Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[NorthernRab]

From Wiki

To be a blizzard, a snow storm must have sustained winds or frequent gusts that are greater than or equal to 56 km/h (35 mph) with blowing or drifting snow which reduces visibility to 400 meters or a quarter mile or less and must last for a prolonged period of time — typically three hours or more

Using this definition, many low-lying areas may never have blizzards, with only high ground having frequent blizzards.

Sustained gusts of over 35mph with heavy snow has certainly happened here in Inverness many times, is it basically the sort of weather were the snow sticks to the walls etc?

[johnholmes]

Sustained gusts of over 35mph with heavy snow has certainly happened here in Inverness many times, is it basically the sort of weather were the snow sticks to the walls etc?

the Wiki definition as is sometimes the case with them is not correct; the visibility-200m or below not 400m or below.

Blizzard

Moderate or heavy snow accompanied by winds of 30 m.p.h. or more, with visibility reduced to 200 m or less; or drifting snow giving rise to similar conditions.

a sever blizzard has visibility of zero.

Edited October 5, 2012 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

Heavy snow and vis below 200m, unless above the cloud base is causing the vis reduction is not all that frequent even in the Alps.

I suppose out of the 26 years I've skied there probably 6 or 7 such cases, in any two week period there.

the part defined below is perhaps more often seen, again mainly at altitude in the UK but also at lower level in a few cases

or drifting snow giving rise to similar conditions.

Edited October 5, 2012 by johnholmes

[Nights King]

You know you have a blizzard when you can't get out the back door because it has drifted up against it!

Blizzards are fun but I also love to see heavy snow falling without any wind as it is kind of hypnotic to watch it for hours (I often do) float slowly to the ground!

[AWD]

You know you have a blizzard when you can't get out the back door because it has drifted up against it!

Blizzards are fun but I also love to see heavy snow falling without any wind as it is kind of hypnotic to watch it for hours (I often do) float slowly to the ground!

We get heavy snow?

We get heavy snow falling in daylight hours to be able to watch it?

Heavy Snow? The West Country?

Am I reading this correctly? lol.

;)

[Aaron]

When parts of Devon got 55cm of snow in February 2009.. up in the moors I'll admit.

[keithlucky]

1979 and '82 were in MK, both had near zero visibility at times...The others were way up in the Scottish Highlands, NW of The Great Glen.

Yes `1979 12 hrs of snow with 20foot snowdrifts blizzard conditions and rain was forecast lol.

[Summer Sun]

Deleted see post 156

Edited October 5, 2012 by Summer Sun

[cheeky_monkey]

I wonder when the last 'proper' blizzard hit populated low lying areas? I have seen a few over the years over the hills but could you imagine what would happen if places like bristol, london etc got real blizzards with drifting in strong winds?!

Can see the daily mail headline now.... The Arctic strikes back! with Day after tommorrow picture in background!

I experienced a full on Blizzard in Exeter in February 1978 my dads car was completely buried and drifts above the back door so you couldnt open it..you could very nearly walk out of the upstairs toliet window..not really seen anything like it since.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

The last time we had a proper blizzard was Feb 1996, they are a rare occurrence here. Other times after that mostly just heavy snow with not enough wind to say true blizzard.

[Chris K]

Had a look at the CFS charts today for the first time in a week or so and the combined 3 monthly charts continues to show a warmer than average winter for most of Europe this includes parts of the UK with the rest of the country at average

Precipitation looks like been above average for winter

Taking a look at the individual monthly charts for the temperatures almost all of Europe is shown to be average or well above average at some point even the Nordic regions are well above at times

Taking a look at the individual monthly charts all the winter months are shown to have above average rain fall, the exception is parts of Eastern England and Northern Scotland

The Met Office probability charts are quite a contrast to the CFS. Will it go one way or the other? Or perhaps a half-way solution being the outcome? Definitely something worth reviewing at the end of winter!

Edited October 5, 2012 by Chris K

[Met4Cast]

The Met Office probability charts are quite a contrast to the CFS. Will it go one way or the other? Or perhaps a half-way solution being the outcome? Definitely something worth reviewing at the end of winter!

The MO probability charts are out of date, they updated a couple of weeks ago so we can't really use those ones anymore. Having said that, the CFS 9 month has been showing below average more than not.

Simple answer is - The models at this range are about as useless as a chocolate teapot

If only it were winter, cracking 06z GFS run

Edited October 5, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[jethro]

So what do you call very very heavy snow that dumps like 4cm + an hour then when you have no wind?

A bleeding miracle?

[feb1991blizzard]

So what do you call very very heavy snow that dumps like 4cm + an hour then when you have no wind?

A Stonker!!!

[Weather-history]

The last time we had a proper blizzard was Feb 1996, they are a rare occurrence here. Other times after that mostly just heavy snow with not enough wind to say true blizzard.

Was February 1996, a blizzard? I don't even remember any wind with that snowfall.

[Snowmadsam]

I am too scared to forecast next month let alone Winter! :lol:

[Southern Storm]

Was February 1996, a blizzard? I don't even remember any wind with that snowfall.

It wasn't as far as I remember, we had snow falling for over 24 hours in Blackpool, the most snow I have ever seen but not a lot of wind.

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office probability charts are quite a contrast to the CFS. Will it go one way or the other? Or perhaps a half-way solution being the outcome? Definitely something worth reviewing at the end of winter!

The Met Office's probability charts for October have yet to update* so we could see changes towards CFS but there again they could stay as or near to how they are now

*They should update anytime within the next 5 days

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Was February 1996, a blizzard? I don't even remember any wind with that snowfall.

It was here, I think where you are being almost at sea level you may not have had the disruption we had in East and North Manchester.

See here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/nw/print.html: scroll down to "snowfall" and after the last graph it says: A notable example was the blizzard of 5-6 February 1996 when more than 15 cm of snow fell in low-lying parts of Lancashire and drifts were up to 2 metres deep.

[Polar Maritime]

As with any chart, its unknown untill they update...

[Cloud 10]

A few charts from the CFS updated today....

Average temps for the UK winter overall.

A cold December perhaps?

[Nights King]

We get heavy snow?

We get heavy snow falling in daylight hours to be able to watch it?

Heavy Snow? The West Country?

Am I reading this correctly? lol.

The south west of england is a funny place when it comes to snow with so many local variations but it can do exceptionaly well in right setup although I think bristol is one of the unluckiest places recently. february 2009 bristol had heavy snow albeit wet while high mendips got buried for a week and then in 2009/10 it was in a sort of no mans land only recieving mainly light falls while somerset, wiltshire and glouc got pasted and similar again for 2010/11 but then last winter I am not sure it got any. I work on edge of bristol in whitchurch which is around 100m and I can never believe how much less it gets compared to similar elevations in somerset with even wells which is low and sheltered by mendips getting alot more.

As for blizzards this event in april of 2000 was a true blizzard at home I remember I phoned in and they said it was just windy and rainy which was a shock! It was a mostly daylight hours event too so it does and can happen even in april.

[AWD]

A few charts from the CFS updated today....

Average temps for the UK winter overall.

A cold December perhaps?

These are different to the ones posted a few posts above.

Are these the latest outputs?

[Chris K]

The MO probability charts are out of date, they updated a couple of weeks ago so we can't really use those ones anymore. Having said that, the CFS 9 month has been showing below average more than not.

Simple answer is - The models at this range are about as useless as a chocolate teapot

If only it were winter, cracking 06z GFS run

The Met Office's probability charts for October have yet to update* so we could see changes towards CFS but there again they could stay as or near to how they are now

*They should update anytime within the next 5 days

Yes thanks for clearing that up. I know they were released by the MO a while ago. Still, I was posting more about the fact it will still be interesting to review what the models have been/are saying, between now and right up to the end of winter, showing how they performed at noticing (or not) any trends.

Edited October 5, 2012 by Chris K

[AWD]

The south west of england is a funny place when it comes to snow with so many local variations but it can do exceptionaly well in right setup although I think bristol is one of the unluckiest places recently. february 2009 bristol had heavy snow albeit wet while high mendips got buried for a week and then in 2009/10 it was in a sort of no mans land only recieving mainly light falls while somerset, wiltshire and glouc got pasted and similar again for 2010/11 but then last winter I am not sure it got any. I work on edge of bristol in whitchurch which is around 100m and I can never believe how much less it gets compared to similar elevations in somerset with even wells which is low and sheltered by mendips getting alot more.

As for blizzards this event in april of 2000 was a true blizzard at home I remember I phoned in and they said it was just windy and rainy which was a shock! It was a mostly daylight hours event too so it does and can happen even in april.

I remember Feb 2009 very well. One of the few occasions when Bristol done very well compared to other urban areas in the West.

Caused mayhem on the roads as the council were unprepared for such heavy falls. We even featured on the national news as one of the worst hit urban areas. I think that is about as good as I will realistically see in Bristol.