Arctic Ice: How Does It Influence Our Weather?

[Rainy]

If you look at June mslp at Lerwick over the past 40 years it has shown a slight decrease, while that for Reykjavik has had a larger increase. In isolation these changes are not statistically significant according to data at the European Climate Assessment & Dataset project (ECAD) but taken together their trends suggests a noticeable change in low pressure tracks towards the UK.

Sorry to be dim --- but what is mslp?

[Methuselah]

Sorry to be dim --- but what is mslp?

Mean Sea-Level Pressure...

[BornFromTheVoid]

It was "nice" in the 70s Loafer.

Thanks BFTV.

Will this do?

Cheers.

Here's the May-July mean sea ice extent detrended and inverted, and the summer (June-Aug) rainfall. If there was a strong relationship, it should show up, and the sea ice being 1 month behind might allow for a slight lag in it's effects.

Pretty much no correlation.

Might try a few other combinations and seasons if I find the time

[Gael_Force]

Have you looked at the correlation with lower solar activity. I noticed Kevin's list of record rainfall summers had some from past minimum periods.

Certainly quite a steep rise over the past few summers.

Data from this site.

http://www.centralen...uk/hotcold.html

[Rainy]

Thanks folks.

"Pretty much no correlation.

Might try a few other combinations and seasons if I find the time "

Thanks for trying BFTV. . Maybe adding in Aug and Sept might be interesting. Could even take out May, as it "tends" to be dry and cold. Summer doesn't wake up here till late June and goes on till well into Oct. It's our summer correlation with the warmed Arctic I was wondering about, particularly when at max melt.

"Have you looked at the correlation with lower solar activity. I noticed Kevin's list of record rainfall summers had some from past minimum periods.".

Will do Gael Force. I wonder what station(s) the data is based on? In this region there have been very difficult wet spells in mid 1950s, the 1980s and since 2000. Was wondering about solar influence.

These NW uplands get a real drenching nowadays. And such little heat, sunshine and evaporation the last 2 "summers".

"Red months". Gray Wolf. Bring em on! Fondly remembering 1995 and 1996. I wish I shared your optimism. Can't see how to progress in this endlessly sodden situation. Next week looks grim.

[Gray-Wolf]

Ha, Ha! Day after tomorrow on film 4. Manhattan island cut off due to storm surge....flooded tunnels and bridges closed.... couldn't make it up could you?

[Gray-Wolf]

One mans experience of what the summers ice melt meant to his part of the world;

By Arthur C. Smith III (Kaktovik, Alaska, 99747)

on November 20th, 2012

I’m glad to see in print, the report of what we have experienced up here and how significantly these details relate to a changing climate.

I live in Kaktovik, Alaska, which is on a small island in the Beaufort Sea, approximately 350 miles to the east of Barrow.

I believe for the first time in human history, the entire north coast of Alaska was ice free on November 1st; the Arctic Ocean was open and had reached a new record minimum for that date.

The world cannot underestimate the impact upon climate presented by such a large, newly opened body of water. Personally, I believe that the 2012 record Arctic sea ice minimum has crossed a threshold: the “tipping point†has been reached. The change in weather speaks to it, the change in animal behavior speaks to it, life in the arctic screams it… but will we listen?

Here in the Arctic, there is no choice but to listen, to see that daily life is changing in real time. I have lived here only nine years but in that short period of time, the change that I’ve witnessed is profound, to put it mildly.

Speaking of mildly, just to clarify the relative nature of the reader’s interpretation of the word “mild†being used to describe the start of the Alaskan Arctic winter. It is true that we’ve had a record warm September, warmer than normal temperatures in October and November, but the mitigation of temperature by open water has paled in the face of raging blizzards, one after another, week upon week, winds blowing in the 50’s mph for days upon days, gusts in the 70’s, record snowfall, aviation grounded, life at a standstill. Only here, can this scenario pass as quasi normal and equally pass unnoticed by the outside world. Anywhere in the lower 48, these conditions would merit national news coverage and likely some emergency relief.

But… the water is warmer, it is open. The air temperatures are warmer and the resultant increase in atmospheric energy has defined a fall, here in this part of the world, that no man living has ever seen; that no recorded history has ever documented. If not already on notice due the course of world climate events, be assured that the current exception of the Arctic experiencing “what no man has ever seen†will soon be shared by all man.

Arthur C. Smith III

Taken from the comments from here;

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/as-sea-ice-declines-winter-shifts-in-northern-alaska-15266

[Gray-Wolf]

From what I'm hearing the Fall AGU will have further updates to the ice loss/Jet migration studies which will confirm that the impacts we have been seeing of a slower, more sinuous polar Jet, as a result of ice loss.

Looks like we will be seeing a lot of worrying confirmations, as the first sweep of this years data is discussed, over the next couple of weeks?

[jethro]

From what I'm hearing the Fall AGU will have further updates to the ice loss/Jet migration studies which will confirm that the impacts we have been seeing of a slower, more sinuous polar Jet, as a result of ice loss.

Looks like we will be seeing a lot of worrying confirmations, as the first sweep of this years data is discussed, over the next couple of weeks?

Is there any info on how they have managed to distinguish between this signature and the same signature caused by a quiet Sun?

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm sure, as with last years presentations (for those who watched via UTube) the data will be transparent and every effort will be made to make the info accessable to anyone with a bit of nous?

Edited December 3, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[laserguy]

What does "excessable" mean - prone to going over the top? Anyways,just checked my email and got a 'junk' item from Greenpeace titled "Save The Arctic". WTF??

[jethro]

I'm sure, as with last years presentations (for those who watched via UTube) the data will be transparent and every effort will be made to make the info excessable to anyone with a bit of nous?

So is that a yes or a no? Can they separate the signal caused by a quiet Sun from the signal caused by less ice? Both can lead to a meandering, southerly jet stream.

As for nous...time is in short supply, what with Christmas coming and my annual deck the halls with boughs of Holly mission, knee deep in evergreens and Mistletoe here.

[Gray-Wolf]

As far as I understand the science the scale of forcings , when compared to our human forcings, from a quiet sun are negligable? If we are looking at a current reduction of solar energy from particulate pollution (and the brightening of cloud tops due to it's impacts on raindrop size) of between 5 and 8% then the reductions in solar we have measured and have proxy mesures for are miniscule by comparison?

That is before we look at the alterations in albedo over the areas science is noting as 'crux' in the polar Jets recent odd behaviours?

I still do not see reason to look beyond the most obvious cause for the jets behaviour esp. when the time span of re-evaluation of atmospheric data runs through a couple of solar cycles?

Don't get me wrong I have no issue with low solar impacting European blocking, I think the combination of that and ice loss brought us the winter we will all remember in 2010 but I think the changes will have moved on (intensified) prior to the next solar min however extended it might be and that Asian pollution levels will also be dropping offsetting any reduction in the suns energy by our ability to accept that energy? However perverse we may see a steady uptick in incoming solar energy over the next min if the Asian pollution is an issue that is rapidly addressed?

[jethro]

The Sun's impact upon the jet stream has nothing to do with TSI, the energy from the Sun is not the issue, nor is albedo or pollution. A quiet Sun causes the jet stream to head further South and meander due to the changes in UV. This behaviour is the same behaviour which is being blamed on the lower ice levels - how are the two causes separated, how is it possible to ascribe the Southerly tracking jet stream to one cause or the other? Your assertion of not needing to look beyond the most obvious causes is nothing more than your own confirmation bias, it has no relevance to the science. Currently, we're approaching Solar max but this max is so quiet, as has been the entire cycle thus far, it's hardly worth calling a max at all. The Sun is very quiet and expected to remain so for the foreseeable future (this cycle and beyond to the next, and possibly the one after that).

Mike Lockwood has shown the quiet Sun has a direct impact on the jet stream, it is supported by the weather archives from official sources. It is this mechanism which is believed to have been the major player in The Little Ice Age in the NH. It's unfortunate timing that the Sun decides to go quiet at the same time as we have lower ice levels, it makes it nigh on impossible to distinguish the major player in the jet stream changes. I'm just wondering if any progress has been made on this issue?

[4wd]

Most of the events being touted as made worse or caused by reduced ice or warming could equally well be ascribed to recent cooling.

If warming causes instability and 'worse than we thought' weather, wouldn't that have been most evident in the late 90s when we had an indisputably warm year or two?

The last ten years have actually cooled slightly.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2012/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2012/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2012/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2012/trend

[Gray-Wolf]

But we see an increase in ultra violet in the trop over the past 30 years?

This increase is unrelated to solar output but is tied to AGW forced cooling of the strat and CFC impacts? Though we might have got a handle on CFC's the destruction of ozone via low temps is set to increase as global AGW forcings increase?

Is this not part of the worry? The minor changes that the sun throws at us are now being replaced by the major impacts our atmospheric experiment brings. We stand to see TSI increase by a number of percent even with solat output of TSI falling off due to the shielding we have placed over our heads being removed. The same for ozone destruction due to lower temps in the lower strat driven by our AGW forcings.

It appears akin to standing under a brolly and saying you will not get wet once you put it down when all of the science and data collected tells you it is Ho hum$ing down?

In the same way that the collapse of the Arctic was rapid the reumption of warming , via increased TSI reaching the surface, will be just like a tap being turned on. Even with such a shield have we seen temps fall away to 1800's values or are they still coming in at top ten temps? What will occur once we start getting even 1% more TSI at the surface?

Edited December 3, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-12/28/content_16066515.htm

Seems China think the sea ice is impacting their weather?

[Methuselah]

http://www.chinadail...nt_16066515.htm

Seems China think the sea ice is impacting their weather?

It's hard to see how it wouldn't, Ian...Anyone who's ever put a cup full of boiling water into the fridge ought to be able to see that? Whatever the source, the excess energy has to go somewhere...

[Gray-Wolf]

This is the worry for me Pete, so many folk here seem to feel we have the liesure of time to decide if , or if not, the changes are already with us. Content, it would appear, to look at the extremes we are seeing and place them in the class of 'ordinary weather extremes' which we have always had to deal with without taking the context of their frequency, repeat occrunce over short time spans, and record breaking nature into consideration?

If we look at each event in isolation we may find a historical 'match' but all together and across continents? Even if we did not know of low arctic ice, and the threats climate shift promises, would we not look at the scale of recent events and extremes in climate and wonder what was going on?

If we see Arctic ice fall to the low levels of 2012 again in 2013 what kind of a summer are we wise to expect? Will we see a flip back to 'normal' patterns or are the growing extremes to become even worse?

Two floods and a massive funnel cloud for me (from my back door) so what will I witness this time around?

[Methuselah]

I'm less than hopeful, Ian...What I do expect, however, is x-years' 'recovery', lasting until the next ice-minimum; pretty-much in keeping with events following the previous crash...In every year, barring the actual minima-years themselves, it seems, we are said to be in a state of 'recovery'...

Pathetic really?

[4wd]

A problem with all that is you make it sound as if open water is a new permanent feature, whereas in reality there are a few weeks in September with significantly less ice.

How this is supposed to make floods at your backdoor in July is beyond sensibly linky linky IMO.

[Gray-Wolf]

C'mon Four!

Open water is the worse case scenario but as you have just read we end up placing energy into the ocean once the ice is thin enough to let the energy through. With key areas now not even coming out of winter with thick enough ice to block the energy we have to accept that we have the potential to absorb lots of energy when the Arctic sun is highest.

Not only is this energy 'absorbed' but it negates the need for any energy from the south to be used up over the cold wastes. Eventually, courtesy of the 24hr heat source, certain polar shelf seas will be warmer than the north sea after mid summer. We all wondered at the McKensie river anom this past summer? What if we see it again this summer? Will it still be faulty sensors?

The Arctic used to be 'The Cooler' for the N.Hemisphere. How many times over the past few years has Northern Canada/Greenland/Siberia enjoyed higher temps than here in the UK? I saw a snippet from Greenland the other day. In 1970 there were some of the population there who had never experienced rain. Now every child on Greenland has had first hand experience of rain. That is not just a state change but also a flooding of moisture into a once barren landscape (open water and warm air masses boosting the relative Humidity).

I don't know Pete? Post the 07' event we still had large ,old ice across the basin. Some of the 'recovery' was the loss of this massive ice. Since 2010 we have had just young ice (under 5yrs) and it is thin. Post the 2012 event will we see a state where we never go above the 07'event min? (post 07' years never went above the previous low record) no matter the weather?

Imagine that? a min that took a perfect storm to arrive at when we still had some thick ice becomes an unreachable max now we have thin ,salty ice???

We know that all of the NW Passage deep channel was first year ice last summer, some folk say the ice was 3m thick? (from the models they used) but it was gone by Aug. what of a basin full of sub 2m ice? what of a basin that spawned GAC12 because of the temp difference between early Aug ocean and ice edge temps?

I really wonder if we will indeed see a faux recovery next melt Pete, I'm beginning to doubt that we will. It may well be Ball park 2012 or much,much less. Average weather across the basin brought us last summer, what of a warm summer? an above average? With the surrounding land masses ever more thawed and albedo dropping away year on year will continental warmth add into the melt even more this year?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The difference between the mean monthly extents of the first 10 years recorded and 2012

June -1.49 million km2

July -2.4 million km2

August -3.06 million km2

September -3.63 million km2

That June loss alone is over 6 times the land area of the UK.

Combined with the rapidly declining summer snow cover

June

July

August

All together, I think the linking of these changes to altered weather patterns in mid-latitudes seems plausible at least. The changes we're seeing in the summer months with snow and ice cover are far from minor.

[Methuselah]

Hence my use of quotation marks, Ian...An annual net increase of one square inch would be hailed a 'recovery, by some! And, what's up with that? you may ask...

[jethro]

What does it matter what anyone thinks? I appreciate that I may be alone in this view, but I'm bored with the tit for tat stuff between folk - some dismissing, some aiming to convert and some getting more than a tad tetchy because others don't agree with them. What matters IMO is how we all move forward from here. Whether or not droughts, floods or extreme weather can be attributed to climate change is kind of irrelevant. The simple facts are, there are more of us on this planet than at any other time and we're running out of space and resources. Regardless of cause, we need to protect homes and agricultural land from floods and insulate them from drought. Wouldn't it make more sense to agree to disagree on the cause but unite in finding solutions to existing/potential problems?