Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 2

[jethro]

Thought some here may find this interesting:

"Scientists have uncovered evidence for another natural cycle that, like El Niño and La Niña, shifts Pacific Ocean winds and currents and rearranges rainfall and weather patterns around the globe. The newly detected cycle recurs every 100 years, less frequently than the two-to-seven year El Niño-Southern Oscillation. But its existence, if confirmed, offers another fundamental cog to understand the ocean-atmosphere machinery that regulates worldwide rain, droughts, wildfires, floods, landslides, fisheries, and storms."

http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/pco

[Gavin Hannah]

Mr Madden has posted his forecast for the next two months.

UK Winter 2012/13 Forecast - 3 page PDF report (Dec,Jan,Feb) available here

October

October is likely to feature near or below-average temperatures as a whole, although some interspersions of milder weather are also likely to develop at times especially in the southern half of the country. A number of frequent wet and very windy or exceptionally windy periods are also likely to develop for many parts of the country at times too. The cooler periods of weather will also see the development of some overnight frosts in places. These cooler periods will also be accompanied by the first falls of snow and some wintry showers in places, especially across higher ground in parts of the north as we progress throughout October.

November

November is likely to feature below-average temperatures as a whole. It is likely to become progressively colder as we progress throughout the month and into the start of winter, with the development of some quite severe frosts in places. These cooler periods of weather will be accompanied by further falls of snow across higher ground, and these are also likely to develop across some lower levels of the country at times too. It is also likely to be a relatively drier month overall in terms of rainfall amounts. However, some further periods of wet and windy weather are still probable to develop at times too.

The long range winter forecast for 2012/13 that was published on the 23rd June 2012 also stated:

1. A number of exceptional and unusually strong windy periods are also likely to develop at times throughout the upcoming autumn and winter period. Some of these winds could also prove to be very damaging and potentially record-breaking in places.

2. The cold and wintry conditions are also likely to arrive earlier this year i.e. in autumn.

Also stay tuned to the 4-day forecasts that are continuously updated on model suggestions at regular intervals throughout each day. Thank you for visiting Exacta Weather.

It appears to me to be a very vague and restrained forecast. With the exception of Maddens prediction of colder than average temps. May be because he's charging for his snowmaggedon one.

Anyone purchased Madden's premium forecast?

Edited October 2, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Mark Neal.]

It appears to me to be a very vague and restrained forecast. With the exception of Maddens prediction of colder than average temps. May be because he's charging for his snowmaggedon one.

Or in one last act to at least save his reputation...

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I hate to be critical about people, especially when I know so little myself when it comes to the weather, but some people just don't help themselves! Surely anyone could have written a forecast like this and to expect people to pay for this is quite frankly unbelievable! Just to prove a point!

'' I see the weather in Nottinghamshire this October being rather cool, probably cooler than average. There will be the occasional milder interludes and at times some rather wet and windy conditions. Perhaps even bordering on gales with possible storm force damage (batten down the hatches!). We will start to see more clearer nights with tempratures dipping below freezing and giving some ground frosts''

All just sounds a bit made up to me and makes you realise just how good the forecasts are, that are posted on this forum by those that are really clued up, keep up the good work folks!

[Summer Sun]

Weather Online have updated there seasonal forecast to cover December you can read there forecast here -

[Radiating Dendrite]

Weather Online have updated there seasonal forecast to cover December you can read there forecast here - http://forum.netweat...00#entry2376558

Great.

So another forecast dreamed up in somebodies head there

Some of the specifics are silly. We do not know wind directions for next week, nevermind Christmas.

[AWD]

It is hard to take someone who calls themselves "Captain Bob" too seriously!

[cheeky_monkey]

We reached 27c yesterday yet snow is the forecast for later today overnight and into tomorrow. ..from summer to winter in 24 hrs!

[SnowObsessor90]

If only Madden was a 'warmist" and forcasted average to milder winters instead, maybe then we'd have better luck lol

Edited October 2, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Mark Neal.]

We reached 27c yesterday yet snow is the forecast for later today overnight and into tomorrow. ..from summer to winter in 24 hrs!

I'd love that to happen here, never going to happen i'm afraid.

[Met4Cast]

If only Madden was a 'warmist" and forcasted average to milder winters instead, maybe then we'd have better luck lol

If he was I doubt we would have even heard of him

[johnholmes]

I know this thread is for folk to have lots of fun but to those who may venture in here expecting some sensible comments about what may happen-forget it.

No one, no machine can predict the weather more accurately for 3 months ahead than the toss of a coin at the moment. 6 weeks in advance maybe to get more than an evens chance of being correct.

If you accept that then enjoy the fun.

Edited October 2, 2012 by johnholmes

[Met4Cast]

CFS Daily is going for a nice dose of Northern Blocking to end the month

[Karl83]

We reached 27c yesterday yet snow is the forecast for later today overnight and into tomorrow. ..from summer to winter in 24 hrs!

Oh lucky you

[BornFromTheVoid]

CFS Daily is going for a nice dose of Northern Blocking to end the month

Don't need the CFS for that!

06z GEFS, P16 t372

[Eskimo]

Don't need the CFS for that!

06z GEFS, P16 t372

Model agreement?

[Methuselah]

I know this thread is for folk to have lots of fun but to those who may venture in here expecting some sensible comments about what may happen-forget it.

No one, no machine can predict the weather more accurately for 3 months ahead than the toss of a coin at the moment. 6 weeks in advance maybe to get more than an evens chance of being correct.

If you accept that then enjoy the fun.

Aye John. I just hope NW doesn't come in for any uncalled-for slating IF Snowmageddon fails to materialize?

[gottolovethisweather]

Aye John. I just hope NW doesn't come in for any uncalled-for slating when Snowmageddon fails to materialize?

Surely that response should read as follows.

Aye John. I just hope the other unmentionable long-term forecasters come in for a called-for slating as Snowmageddon materialises.

[Methuselah]

Surely that response should read as follows.

Aye John. I just hope the other unmentionable long-term forecasters come in for a called-for slating as Snowmageddon materialises.

Edited post, G!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Model agreement?

I wish, they're nearly 2 weeks apart! Just nice looking charts, nothing more at this stage!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thought some here may find this interesting:

"Scientists have uncovered evidence for another natural cycle that, like El Niño and La Niña, shifts Pacific Ocean winds and currents and rearranges rainfall and weather patterns around the globe. The newly detected cycle recurs every 100 years, less frequently than the two-to-seven year El Niño-Southern Oscillation. But its existence, if confirmed, offers another fundamental cog to understand the ocean-atmosphere machinery that regulates worldwide rain, droughts, wildfires, floods, landslides, fisheries, and storms."

http://www.whoi.edu/...nus/feature/pco

Straight away I'm not liking the report with htis para

The new cycle, called the Pacific Centennial Oscillation, was reported in the September 2012 issue of Journal of Climate. It provides a deeper understanding of how natural cycles may interact with manmade global warming to produce far-reaching climate impacts emanating from the Pacific region.

BFTP

[cheeky_monkey]

Oh lucky you

Not luck really...just in the wrong place at the wrong time

[Methuselah]

Straight away I'm not liking the report with htis para

The new cycle, called the Pacific Centennial Oscillation, was reported in the September 2012 issue of Journal of Climate. It provides a deeper understanding of how natural cycles may interact with manmade global warming to produce far-reaching climate impacts emanating from the Pacific region.

BFTP

Where's the problem, Fred? Both natural and manmade signals are (almost) universally accepted...

[Cloud 10]

I wish, they're nearly 2 weeks apart! Just nice looking charts, nothing more at this stage!

Its impressive that you are looking through individual ensemble members in early October.

This activity does not normally become apparent until well into winter!

[gottolovethisweather]

Is this the Winter 2012/13 discussion thread?

Edited October 2, 2012 by gottolovethisweather