Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Really do not see how you can squeeze an El nino even out of this esp as those SST off the coast of Peru seem to be getting colder weekly? if anything looks like a La nina event developing which could flip those long range N.American winter forecasts on their heads!

Indeed, and my point in hand. Perturbation cycle entered since Feb 2007 is for La Nina dominantion....are we seeing El Nino suppression before our eyes? In July IMO it looked very favourable for El Nino development, not now...

BFTP

[BornFromTheVoid]

A -ve PDO will tend to hinder El Nino development too I believe.

Current forecasts are for ENSO to head to the negative side neutral early next year, but not to dip much lower after that. Will be interesting to see how things pan out

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just as a negative point. If the SST is very important around Greenland then that ver positive anomaly is now moving further south....does that me mid Atlantic HP?

BFTP

[Tim Bland]

Do you mean SSW? SST is sea surface temps. SSW is sudden stratospheric warming.

BFTP

Thanks BTFP that's my understanding too... On the previous page there was a discussion about SST events lol. Are you and Rojer doing a forecast this year?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks BTFP that's my understanding too... On the previous page there was a discussion about SST events lol. Are you and Rojer doing a forecast this year?

RJS is for sure, I may enter my own this year too as I've found myself with more time this autumn.

BFTP

[UV-RAY]

A -ve PDO will tend to hinder El Nino development too I believe.

Current forecasts are for ENSO to head to the negative side neutral early next year, but not to dip much lower after that. Will be interesting to see how things pan out

Up until now all the models are underestimating how the -PDO is effecting the strength of any nino. They have had to continually amend each forecast and I wouldn't be surprised too see nina conditions take hold before winter is out.

[BornFromTheVoid]

US temperature records, from here http://www.ncdc.noaa...tremes/records/

Daily records

Period ...... ....... ....... ...../ Hi Max ..... Hi Min ...... Lo Max ..... Lo Min...... Precip*...... Snow*

Yesterday Oct 8, 2012................/ 4............. 4............... 215.......... 119 ..........11 ...............0

Last 7 Days Oct 2 - 8, 2012......./ 143 ........313 ...........1,126 .........579 .........325 ...........118

Last 30 Days .... ........ .............../ 638........ 764........... 1,766...... 1,296.........1,903 .........129

Last 365 Days......................./ 32,646..... 30,390........ 9,049....... 6,753...... 30,049....... 5,035

Month to Date Oct 1 - 8........../ 159............ 330.......... 1,158........ 587.......... 465........... 119

Year to Date Jan 1 - Oct 8...../ 29,678..... 26,643........ 7,070....... 5,279....... 22,010...... 3,084

Last Year to Date................../ 23,593..... 25,913....... 13,704....... 8,184...... 25,695....... 7,534

More monthly highs set than lows so far this October though.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Up until now all the models are underestimating how the -PDO is effecting the strength of any nino. They have had to continually amend each forecast and I wouldn't be surprised too see nina conditions take hold before winter is out.

Yep, most forecasts/predictions have handles this particlar Nino quite poorly.

Hitting Nina levels by then will take quite a drop, but I suppose it's possible.

[n1russ]

Hi all,

Snow is one of the most difficult, if not the most difficult element to forecast in the UK, so I've done a guide/tutorial just explaining some of the most important things to look out for if you want to know whether its going to snow or rain;

http://www.gavsweath.../snowwatch.html

Hope your enoy it and I hope I've explained everything OK.

Many thanks.

excellent post gav

[Jayces]

http://www.blogtalkr...tardi-joe-daleo at 8 mins 27 secs - I know it's another Joe Bas tardi post but still, he really is pushing for a harsh winter this year...

A friend of mine back in the 90's told me to leave England for warmer climes because the government know there is an ice age coming for England.

We have of course all laughed at him but he has emigrated to Australia where he now resides.

If Joe is to be believed and we are heading for a taste of a mini ice age for many winters to come then I guess my friend will have a big grin on his face.

Not sure how popular a 47 / 63 style winter will be if we have them every year for a number of years.......

[ZONE 51]

Rather colder than expected? (sea surface temps)

[weather is fun]

Wouldnt put much faith in joe b he was forecasting same last winter for uk until he changed his tune at the last minute

[snowfluff]

Yes, with time you get to know which ones to ignore!

But the promising signals for this winter are on good sound basis whether they come to fruition or not.

Thanks for that information,but could you give us a heads up, re ones to ignore, you seem to know who they are?

[lorenzo]

Watch the video and have a guess !!

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html

The only year where JAS reading at neutral positive went to Nina since 1950 was 2005 very rare.. the weak Nino solution is still in play, neutral continuing based on below.

[Jayces]

Wouldnt put much faith in joe b he was forecasting same last winter for uk until he changed his tune at the last minute

That may be true but surely there are many on this thread who are highlighting numerous signals that could lead to a cold winter?

I guess nobody really knows but I think the data gathering in threads like these will help people in future winters.

[weather is fun]

Well i certainly wouldnt be putting any faith whatsoever in joe b

[johnholmes]

You said it was pretty standard.. it isn't.. records are broken quite frequently but temperatures in the 30's Fahrenheit in the US South in Mississippi isn't 'pretty standard' nor is snow in Nebraska this early. I think you need to think your posts out first so you don't end up twisting and turning when you realise you're wrong..

I think the post by c_m is perfectly reasonable, as in many cases in meteorology-the trend is what to look at as he suggests

equally stop making personal digs if someone does not agree with you please?

Edited October 9, 2012 by johnholmes

[SMU]

US temperature records, from here http://www.ncdc.noaa...tremes/records/

Daily records

Period ...... ....... ....... ...../ Hi Max ..... Hi Min ...... Lo Max ..... Lo Min...... Precip*...... Snow*

Yesterday Oct 8, 2012................/ 4............. 4............... 215.......... 119 ..........11 ...............0

Last 7 Days Oct 2 - 8, 2012......./ 143 ........313 ...........1,126 .........579 .........325 ...........118

Last 30 Days .... ........ .............../ 638........ 764........... 1,766...... 1,296.........1,903 .........129

Last 365 Days......................./ 32,646..... 30,390........ 9,049....... 6,753...... 30,049....... 5,035

Month to Date Oct 1 - 8........../ 159............ 330.......... 1,158........ 587.......... 465........... 119

Year to Date Jan 1 - Oct 8...../ 29,678..... 26,643........ 7,070....... 5,279....... 22,010...... 3,084

Last Year to Date................../ 23,593..... 25,913....... 13,704....... 8,184...... 25,695....... 7,534

More monthly highs set than lows so far this October though.

I think you may be reading that wrong- maybe its me- but month to date there has been

159 Hi Maxima records V 587 Low minima records &

330 Hi Minima Records V 1158 Low Maxima records-

All those stats are in favour of cold over warm....

Blast with the SSTA moving slightly south you would expect the Higher pressure block to move with it however with what it does to the jet in terms of shape it may well have the same effect around the south west tip of greenland..

No more even mod- er n winter posts-

S

Edited October 9, 2012 by Steve Murr

[mrsmall]

The Weather Outlook have posted this http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=bg&id=1869 its quite interesting and looks at some of the building blocks and what they believe its showing.

overall they arent making any calls yet bit i think there is some excitement in the undertones of the blog!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blast with the SSTA moving slightly south you would expect the Higher pressure block to move with it however with what it does to the jet in terms of shape it may well have the same effect around the south west tip of greenland..

No more even mod- er n winter posts-

S

Whats that bit?

BFTP

[ZONE 51]

A friend of mine back in the 90's told me to leave England for warmer climes because the government know there is an ice age coming for England.

We have of course all laughed at him but he has emigrated to Australia where he now resides.

If Joe is to be believed and we are heading for a taste of a mini ice age for many winters to come then I guess my friend will have a big grin on his face.

Not sure how popular a 47 / 63 style winter will be if we have them every year for a number of years.......

On here it would...

Don't forget the cooler summers.

[SMU]

We have no need for that ol saying the mod- ern Winter-

If I write the first word its been entered into Net weather swear filter- lol

S

[I remember Atlantic 252]

filtered to Xmas pudding, christmas pudding, modernera

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

We have no need for that ol saying the mod- ern Winter-

If I write the first word its been entered into Net weather swear filter- lol

S

We have no need, and 'I ain't spoke it'.... but the SSTa moving south is a concern IF they are THAT important.

BFTP

Edited October 9, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[ZONE 51]

The last few winters are the new winter

Edited October 9, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm