Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[AderynCoch]

Penzance got a lot of snow in January 1987.

[SnowObsessor90]

Whatever the GFS is predicting over the next few weeks has no bearing on what may happen over this coming winter. Look at November 1981 as an example because this was a generally mild, unsettled month prior to the bitter cold spell in Dec.

True, have been cases where the Vortex hasn't been allowed to build too far ahead of steam which has still allowed early cold spells to develop, there have been many others where it has though like last year for instance, either way we'll see soon enough.

Edited October 1, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Aaron]

The Scilly Isles will get no snow this winter.

[Weather-history]

A NEly blast with heavy snow showers blowing in and developing

[KTtom]

Heres the latest Richard Crabtree forecast

Could be snowmeggedon according to him

http://www.cloudyski...3078383d9d53dd6

Well its a good read and gets the imagination working overtme, which is all you can expect from a winter forecast this far out.....its worth reading his thread, this guy has some wacky ideas!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I did PM you a while back , pointing out we were within a mile of each other.I was in Essex during 2009-2011 and did 'OK' out of those, but if i'm honest I remember much , much snowier scenarios leaving Barnfields or Walton High (I'm sure you know what I mean).Des.

I had lots of snow when I was at Walton high!!,

[snowy weather]

Brian gaze from the weather outlook has released his ideas about the winter. He says their is a higher probability of a wArmer than average winter but if he had to make a call he would go for a colder than average winter. So a complete waste of time reading his whole forecast.

[Polar Maritime]

Brian gaze from the weather outlook has released his ideas about the winter. He says their is a higher probability of a wArmer than average winter but if he had to make a call he would go for a colder than average winter. So a complete waste of time reading his whole forecast.

As are any at this stage, with 2 months until winter.

[Backtrack]

Brian gaze from the weather outlook has released his ideas about the winter. He says their is a higher probability of a wArmer than average winter but if he had to make a call he would go for a colder than average winter. So a complete waste of time reading his whole forecast.

In other words, he doesn't know.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Brian is usually wrong to be fair.

Higher chance of a warmer than average, but he would go for colder??

I am going for average!

[Backtrack]

Brian is usually wrong to be fair.

Higher chance of a warmer than average, but he would go for colder??

I am going for average!

That's like saying; Hmm, all of my scientific research & detailed model & teleconnective analysis point towards a warmer than average winter, but I'll go against them because my brain thinks it will be cold.

That's probably why he's always wrong.

[liam79]

With all due respect that Is not what Brian said. He says that there is a reasonable chance. Of a milder than average winter but the chances of a average or colder winter is slightly higher.

[Methuselah]

Brian is usually wrong to be fair.

Higher chance of a warmer than average, but he would go for colder??

I am going for average!

And so are most of us?

[AWD]

To quote, here is what Brian Gaze says;

If you’ve Googled around to look for winter weather forecasts you’ll have probably encountered a blizzard of acronyms and discussions on the topic. QBO, ENSO, SSTs, NAO, AO, SSW are a few which spring to mind. You’ll also see find discussions about arctic sea ice, and how the record melt levels could affect winter weather patterns, as well as current snow cover in Asia, and solar activity. Two of the most fashionable are probably stratospheric warming and arctic sea ice cover, both in the top 5 this year I expect, and to be fair research has indicated a link between warmer stratospheric temperatures and northern blocking, which is the pattern that often leads to colder winters in western Europe. In previous years the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was widely held up as a key indicator, with attempts being made to forecast how it would develop over the winter months by looking at sea surface temperatures. There’s always something that grabs the attention whether it’s one of the ones I’ve listed or something more esoteric such as the early arrival of Waxwings. All good stuff, but to cut to the chase my view is that for various reasons (e.g. it’s difficult to forecast them, or the link between how they develop and the winter that follows isn’t well understood) none of these provide the key to making a winter forecast in late September. Other considerations which I think are useful are background signals such as recent seasons (e.g. cold winters tend to be clustered) and months (e.g. a cool and wet September could be more likely to be followed by a colder winter), and seasonal forecast models provided by forecasting and research agencies around the globe. Taking all these factors into account, here is my initial winter statement – It’s too early to provide a forecast for winter 2012 – 13. At the moment I think there’s a reasonably good chance of a milder than average winter, but if I was forced to make a call I would say the probability of the winter falling into the average or cold category is slightly higher, but I’ll revist things at the end of October and then again in late November when issuing the winter forecast.

Edited October 1, 2012 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

Hot off the press, this could well be worth a read.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/stratospheric-conditions-winter-weather-analysis-information/

[Radiating Dendrite]

And so are most of us?

I was not saying that we are not.

I do not manage a large internet weather forum/website though.

My opinion is not read by 1000s of people daily.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

Hot off the press, this could well be worth a read.

http://matthugo.word...is-information/

Thanks for posting, this was very interesting and explained in a way that didn't blow my mind with all the techno-babble

It will be interesting to see how this pans out and whilst there are many other factors at play, the Stratosphere does seem to be very key to the type of weather we get here in the UK over winter and probably in general. Can anyone explain why it flips i.e. some years there is high pressure to the north, other years low pressure to the south etc?

[Don]

Brian is usually wrong to be fair.

I disagree with this. Obviously like all forecasters he gets it wrong sometimes but I have been following TWO's forecasts for ten years and in my opinion he doesn't have a bad track record.

[Methuselah]

I was not saying that we are not.

I do not manage a large internet weather forum/website though.

My opinion is not read by 1000s of people daily.

Neither do I, RD...But so what? Does running one require one to be a clairvoyant? Piers Corbyn's been making money for years!

[Trickster]

To quote, here is what Brian Gaze says;

If you’ve Googled around to look for winter weather forecasts you’ll have probably encountered a blizzard of acronyms and discussions on the topic. QBO, ENSO, SSTs, NAO, AO, SSW are a few which spring to mind. You’ll also see find discussions about arctic sea ice, and how the record melt levels could affect winter weather patterns, as well as current snow cover in Asia, and solar activity. Two of the most fashionable are probably stratospheric warming and arctic sea ice cover, both in the top 5 this year I expect, and to be fair research has indicated a link between warmer stratospheric temperatures and northern blocking, which is the pattern that often leads to colder winters in western Europe. In previous years the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was widely held up as a key indicator, with attempts being made to forecast how it would develop over the winter months by looking at sea surface temperatures. There’s always something that grabs the attention whether it’s one of the ones I’ve listed or something more esoteric such as the early arrival of Waxwings. All good stuff, but to cut to the chase my view is that for various reasons (e.g. it’s difficult to forecast them, or the link between how they develop and the winter that follows isn’t well understood) none of these provide the key to making a winter forecast in late September. Other considerations which I think are useful are background signals such as recent seasons (e.g. cold winters tend to be clustered) and months (e.g. a cool and wet September could be more likely to be followed by a colder winter), and seasonal forecast models provided by forecasting and research agencies around the globe. Taking all these factors into account, here is my initial winter statement – It’s too early to provide a forecast for winter 2012 – 13. At the moment I think there’s a reasonably good chance of a milder than average winter, but if I was forced to make a call I would say the probability of the winter falling into the average or cold category is slightly higher, but I’ll revist things at the end of October and then again in late November when issuing the winter forecast.

Isn't that just saying 'One the one hand it could be cold but on the other hand it could be mild?

[kate1]

My impression of Brian Gaze is that he is (quite rightly) super-cautious when it comes to making a LRF. Coming from him, this is virtually a cold ramp!

Edited October 1, 2012 by kate1

[bluearmy]

Isn't that just saying 'One the one hand it could be cold but on the other hand it could be mild?

or average. anyone saying anything different on the 1st october is surely just guessing ???? (informed guess at best)

[TEITS]

You know I personally feel we should discuss previous winters on this thread rather than the coming winter. This is because its too early for anyone to make a forecast. Maybe in another 4 weeks time should we return to discussing this coming winter.

[Liam J]

Hot off the press, this could well be worth a read.

http://matthugo.word...is-information/

Great link, Just enough to give a basic insight into how stratospheric temperatures can affect the weather on the ground.

[johnholmes]

yes agreed with that. Just one thing Matt did not show and that was the 30mb temperatures in Nov-Dec 2011 to go with the one he showed in 2010. I think it should help newcomers to this 'black art' to see how it is fairly different to that for 2011?

I'll go look see if its around

next time before I open my big mouth I'll look more closely at a link!

He does of course show both-sorry folks and it does indicate the fairly marked difference in the 30mb temperature between the two years-thanks Matt and GLTW for the link.

This thread is hopefully again going to be one free of anything other than good posts with links and explanations as per last year.

I recommend it to any visitor or new member of Net Weather.

I can but hope-tongue in cheek and perhaps a migration to the excellent thread from chio might be the place to be?

Edited October 1, 2012 by johnholmes