Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

[simon29]

What would happen if we had a low with a pressure of 900 mb

[Sainsbo]

What would happen if we had a low with a pressure of 900 mb

Few inches of rain, winds like we've never seen before. Not much else really, but a lot of devistation I imagine.

[Paul]

Child of Nadine's current forecast track along with the rain..

[Lynxus]

Child of Nadine's current forecast track along with the rain..

Damn.. Looks like a good 12hrs of constant heavy rain! ?

[Paul]

Damn.. Looks like a good 12hrs of constant heavy rain! ?

Yes, potentially really, really wet for the west country.

[chionomaniac]

I don't think that there has been too much change in Nadinina's track and intensity since this morning.

For those looking for the risk of storms embedded in the fronts then the risk is low but initially greatest for southern counties during Sunday night.

This transfers further north during the week but still looks low.

[Gael_Force]

ECM looks like it has downgraded it slightly this evening but still plenty of wet and windy weather ahead,

Comparison between the GFS, ECM and UKMO at 48 hours not much difference but we see the GFS going for the deepest pressure,

At 72 hours we have good agreement there mainly between the UKMO and ECM while the GFS goes for something a bit deeper,

The ECM charts on Meteociel are showing the low at +48 to be the same as GFS

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3127/ECM1-48_fya3.GIF

[Summer Sun]

John Hammond has provided a further update on the wet and windy weather forecast for the UK over the coming days

For the south west tomorrow 50mph gusts are possible with 50mm of rain

Into Monday an area between Birmingham and Edinburgh could see 50mm of rain with strong winds

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19687222

[chionomaniac]

The ECM charts on Meteociel are showing the low at +48 to be the same as GFS

http://images.meteoc...CM1-48_fya3.GIF

Yes, it is difficult to tell sometimes in the 24hr timeframes as well. A lot can happen in that time!

[lorenzo]

La Nadine.... Nadinina... got to love a pun

[Liam J]

Latest satellite image, click on the link to view an animated loop of the development over the last few hours - http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

[chionomaniac]

Luckily, I don't have to go out for 24 hours now, so I can prepare a roast, watch the football and keep up to date with Nadinina at my leisure tomorrow.

[Thunder Snow]

Summer I'm sure it says 50mm but 100mm is possible in some parts. I think the rain is going to sit the longest of Cumbria and Scotland for quite awhile

[Dorsetbred]

Like others I'm expecting rainfall, but not expecting to see HUGE totals as many expect.

Of course once we come out the other side of this we shall see.

Forward motion/speed is the big thing with this as it crosses the UK.

I do find it interesting that the "eye" of this seems to be very slow moving at the moment.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul]

The ECM charts on Meteociel are showing the low at +48 to be the same as GFS

We've just updated our model comparison page to start from 24 hours to help with comparisons on this system

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=modelcomp;sess=

[Dorsetbred]

We've just updated our model comparison page to start from 24 hours to help with comparisons on this system

http://www.netweathe...modelcomp;sess=

Is it me or are the Met Office charts missing, in particular SLP?

Edited September 22, 2012 by Dorsetbred

[Paul]

Is it me or are the Met Office charts missing?

Meto charts start from 72 hours

[Dorsetbred]

Meto charts start from 72 hours

THks

[Liam J]

Latest fax charts not painting a good picture - Best start building an ark!! Severe easterly gales on the lows northern flank.

Atrocious conditions through central/northern UK on this chart.

Edited September 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Mapantz]

Like others I'm expecting rainfall, but not expecting to see HUGE totals as many expect.

Of course once we come out the other side of this we shall see.

Forward motion/speed is the big thing with this as it crosses the UK.

I do find it interesting that the "eye" of this seems to be very slow moving at the moment.

I'm expecting to see at least 25mm from the first batch tomorrow, and then with the second lot later on Sunday night in to Monday, perhaps another 30mm. We're not in a bad position here, very similar to July 6th/7th.

[aggy]

Latest fax charts not painting a good picture - Best start building an ark!! Severe easterly gales on the lows northern flank.

Atrocious conditions through central/northern UK on this chart.

Here was e thinking it had downgraded alot according to net weather forcast ??????????

[Paul]

It's not downgrading, just subtle movements of the low can make all the difference when it comes to localised conditions.

[knocker]

And the next day.

[Liam J]

Here was e thinking it had downgraded alot according to net weather forcast ??????????

Hi Aggy - I'm not sure what has been downgraded? Whilst confidence has increased throughout today for the likelihood of severe weather impacting the UK, things are still developing with minor changes in the track and intensity likely to result in changes on a local scale. nothing is 100% yet so just keep up to date with the latest model/forecast data, and indeed this thread...

Edited September 22, 2012 by Liam J

[Eskimo]

Here is a GIF (moving images) of the precipitation. Enjoy!