Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[Karl83]

air temp at 18000 feet?

850hpa is roughly 1 mile.

[SnowObsessor90]

As has been touched before one thing really hope don't start hearing from the more knowledgeable folk in here as we get nearer the time is something along the lines of 'Nothing in the way of real cold expected until later in the winter'

I'm just not sure I'll be able to take just seeing nothing but mild mush with a strong vortex centered over Greenland week after week in the model output again like last year.

[johnholmes]

850mb is as has been posted by one poster above approximately 5000ft, where anyone gets 18000ft from I have no idea!

[summer blizzard]

Thats about average for Altnahara.! A repeat of the -15 to -20 locally would be awesome.!

On a side note, does everyone else agree that the range of temps that the human body can endure is quite remarkable? From the blinding desert heat of 50+ C to the quite chilly -50+ C in the Antarctic.....

You would'nt last long long in either naked and unless you melt the ice you'd be dead from both quite quickly.

[weatherobsuk]

With the Grimsvotn, Eyjafjallajokull, and Nabro eruptions pluming materials into the stratosphere the past two years I'm expecting to see another severe winter season akin to 09/10 in combination with a now-annual SSW event around February early March. A little my own personal opinion but also going off historical texts from similar past-eruptions in history which have always precendented severe winter and famines within Europe.

[gottolovethisweather]

The -5 850 isotherm is basically a measure of the temperature at the 850hpa level (around 1500m ASL).

It can lead to sea level snowfall, but given the month, I would expect nothing more than a little snow in Scotland on the higher ground.

In saying that, what were the temperatures or 850hpa profiles back on late October 2008? Because, that situation even brought temporary snowfall to parts of Southern England. Anybody got any charts over that timescale?

Ok, a rather extreme and rare event, however our climate is becoming rather extreme in nature and such events are just as likely to happen again, IMO.

Edited October 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[summer blizzard]

With the Grimsvotn, Eyjafjallajokull, and Nabro eruptions pluming materials into the stratosphere the past two years I'm expecting to see another severe winter season akin to 09/10 in combination with a now-annual SSW event around February early March. A little my own personal opinion but also going off historical texts from similar past-eruptions in history which have always precendented severe winter and famines within Europe.

None of those released anything like the SO2 required to affect anything more than the local climate.

To have a hemispheric effect your looking at the average S02 released from a VEI6 eruption.

[gottolovethisweather]

As has been touched before one thing really hope don't start hearing from the more knowledgeable folk in here as we get nearer the time is something along the lines of 'Nothing in the way of real cold expected until later in the winter'

I'm just not sure I'll be able to take just seeing nothing but mild mush with a strong vortex centered over Greenland week after week in the model output again like last year.

I put up with that over many of the years druing the 90s and early naughties. Mind you, I did get my snow fix when visiting higher elevations, locally.

Edited October 4, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Eskimo]

Hoping it's a snowy one, just bought myself a snow shovel

Edited October 4, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[weatherobsuk]

A little on the Nabro eruption so2 content from Nasa.gov

http://aura.gsfc.nasa.gov/science/feature-20120305b.html

Nabro continues to emit SO₂ so it's possible that the total SO₂ production may be up to 2 Tg. This makes the Nabro eruption among the largest SO₂ emissions in the tropics since Pinatubo (~20 Tg). Although other recent tropical eruptions (e.g., Sierra Negra (Galapagos) in 2005, some Nyamuragira (DR Congo) eruptions) have produced comparable SO₂ loadings, the Nabro emissions have reached higher altitudes (up to at least 19 km according to CALIPSO space lidar), where resulted sulfate aerosols could stay long enough to produce a measurable climatic perturbation.

[Skyraker]

I've been following Laminate floori on twitter in the hope that he'd do a European winter forecast, but all i'm getting from him is rabid right wing tweets about the bloody election.

Shame really... I used to look forward to his take on things.... now I just think he's a dick.

[SnowObsessor90]

I put up with that over many of the years druing the 90s and early naughties. Mind you, I did get my snow fix when visiting higher elevations, locally.

Yup but that was before Winter's 09/10 and 10/11 shifted perceptions somewhat. Sometimes I kinda wish that those winters never happened as in that scenario I most likely wouldn't be bothered one way or another or even be on here lol

[gottolovethisweather]

Yup but that was before Winter's 09/10 and 10/11 shifted perceptions somewhat. Sometimes I kinda wish that those winters never happened as in that scenario I most likely wouldn't be bothered one way or another or even be on here lol

Indeed, that is precisely why I mentioned those years. If we all keep our feet firmly on the ground with regard to our expectations then, we should be pleased with anything half decent. I am however, of the opinion,that our climate has changed and it just depends on which quarter of the year, the extremities come together.

[Suburban Streamer]

I've been following Laminate floori on twitter in the hope that he'd do a European winter forecast, but all i'm getting from him is rabid right wing tweets about the bloody election.

Never thought much of him as a forecaster but since he is a meteorologist I thought I'd follow him this year. However, I find he comes across as quite arrogant. I followed him for two weeks but unfollowed as of last week. And his tweets about Nadine were way off the mark.

Edited October 4, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[SnowObsessor90]

Indeed, that is precisely why I mentioned those years. If we all keep our feet firmly on the ground with regard to our expectations then, we should be pleased with anything half decent. I am however, of the opinion,that our climate has changed and it just depends on which quarter of the year, the extremities come together.

Well tbh anything would be better than last winter in this neck of woods, the best we managed was a brief covering in December followed by rain/freezing rain during that cold snap in Feb whilst others got Snow.

[Methuselah]

Indeed, that is precisely why I mentioned those years. If we all keep our feet firmly on the ground with regard to our expectations then, we should be pleased with anything half decent. I am however, of the opinion,that our climate has changed and it just depends on which quarter of the year, the extremities come together.

[EML Network]

Or uncle Bart could pay a visit....

To see these sort of charts in January would have quite a few of us ripping our hair out.

These charts are from two consecutive runs of the CFS, both equally as grim.

Am I reading the chart wrong ?? the one on the 3rd Jan looks pretty good to me the entire UK is under the 528 Dam Line and the wind is from the East ?? but all of this coming from Low Pressure off the Atlantic ?? seems like on weird chart, but not so bad ??

[gottolovethisweather]

Isn't your reaction a bit extreme.

I see GP is lurking, perhaps he can bring us some decorum in here.

[johnholmes]

As one who has first hand experience of every winter from 1947 onwards I do hope you all get what you hope for but do not think that a winter of 1947 or 1962-63 severity would be enjoyable by any of you-it would not.

Some would be fed up after 2-3 weeks some might last 2 months but none of you, that is with any sense, would last 3 months, take it from one who has been there.

[Aaron]

I have experienced a winter in Toronto, when over 200cm of snow fell, and the temperatures plunged below -20C in February - trust me, I know what I can handle, unlike most on here I've actually fully experienced the weather I claim to love and admire so much, a winter far, far, far colder and snowier than any winter the UK has ever or will ever experience, and I enjoyed every moment of it.

When snow is actually dealt with adequately, it does not become a pain nor does it disrupt daily life. As far as I'm concerned, we're a nation of pansies with low tolerance of everything.

Edited October 4, 2012 by Aaron

[weatherobsuk]

As someone who lives close to 1000ft here in the Peak District I too can say the hype is short lived when considering factors such as amenities, public transport, heating costs, accidents, etc. When you're stuck waiting for the Buxton train because it's stuck in snowdrift, having to walk on roads because pavements resemble ice-rinks, and shivering under 2 duvet covers as the power is out and only a generator for basic necessities it quickly becomes a pain.

April of this month especially with the huge snowfall we had at the end of the season led to almost every road closed, with the A6 bumper-to-bumper, livestock suffering, and the nearby MedEvac helicopters on constant rotation due to demand as services were unable to cope with the roads & demand.

[beng]

I have experienced a winter in Toronto, when over 200cm of snow fell, and the temperatures plunged below -20C in February - trust me, I know what I can handle, unlike most on here I've actually fully experienced the weather I claim to love and admire so much, a winter far, far, far colder and snowier than any winter the UK has ever or will ever experience, and I enjoyed every moment of it.

Of course in Toronto they're used to dealing with it - here - our infrastructure would crumble under these conditions. Still I'd like to experience a really severe UK winter at least once.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Yes I agree with John on this, although I was born a few years after 1947 my parents told me about how bad it was in terms of having to climb out of the bedroom window as the snowdrifts were that bad blocking the doors and downstairs windows.

So I think most on here would get fed up after a few weeks of that amount of snow. Although let's face it it is highly unlikely to happen like that this Winter, if not it would of happened again by now but it hasn't, 1962/63 was bad but not as bad as 1947.

[Methuselah]

I have experienced a winter in Toronto, when over 200cm of snow fell, and the temperatures plunged below -20C in February - trust me, I know what I can handle, unlike most on here I've actually fully experienced the weather I claim to love and admire so much, a winter far, far, far colder and snowier than any winter the UK has ever or will ever experience, and I enjoyed every moment of it.

When snow is actually dealt with adequately, it does not become a pain nor does it disrupt daily life. As far as I'm concerned, we're a nation of pansies with low tolerance of everything.

And 'tolerated' it is, in the Scottish Highlands (21 years!). But, in SE England 200cm of snow and -20C wouldn't be quite so welcome??

[beng]

And 'tolerated' it is, in the Scottish Highlands (21 years!). But, in SE England 200cm of snow and -20C wouldn't be quite so welcome??

Burst pipes & broken boilers everywhere I'd imagine!