly we are constantly being told that the sun is ever quieter so you'd also imagine that any impact would be lessening by now? (if it is dealing with solar winds driving current flow it would have a near instant impact surely?....you don't wait that long for your bulb to light once you throw the switch do you?)

But, can you demonstrate just how magnetic field-lines are supposed to influence climate? Wouldn't you agree that, for their 'effects' to be relevant, our modern, sensitive data-collection methods would have picked up on something by now?

I will be forever sceptical of anything in any way 'occult'...

[pottyprof]

But, can you demonstrate just how magnetic field-lines are supposed to influence climate? Wouldn't you agree that, for their 'effects' to be relevant, our modern, sensitive data-collection methods would have picked up on something by now?

I will be forever sceptical of anything in any way 'occult'...

It has to have an effect. Perhaps their influence is what we see as 'normal' so therefore we are already picking these observations up? Strong magnetic fields are a real head scrambler.

[jethro]

The Frankenstorm in Climate Context by Andrew Revkin:

http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/the-frankenstorm-in-climate-context/

[Methuselah]

It has to have an effect. Perhaps their influence is what we see as 'normal' so therefore we are already picking these observations up? Strong magnetic fields are a real head scrambler.

Does it? Surely, for a magnetic field to have any effect at all on a particle, that particle must carry an electric charge; and not many normal components of air do? And, if they ever did, those charges would need to be of predominantly one sense; a random charge-distribution would cause the overall effect sum to zero, or thereabouts?

Of course, I may be wrong???

[Gray-Wolf]

I suppose to measure any effect you need be looking for it and how would we look for the 'effect'? Would it be ionisation in the upper atmosphere or loading in the mantle?

Does the earths fluid element of the core have similar perturbations to the solar shell in terms of electromagnetic charging and does this then influence interactions with 'correctly charged incoming CME's?

None of this is anywhere near to any area of study I have undertaken but that does not mean I can dismiss the possibility of any impact on climate (however small?).

I have been accused of not incorporating all influences into our climate system (primarily by folk trying to promote things other that mans impacts) but I do try and add all into the mix with the weighting I believe they have. The only forcing that I have seen as a constant (and growing over the period of study) has been the GHG forcing? everything else has been in flux. Electromagnetism is the only thing i have not really known enough about to include but may well have also had a constant (and growing) influence as well. As J' points out we have a roving pole that has recently seen an uptick in it's travel speed. We know that we also have areas of polar reversal around the globe with the most notable in the southern ocean. Maybe , like the sun, we have our global magnetic 'flip' in it's early stages and this may well have climate impacts?

[pottyprof]

Of course, I may be wrong???

No you're not wrong. We perceive 'normal' because that's what we see/learn/understand. It's something to do with quantum theory but can't for the life of me remember but I think it has something to do with electron rotation.

[Methuselah]

I suppose to measure any effect you need be looking for it and how would we look for the 'effect'? Would it be ionisation in the upper atmosphere or loading in the mantle?

Does the earths fluid element of the core have similar perturbations to the solar shell in terms of electromagnetic charging and does this then influence interactions with 'correctly charged incoming CME's?

None of this is anywhere near to any area of study I have undertaken but that does not mean I can dismiss the possibility of any impact on climate (however small?).

I have been accused of not incorporating all influences into our climate system (primarily by folk trying to promote things other that mans impacts) but I do try and add all into the mix with the weighting I believe they have. The only forcing that I have seen as a constant (and growing over the period of study) has been the GHG forcing? everything else has been in flux. Electromagnetism is the only thing i have not really known enough about to include but may well have also had a constant (and growing) influence as well. As J' points out we have a roving pole that has recently seen an uptick in it's travel speed. We know that we also have areas of polar reversal around the globe with the most notable in the southern ocean. Maybe , like the sun, we have our global magnetic 'flip' in it's early stages and this may well have climate impacts?

My thinking on 'pole-flips' is that, as they (the pole-flips) are so clearly defined on the ocean-floor geomagnetic record, any corresponding, associated, sudden climatic-effects ought to show up in the climate records - somewhere???

[Methuselah]

No you're not wrong. We perceive 'normal' because that's what we see/learn/understand. It's something to do with quantum theory but can't for the life of me remember but I think it has something to do with electron rotation.

I was only thinking of atoms with either missing or added electrons, Potty. The effects of quantum spin are a wee bit 'out of my league'...

[BornFromTheVoid]

This one goes back to 1947. Monthly adjusted figures.

ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_RADIO/FLUX/Penticton_Adjusted/monthly/MONTHLY.ADJ

I'll try and find a UV one later.

Edit. It looks like some of the UV data sets use the 10.7 as part of a proxy. Whether it matters or not is anyone's guess I suppose? Most of the real UV data has been collected in shortish lived experiments until about 2000. I'll have another look around after some kip. There must be a usable dataset spanning a few decades somewhere.

No improvement with flux. While I knew they'd be close, the sunspots and flux correlation was 0.99, which is much higher than I thought., So the correlations with the heights turn out almost exactly the same as with sunspots.

The graph below shows how close the sunspots and flux are.

[jethro]

My thinking on 'pole-flips' is that, as they (the pole-flips) are so clearly defined on the ocean-floor geomagnetic record, any corresponding, associated, sudden climatic-effects ought to show up in the climate records - somewhere???

Have a read of this Pete, it's new (only published a couple of weeks ago)...

Here's the published paper, only abstract available, full paper behind pay wall: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12003421

More details without payment can be found here: http://planetsave.com/2012/10/17/ice-age-magnetic-reversal-was-global-event-and-linked-with-super-volcano-and-rapid-climate-variability-says-new-research/ And here: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121016084936.htm

[Methuselah]

Have a read of this Pete, it's new (only published a couple of weeks ago)...

Here's the published paper, only abstract available, full paper behind pay wall: http://www.sciencedi...012821X12003421

More details without payment can be found here: http://planetsave.co...s-new-research/ And here: http://www.scienceda...21016084936.htm

Thanks for the links, J. Very interesting indeed!

[Interitus]

Searching google scholar with the terms "geomagnetic excursion climate" provides a wealth of links e.g "Are there connections between the Earth's magnetic field and climate?" - http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/files/courtillot07epsl.pdf - examines magnetism alongside the other contributing factors of climate change.

[jethro]

Also, research Carbon 14.

I did loads of reading/digging on this subject a few years ago, there did appear to be connections to climate but I can't remember the details.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Pete! I was not looking for any 'sudden' climate flips but an extended, constant, forcing on top of the naturals to allow for all combinations of the naturals to occur at least once? If the augmentation was strong enough then we might see the natural 'rhythm' pushed beyond tipping points and instigating climate shift?

If folk are looking around for every possible novel forcing to pin our current climate shift on then I reckon we should investigate all comers?

[Methuselah]

Aye Ian, we should indeed...

Thinking about the papers J posted: it looks, to me, as if whatever internal machinations are resulting in the Earth's net magnetic field, also cause periods of mantle-crust upheaval. In other words, those 'drivers' are directly effecting both the magnetic field and increased volcanism. But, it's the volcanism that buggers the climate, not the pole-shifts?

Does that make an iota of sense?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well the earth itself is trying to 'balance itself out' with heavier elements heading to the centre and lighter to the surface so there is both 'fluid motion' (and thermal currents) in the fluid element of the metallic core and the plastic deformation of the mantle above (and it's 'plumes' dragging the continents around and fueling hot-spots) which in turn must both help produce the EMF but also alter both it's strength and polarity. As it does this those interactions must impact the mantle above and it's 'plumes' changing their speed and intensity?

Ah well ,back to staring at lava lamps and reading the chaos theory!!!

P.S. And what of period when the EMF is weakest and part through a 'reversal'? how does this impact the U.V. in the global strat and how does all that play out in influence below.

[Gray-Wolf]

Meanwhile back to Sandy and odd influences.

Didn't The NOAA comment on the abortive Nino' back in Sept saying it was the first time in their 60 odd years of monitoring that a growing Nino over summer had died in Sept? Had we continued to grow the nino the shear over the Caribbean could well have killed it off when it fell to TS levels so it would never had regained back up to cat2 or been such a bother further North?

Sorry to be so late with that but I've only just remembered/been reminded of mr Halpern's comment!

[jethro]

Just to make it absolutely clear to everyone, my interest in the magnetic field is simply that, an interest - in absolutely no way what so ever am I suggesting it is in any way responsible for the change in climate in recent decades, nor am I postulating that it is an alternative to AGW. I do however think it may have some bearing on the position of HP in the NH and perhaps an influence on the Jet Stream.

My interest stems from going down a side road whilst researching electrical forces and the human body. I have an unnerving ability to stop any watch after wearing it for a few days, I also managed to kill our Grand Father clock after only winding it 3 times - it had worked and kept perfect time for over 300 years. I used to do a lot of diving, knowing how long you've been down is pretty crucial so after killing countless watches over the years, after speaking to a pretty knowledgeable watch chappy, I invested in a TAG watch - it was guaranteed to survive whatever bizarre thing was responsible for them stopping on me. Nearly 2k and two weeks later, it stopped. Returned it to TAG, they could find no reason but speculated it was something to do with magnetism and electrical current, hence my research.

[Gray-Wolf]

I thought you'd be up on the 'plant research' on the impacts of EMF's J'? Don't cabbages signal for more light via changes in their EMF's?

[jethro]

I thought you'd be up on the 'plant research' on the impacts of EMF's J'? Don't cabbages signal for more light via changes in their EMF's?

Personally, I've never noticed any difference in plants. There's quite a lot of knowledge about Lunar planting, many folks swear by it but my experience shows there's either no visible impact, or I'm incredible stupid/short sighted not to notice.... I suppose if you're growing plants in conditions less than perfect then there may be additional benefits from outside influence but I'm the kind of gardener who sticks to plants which are suitable for the available conditions. I've never seen the sense in struggling to grow an acid lover in Alkaline soil or vice versa, there's so many plants to choose from, pick one which suits your garden - why make life difficult for yourself?

[BornFromTheVoid]

In-case anyone hasn't noticed, Glacier Point's preliminary winter thoughts here, with discussion on sea ice from about 16:30 minutes on.

Here's a related post I did on correlating sea ice and winter CET

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2376807

[Gray-Wolf]

I might be going bonkers here but if we see ENSO drop into Nina territory over winter might it also start to appear to be tied in with the 'odd synoptics' albedo flip and ice loss are driving?

If we see Nina territory winters and Nino territory summers (with winters showing strong Nina's when it should be a nina phase and summers showing strong nino's if it is within a nino phase) then I will have to wonder as to the impacts on the circulation patterns that help form the different phases of the events (such as the wind reversals that help Nino's form)?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/13/italy-struggles-floods-fears-farming-future

Just AGW or a combination of odd atmospheric behaviours and warming?

[jethro]

Call me an old cynic, but I can't help but wonder on the insurance issues. Most insurance policies have an opt out clause covered by 'Act of God', whereby some disasters can happen and the insurance company doesn't have to pay out. In addition to this, it is increasingly costly/prohibitive to get insurance for flood damage if you live in an area prone to flooding. With the modern malaise of everything can be blamed on someone else, damages and compensation can be claimed from numerous directions, I'm wondering if labelling lots of weather events as a result of climate change is an effort to shift the repair cost onto someone else's shoulders/get out of paying out millions in insurance claims.

[laserguy]

Call me an old cynic.....With the modern malaise of everything can be blamed on someone else.........

J you're an old cynic... but that makes at least two of us. I'm waiting for the day when farmers and growers anywhere start blaming climate change and demanding action etc in years of plenty.