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Child Of Nadine (Karin) - Severe Weather Discussion

Paul

By Paul
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Heavy rainfall and strengthening easterly winds now pushing into southern counties with the rainfall just nudging into South Wales now. Very heavy rainfall out over the channel atm.

post-9615-0-41278900-1348391252_thumb.pn Huge cloud mass associated with this system

post-9615-0-98284800-1348391718_thumb.gi Approx 993mb central pressure atm

post-9615-0-04559900-1348391144_thumb.gi Satellite ananlysis - lightening strikes being detected

post-9615-0-93231900-1348391202_thumb.gi Surface analysis - this looks like it hasn't been updated for a few hours

Edited by Liam J
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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Rain has moved only a few tens of miles since 3.30am from Bristol up into Cardiff currently. Interesting the NMM charts are showing a 'Pennine effect' with less accumulated rain on the foothills along the Cheshire Ridge up into the Goyt area, and the leeward facing slopes downwind getting the full effect of the topographic enhancement.

Should be interesting watching river levels especially the Dove & Wye which run south of Buxton.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Nadine's child has a name!!!!

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief2012/

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WATCH #056

ISSUED: 1930UTC SATURDAY 22ND SEPTMEMBER 2012 (GJ/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ALL REGIONS OF THE UK

IN EFFECT FROM 0600UTC SUNDAY 23RD SEPTEMBER UNTIL 2359UTC MONDAY 24TH SEPTEMBER 2012

ENERGY FROM POST TS NADINE GIVES BIRTH TO SATURATED AND DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ["KARIN"].

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...LOCALISED FLOODING + RIVER FLOODING...GALES...STRONG GUSTS

DISCUSSION:

SOME GOOD CROSS MODEL AGREEMENT NOW OF THE POTENTIAL TRACK AND EFFECTS THAT WILL COME FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ("KARIN") WHICH WILL MOVE MOSTLY NORTH/NORTH EAST THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD. TIGHTENING ISOBARS AND A TRIPLE POINT BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ENGLAND SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING POTENTIALLY GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND WITH HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND/OR RIVER FLOODING, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH-WEST, WESTERN ENGLAND AND WALES WITH HEAVY RAIN TRACKING NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF ENGLAND DURING THE DAY.

AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK N/NE THROUGH THE DAY, SO THE BLUSTERY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH WITH EXPOSED EASTERN COASTAL LOCATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TOUCHING GALE FORCE.

MONDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUED THEME AS THE WRAP AROUND OCCLUSION BRINGS FURTHER HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ENGLAND AND WALES IN WHICH OVER 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATED RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PERIOD. THIS HEAVY RAIN SHALL MOVE FURTHER NORTH THROUGH MONDAY INTO NORTHERN IRELAND AND SCOTLAND WITH GUSTS OF 50-60MPH LIKELY IN PARTS OF SCOTLAND DURING MONDAY EVENING.

THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED WITH WARNINGS TO SPECIFIC REGIONS DURING THE TIME PERIOD IF AND WHEN DEEMED NECESSARY.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

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Uncle_Barty Enthusiast

Uncle_Barty

Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
Posted

You'll be reporting a lot more than that soon when that mass out to your south heads in!

Looks like the worst might just miss us to the east at current rate/direction of movement, with Southampton eastwards copping the worst, but it will be touch and go.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Hi,

I just thought I'd do a quick radar grab for you all in order to show this depression's movement.

post-7183-0-04306700-1348391844_thumb.gi

*The areas encircled in black are where the heaviest batches of rain currently are. I'm assuming these may well develop further as the warmer uppers (as mentioned by Chinio) displace the cooler uppers. The general movement of the rainband is approximately SSW to NNE and would be travelling along at about 40 to 50mph. good.gif

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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pyrotech Enthusiast

pyrotech

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted

Yes moderate rain now in Cardiff. Rain moved in at 9am here.

Nadine her self became just a depression as child of Nadine was born. Looking on floodwarn hurricane page it seems Nadine. Is quickly heading back to become a tropical storm (sub). This evident on satelite images too with rapid convection. Child of Nadine now has. Wide spread spherics over North west france so perhaps some thunder for some in next few hours. I think any intensification will be after 10pm tonight due to interaction with the jet stream but rainfall totalls will rise quickly in the south before then. Maybe my neighbour in Barry, welshgirl will see some big surf roll in over next 48hrs.

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Rain has moved only a few tens of miles since 3.30am from Bristol up into Cardiff currently. Interesting the NMM charts are showing a 'Pennine effect' with less accumulated rain on the foothills along the Cheshire Ridge up into the Goyt area, and the leeward facing slopes downwind getting the full effect of the topographic enhancement.

Should be interesting watching river levels especially the Dove & Wye which run south of Buxton.

It takes 2 days to peak in the Wye.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Looks like the worst might just miss us to the east at current rate/direction of movement, with Southampton eastwards copping the worst, but it will be touch and go.

Remembering this is only the beginning phase and some charts I've been looking at have the worst of it in the darker hours and through the night. 'Karin' is going to throw her toys out of the pram tonight!

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pyrotech Enthusiast

pyrotech

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted

Someone mentioned watching rivers.

Floodwarn has rivercams for seeing live rivers accross the uk.

Although floodwarn is based in Cardiff they have access to cameras accross England and Scotland too.

If you know of a river cam not on there, let me. Know and i can add it to share with others.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Currently only a couple of official flood warnings in place in the SW, keep an eye on here:

http://www.environme...uthwest&from=fl

UK:

http://www.environme...oods/31618.aspx

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pyrotech Enthusiast

pyrotech

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted

It takes 2 days to peak in the Wye.

To a large extent your correct. In England both the Wye and Severn take a few days to peak. The Severn can rise within hours inNewtown. Mid Wales and Wye also in Builth Wells etc. The greatest risk for these rivers is in England thou, Tewkesbury. And Glos particularly.

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Uncle_Barty Enthusiast

Uncle_Barty

Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Heavy rainfall and strengthening easterly winds now pushing into southern counties with the rainfall just nudging into South Wales now. Very heavy rainfall out over the channel atm.

post-9615-0-41278900-1348391252_thumb.pn Huge cloud mass associated with this system

post-9615-0-98284800-1348391718_thumb.gi Approx 993mb central pressure atm

post-9615-0-04559900-1348391144_thumb.gi Satellite ananlysis - lightening strikes being detected

post-9615-0-93231900-1348391202_thumb.gi Surface analysis - this looks like it hasn't been updated for a few hours

Liam, whats the link to the bottom 2 charts please?

This looks like being not so much "Child of Nadine", but her evil ginger stepchild! (with apologies to anyone with ginger hair reading this :) )

Edited by Jim_AFCB
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

UK Met actual and forecasts with the latest actual 06z

I didn't think they named uk storms?

UK Met don't

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

To help those new to weather watching I thought I might do a pdf, not just for Nadines' offshoot but for any low pressure system predicted to affect the UK.

Various things that help track it, predict its movement, will it deepen etc.

Not sure if I can get it out in draft form today but I will if I can and then drop the finished pdf into the Net Wx Guides for future reference unless there is one already there.

In the meantime I would suggest book marking the following

UK Fax charts for actual and predicted

http://www.netweathe...;type=fax;sess=

Actual surface weather for UK and other areas

http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=UK

moving infra red sat picc showing cloud movements

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

and the Net Wx paid radar

http://www.netweathe...9c59be4d3ac5ec0

If you bookmark those along with any model outputs like NAE, NMM or more basic model data then you will have enough to keep you fully informed I reckon!

I will go and put my think hat on about doing the pdf

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Rainy Rookie

Rainy

Posted
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
  • Location: LANCS. 12 miles NE of Preston at the SW corner of the Bowland Fells. 550ft, 170m approx.
Posted

"Nadine's child has a name!!!!"

Thanks COAST for this very important info.

Boy or girl? Blue or pink?

Very restless baby I see.

Is Mum going on tour and popping back next week from a different direction, albeit more subdued.?

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Purplepixii Enthusiast

Purplepixii

Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
Posted

watching the radar - anyone on Guernsey confirm that the island is still there lol? Seems to be getting hammered by storms! search.gif

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted

Latest front page update now online

Child Of Tropical Storm Nadine Arrives

Paul,

She is taking after her mother- who likes the Azores whereas her daughter Nadininina wants to see all the British Isles.!!!!!

Simple to forcast when you realise they are human after all!!

PS Hope she doesn't change her mind now she is growing up.

MIA

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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Seems to me that South East England and London may get absolutely rained on over the next few days. The heaviest band seems to be going towards London.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Like others have said, seems that the heaviest rainfall is heading towards eastern parts of the country.

Might not be as bad as what some model output suggest for me personally. Still very wet though and still a long way to go.

Persistent moderate rain here now, no wind yet though!

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

watching the radar - anyone on Guernsey confirm that the island is still there lol? Seems to be getting hammered by storms! search.gif

Indeed, the coastal area stretching from West Dorset across to East Hampshire can expect some torrential rain over the next few hours, based on current radar imagery.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74510-child-of-nadine-karin-severe-weather-discussion/page__st__180#entry2370845

Scarily, my earlier prediction, with regard to the expansion of the watch areas appears to be very accurate. acute.gifhelp.gif

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