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Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

Paul

By Paul
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted

Latest 6z NAE showing East - North Easterly gales affecting Northern England northwards during Monday afternoon. Mean speeds 30-35mph over land, 40-45mph over exposed sea and coastal areas.

post-9615-0-40370300-1348395046_thumb.pn

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Seems to me that South East England and London may get absolutely rained on over the next few days. The heaviest band seems to be going towards London.

I'm not so sure about that particular area, however the storm's rainfall is intensifying over a wide area. Will the winds pick up too? Dead calm here, for now. drinks.gif

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Just wondering about the potential for NorthEast coastal flooding into mid-week as wind vectors swing counter-clockwise onto land and sea heights interract with flood-waters coming down from the main outlets. From Edinburgh down to Middlesborough the likeliest area for this.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

Ian Fergusson on Twitter;

W COUNTRY Scenario tonight & early hrs Mon remains of concern. Rainfall widely 20-30mm but circa 30% prob to 80mm parts of Somerset-Dorset

Edited by Mapantz
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Updated 36 hour rain totals from the NMM pain a pretty grim picture...

post-2-0-80182100-1348396194_thumb.png

Possibly a month's worth of rainfall in approximately 36 hours for a vast area, that indeed is rather worrying. Especially when you consider what will be following that little lot over the rest of the week. help.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

How am I looking for northwest England on Monday will I be getting the wet fart of the storm?

see the NMM chart Paul has posted, look for the neatest spot location to yourself, watch for any changes through the updates, every 6 hours, don't be surprised if there are changes

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

As in any rainfall situation DON'T take any particular chart too literally. All models have a lot of trouble in predicting correct rainfall totals and getting the areal spread correct.

What the overall pattern from all available models IS suggesting though is that probably somewhere between 1 to 2 inches will fall over many areas of the UK away from the far north of Scotland in the next 72 hours, in places this MAY be nearly double this. Stream and river levels in many areas are going to be very high with flooding a real risk in places. This may be heightened by rivers as they try to empty into the sea being hindered by high tide or as someone has already commented by winds off the sea tending to make this worse down some parts of the east coasts of Scotland and England.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

I think that the storm off the Cherbourg peninsular is earlier than forecast for these type of convective developments for today. Maybe promising for later for those hoping to catch a storm .

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

This indicates precisely why we need to keep our focus firmly on what is coming up from further south. air_kiss.gif

post-7183-0-30584500-1348397574_thumb.gi

My current temperature is only 9.5c but that should rise throughout the day and into the evening. I have a 2mph windspeed and a barometer reading of 1009.2hpa, so nothing particularly worrying yet.

All of the above will change for the worst and I feel for those facing the brunt of this, perhaps we should hope it doesn't bomb then. diablo.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

Momentous occurrence here in East Sussex.

I have just found the 'show scale' button on the V6 radar!!

How long have I had it! D'oh!

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Calm, cloudy, dry. 12.4C.

Expect to replace this tomorrow with:

Torrential rain, boats replaced cars, floating. 9C.

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Momentous occurrence here in East Sussex.

I have just found the 'show scale' button on the V6 radar!!

How long have I had it! D'oh!

and you have just had a dig at me i the other thread - touche!

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
Posted

and you have just had a dig at me i the other thread - touche!

I thought you were joking in the other thread John!!!!

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Bobby Seasoned

Bobby

Posted
Posted (edited)

Moderate-heavy rain here now, 7.5mm so far. Cold too.

GFS and HIRLAM shows a lot of rain to fall by this time tomorrow

30-777_ake6.GIF

12092418_2306.gif

2-3 inches in Wales and SW England/Midlands and into NW England and parts Scotland.

Over 100mm in places over next 5 days

120-777_uys6.GIF

Edited by Barb-
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I thought you were joking in the other thread John!!!!

nah just reading that para made my head hurt!

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