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Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Carry on your discussion here folks. Here's hoping there's plenty of snow for us all this winter.biggrin.png

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cooling climate Aficionado

cooling climate

Posted
  • Location: hertfordshire
  • Location: hertfordshire
Posted

It is still to early yet to get a better idea of how the winter may play out but I do think to

much emphasis has been put on the theory of less Arctic ice = blocking and cold snowy

winters. To coin a phrase correlation does not mean causation and especially when it

comes from model runs. The data set is also far to small to glean any meaningfull results.

Until very recently climatologists did not know the importance of the stratosphere on the

troposphere yet they have known about the stratosphere for decades. The same can be

said for solar activity.

I would therefore imagine it will be several years at least before there is any real solid

scientific proof one way or the other although my guess is that the effect is minimal at best.

Solar activity, QBO and the stratosphere including Siberian snow cover are I think the main

players with regards to a -AO and where we the UK and northwestern Europe see cold winters

or not.

PS Check out the CFS 12z run its absolutely insane for cold and snow. We can only wish.

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

Just had a quick look on metcheck,you can access the forecast for the next 180 days

good for a laugh if nothing else,my first snowfall is not due until 24th Feb....oh dearacute.gif

C.S

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Part 3 already! and its only October proving rather popular this year

Wait till the winter starts!

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted

POW! Snow is falling! All around me.. Nah just joking lol.

I have definitely notice a trend in the charts favoring HP and ridging out in the Atlantic. I would to see Atlantic/Greenland blocking from November, then a Scandi blocking from December through to January. That would do nicely.

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted

Just had a quick look on metcheck,you can access the forecast for the next 180 days

good for a laugh if nothing else,my first snowfall is not due until 24th Feb....oh dearacute.gif

C.S

For me its a cold December with the first snow on the 5th then snow for 7 out of the next 9 days then none in jan,feb and March. I will keep there forcast and see ;-)

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted

For me its a cold December with the first snow on the 5th then snow for 7 out of the next 9 days then none in jan,feb and March. I will keep there forcast and see ;-)

Bin it LOLgood.gif

C.S

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

It is still to early yet to get a better idea of how the winter may play out but I do think to

much emphasis has been put on the theory of less Arctic ice = blocking and cold snowy

winters. To coin a phrase correlation does not mean causation and especially when it

comes from model runs. The data set is also far to small to glean any meaningfull results.

Until very recently climatologists did not know the importance of the stratosphere on the

troposphere yet they have known about the stratosphere for decades. The same can be

said for solar activity.

I would therefore imagine it will be several years at least before there is any real solid

scientific proof one way or the other although my guess is that the effect is minimal at best.

Solar activity, QBO and the stratosphere including Siberian snow cover are I think the main

players with regards to a -AO and where we the UK and northwestern Europe see cold winters

or not.

PS Check out the CFS 12z run its absolutely insane for cold and snow. We can only wish.

As you say at that range we can only wish but i have to say it is the best model run i have seen for a long time, 1947 anyone???? Yes please.

In reply to John Holmes's post in the last thread, yes i would love a 1947 / 1963, to be fair though John you did qualify your comment by saying no SANE person wants another belting like those years delivered, and i am insane when it comes to my tolerance and love of cold.

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

Any snow lover should check out the latest CFS 9 month run. CFS tends to find a pattern and stick with it so is always going to go haywire but it's fun to look at just the same.

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=0&run=0

EDIT - Snap for Cooling Climate above, just noticed it myself too.

Edited by ukpaul
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Snowy Easterlies Enthusiast

Snowy Easterlies

Posted
  • Location: Bedford
  • Location: Bedford
Posted

Part three already, it feels like we get more desperate for snow every year on here, i have been a lurker for years, i recently lost my account as my computer broke so i had to make a new one,

maybe we just want cold and snow more this winter though as last winter was crap

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

Summer 2013 looking promisingblum.gif

post-2495-0-17845200-1349377203_thumb.pn

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Andy_ Apprentice

Andy_

Posted
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl
Posted (edited)

PS Check out the CFS 12z run its absolutely insane for cold and snow. We can only wish.

I think this has been my favourite CFS run so far,

The CFS has for sure entertained the cold lovers winter, on the occasions i've bothered to go through it's output over the past month or so.

The problem with such a long output model is if it gets tomorrow, or next week wrong then it's going to be wrong for the next 9 months too, such as it can only be unfortunately viewed as eye candy. Although if someone was to have noted what each run showed, i'm guessing the amount of runs it has processed a cold winter, would outnumber the amount of mild winters it has processed. A straw to clutch perhaps laugh.png

Edited by Andy163
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

cfs-2-2814.png?12

w00t.gif

EDIT:-

It's flopped...

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

I think we need to keep a close eye on the 18th October onwards, the GFS has been hinting at a cold snap around then, the latest CFS seems to have picked up on the same signal!

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted

I think this has been my favourite CFS run so far,

The CFS has for sure entertained the cold lovers winter, on the occasions i've bothered to go through it's output over the past month or so.

The problem with such a long output model is if it gets tomorrow, or next week wrong then it's going to be wrong for the next 9 months too, such as it can only be unfortunately viewed as eye candy. Although if someone was to have noted what each run showed, i'm guessing the amount of runs it has processed a cold winter, would outnumber the amount of mild winters it has processed. A straw to clutch perhaps laugh.png

I stand by what I said earlier regarding the CFS, it's about as much use at picking trends up as I am at reading tea leafs. Stick with the MetO probability charts, they are the only ones showing any consistency.
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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

Wimb finals day!!!!!!! cant believe models go that far

Maybe we should be opening a summer 2013 thread??

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Andy_ Apprentice

Andy_

Posted
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl
  • Location: Jarrow 28m asl
Posted

I stand by what I said earlier regarding the CFS, it's about as much use at picking trends up as I am at reading tea leafs. Stick with the MetO probability charts, they are the only ones showing any consistency.

But they only update every month and i'm so impatient! Haha, i guess they are due an update soon though :)

If they still look alright in the next update then thats a step in the right direction anyways

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michail Newbie

michail

Posted
  • Location: West of Ireland
  • Location: West of Ireland
Posted

Any snow lover should check out the latest CFS 9 month run. CFS tends to find a pattern and stick with it so is always going to go haywire but it's fun to look at just the same.

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=0&run=0

EDIT - Snap for Cooling Climate above, just noticed it myself too.

JESUS,MARY, AND JOSEPH!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

JESUS,MARY, AND JOSEPH!

Don't forget the Three Wise Men?

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Summer 2013 looking promisingblum.gif

I never knew they went out that far, one of these summers we'll get a good one, I know I keep saying it but we will patience will pay off eventually

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted

I never knew they went out that far, one of these summers we'll get a good one, I know I keep saying it but we will patience will pay off eventually

That's the spirit, us coldies said the very same when we was hoping for a cold winter, we didn't have to wait long did we.rolleyes.gifsorry.gif
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garbagebags Enthusiast

garbagebags

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
Posted

I think we need to keep a close eye on the 18th October onwards, the GFS has been hinting at a cold snap around then, the latest CFS seems to have picked up on the same signal!

cold snap then? Its a cold snap now! de-iced the car this morning

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