Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[cheeky_monkey]

As predicted it is snowing here this morning..not a surprise but disappointing none the less

[Radiating Dendrite]

As predicted it is snowing here this morning..not a surprise but disappointing none the less

Any pics?

[Glacier Point]

Following on from our Arctic discussions, as every day passes, the CFS becomes more enthusiastic for a blocked signal up noth. Quite significant trough signal over the UK.

[phil nw.]

Some really interesting stuff being posted on this thread-thanks to all.

I was just digging around trying to find changes since the 80`s wrt to our oceans now we have less ice over the Arctic.

I asked to see the mean SST`s for Winter for the 80`s and then for the 00`s hereare the images

No real change around the Tropics but if we look at the sea temps. approaching the UK and NW Europe from across the mid-Atlantic we can see the area in a cooler band of SST`s.in the last decade.

Are we seeing a less effective North Atlantic Drift and could this could be related to greater ice melt ?

In recent years we have seen the jetstream on a more southerly path and i am wondering if the apparent change in SST`s have moved the thermal gradient further south.

Another piece of the jigsaw which may affect our Hemispheric patterns?

I should add i am just throwing this out there.I don`t pretend to have any answers.

[cheeky_monkey]

Some really interesting stuff being posted on this thread-thanks to all.

I was just digging around trying to find changes since the 80`s wrt to our oceans now we have less ice over the Arctic.

I asked to see the mean SST`s for Winter for the 80`s and then for the 00`s hereare the images

No real change around the Tropics but if we look at the sea temps. approaching the UK and NW Europe from across the mid-Atlantic we can see the area in a cooler band of SST`s.in the last decade.

Are we seeing a less effective North Atlantic Drift and could this could be related to greater ice melt ?

In recent years we have seen the jetstream on a more southerly path and i am wondering if the apparent change in SST`s have moved the thermal gradient further south.

Another piece of the jigsaw which may affect our Hemispheric patterns?

I should add i am just throwing this out there.I don`t pretend to have any answers.

not sure that's right..if you look at the scale at the bottom they have moved everything up by 5c so i would say the no real change to North Atlantic SSTs but a marked increase in the temp profile in the arctic

[phil nw.]

not sure that's right..if you look at the scale at the bottom they have moved everything up by 5c so i would say the no real change to North Atlantic SSTs but a marked increase in the temp profile in the arctic

Well what a thing to do CM-i think you`re right-it keeps that area around the same temperature in the 10-15C band?

I thought i was on to something then -oh well back to the drawing board -and thanks for pointing that out.

[loadsa]

Be afraid of what you wish for

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/ancient_earth/Snowball_Earth#p00cgyb3

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Agreed GP; it's no more than another piece in an already highly complex puzzle...But it's always going to be in the background, from now on... Especially when considering the fact that the (expected by some) Solar Cycle-induced sea-ice recovery now looks to be even further from happening?

Just look at the bottom of the planet, record ice levels? Balance pleaseBFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well what a thing to do CM-i think you`re right-it keeps that area around the same temperature in the 10-15C band?

I thought i was on to something then -oh well back to the drawing board -and thanks for pointing that out.

No you may still be onto something. Previously it was in 10-20 band as the area covered 10c not the reduced 5 c banding. It may still have been towards the higher end of the scale?BFTP

[Methuselah]

Just look at the bottom of the planet, record ice levels? Balance pleaseBFTP

Add the loss/gain at both ends and see what you're left with? Balance please, Fred...And, btw, it's a fair guess that the state of the Arctic will have a more immediate effect on Eurasian weather-patterns, is it not?

And that claims of a 'recovery' have always been concentrated on the Arctic!

[bobbydog]

Add the loss/gain at both ends and see what you're left with? Balance please, Fred...And, btw, it's a fair guess that the state of the Arctic will have a more immediate effect on Eurasian weather-patterns, is it not?

And that claims of a 'recovery' have always been concentrated on the Arctic!

i see both your points. - arctic melts, antarctic freezes. is this a natural cycle of shifting weather patterns? if the total ice cover at both poles continues to decline overall, there are those who claim 'natural warming', others who claim 'man-made global warming'. maybe its both. i think it will take many years to find out if this a continuing trend. i also think we will all be dead and buried before anyone comes close to proving or disproving it either way.

[Cloud 10]

i see both your points. - arctic melts, antarctic freezes. is this a natural cycle of shifting weather patterns? if the total ice cover at both poles continues to decline overall, there are those who claim 'natural warming', others who claim 'man-made global warming'. maybe its both. i think it will take many years to find out if this a continuing trend. i also think we will all be dead and buried before anyone comes close to proving or disproving it either way.

Hopefully we will have had some more cracking winter's before then though.

[Cloud 10]

Following on from our Arctic discussions, as every day passes, the CFS becomes more enthusiastic for a blocked signal up noth. Quite significant trough signal over the UK.

The CFS European precip forecasts are screaming northern blocking.

precip anomalies

A nice example on christmas day!

Edited October 3, 2012 by Cloud 10

[jy]

Many old wives tales give pointers to Winter,birds, berries ect a new one being a friend sea fishing and catching a codling in the Solent in September,it seems way early so who knows.However, to me,its the Netweather forum that leads the way,once we start seeing the old chestnuts,Close but no cigar,the form horse,set in stone,if this verifies its 1963 over again,retrogression to Greenland and of course the annual dispensing of Prozac by Nick Sussex,then you know that Winter is upon us.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Add the loss/gain at both ends and see what you're left with?<em>

I'm just waiting for the Earth's axis to change....at this rate we'll be 'upright' soon......:-))BFTP

[feb1991blizzard]

The CFS European precip forecasts are screaming northern blocking.

precip anomalies

A nice example on christmas day!

Belter!!! you seen what follows after from the North as well as the high heights become confined to GL, that period for Xmas would make for the best Xmas period of weather i have ever experienced.

[Harve]

Just look at the bottom of the planet, record ice levels? Balance pleaseBFTP

Simply statistically speaking, the Arctic ice extent's record lows are more significant than the Antarctic ice's record: the Arctic broke its own all-time record at least 20 times at the end of this summer / early September, not to mention that every day since the start of August has been a date record (http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm). The Antarctic broke its date record on just a few days.

This is without even mentioning that the Arctic's ice is far more significant for the British Isles, or that the Arctic's ice is traditionally far more stable (the Antarctic generally comes close to completely melting out in the Southern Hemisphere's summer), or that the summer minimum extent is far more important in terms of ice albedo...

While the Arctic smashing its records may be parallelled with the Antarctic breaking record highs, there is no 'global equilibrium' between Arctic and Antarctic ice. Ice extent is below average globally.

[Cloud 10]

Belter!!! you seen what follows after from the North as well as the high heights become confined to GL, that period for Xmas would make for the best Xmas period of weather i have ever experienced.

I have now!

..........

[Methuselah]

I'm just waiting for the Earth's axis to change....at this rate we'll be 'upright' soon......:-))BFTP

Come on Fred, it's simple addition: What's the resulting balance, if you add the respective losses and gains of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents? In other words, is there any evidence supporting the contention, that the Solar Min (who can deny that some kind of minimum is occurring?) has caused a net increase in global, oceanic ice-cover?

Clearly, there must be something-else in play here...CO₂?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Simply statistically speaking, the Arctic ice extent's record lows are more significant than the Antarctic ice's record: the Arctic broke its own all-time record at least 20 times at the end of this summer / early September, not to mention that every day since the start of August has been a date record (http://www.ijis.iarc...aice_extent.htm). The Antarctic broke its date record on just a few days.

This is without even mentioning that the Arctic's ice is far more significant for the British Isles, or that the Arctic's ice is traditionally far more stable (the Antarctic generally comes close to completely melting out in the Southern Hemisphere's summer), or that the summer minimum extent is far more important in terms of ice albedo...

While the Arctic smashing its records may be parallelled with the Antarctic breaking record highs, there is no 'global equilibrium' between Arctic and Antarctic ice. Ice extent is below average globally.

We're veering off topic.....below average? What's average? Sorry that's no argument.Anyway again there is no proof yet of causal link with ice extent/amount to the jetstream or winters. Lots more still to be studied and proved, if there is a link then IMO we'll be mild early and gradually get cold in Feb and have a thoroughly cold March.

BFTP

Come on Fred, it's simple addition: What's the resulting balance, if you add the respective losses and gains of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extents? In other words, is there any evidence supporting the contention, that the Solar Min (who can deny that some kind of minimum is occurring?) has caused a net increase in global, oceanic ice-cover?

Clearly, there must be something-else in play here...CO₂?

It was a joke.....let's get back on topic

BFTP

Edited October 3, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Lynxus]

Guys , I only came in to let you all know that a fresh batch of ramps have been ordered this year. I fear that with the early ramp usage will cause a mass ramp shortage later in the season

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

Guys , I only came in to let you all know that a fresh batch of ramps have been ordered this year. I fear that with the early ramp usage will cause a mass ramp shortage later in the season

I heard that this winter the higher temps will be -23c.

[Gavin Hannah]

I heard that this winter the higher temps will be -23c.

Thats about average for Altnahara.! A repeat of the -15 to -20 locally would be awesome.!

On a side note, does everyone else agree that the range of temps that the human body can endure is quite remarkable? From the blinding desert heat of 50+ C to the quite chilly -50+ C in the Antarctic.....

Edited October 3, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[picog]

I have now!

..........

Is that the polar vortex setting up home over the UK?

[Nights King]

Thats about average for Altnahara.! A repeat of the -15 to -20 locally would be awesome.!

On a side note, does everyone else agree that the range of temps that the human body can endure is quite remarkable? From the blinding desert heat of 50+ C to the quite chilly -50+ C in the Antarctic.....

Yes and no.. The human body itself probably can't deal with those extremes however our ability to adapt to different climates using clothing etc is. I wonder how long one would last in +50c or -50c naked??