Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

this winter thread is snowballing.

high of 7 and 8 by the end of this month in stockport

[Glacier Point]

One for Steve Murr..

Top ten -NAO and +NAO winters for surface fluxes alongside those AO values:

+NAO U-flux pattern DJF >

+AO U-flux pattern DJF >

-NAO U-flux pattern DJF >

-AO U-flux pattern DJF >

+NAO pattern (mean not anomaly here) in October for V-flux >

-NAO pattern in October V-flux >

U-flux patterns are very similar for NAO and AO (note check scales). Not much difference in v-flux for October so not much merit looking there, arguably a better angle offered by the AO for October, both in terms of U-flux and V-flux.

Edited October 4, 2012 by Glacier Point

[michail]

my god, thats a frightning model. Even as a cold lover, that is extreeeeeme

Take another look!

[SMU]

HI Stewart on the October charts I must admit whilst they are obviously different they arent actually that desimilar with no real decernable difference-

Maybe the scaling would help if it was scaled up!

I wait with interest for the 2012 october flux-

Also if we want an EXtreme -AO off the scale at -6 then look no further

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/cfsnh-0-1602.png?18

S

[latitude]

Any snow lover should check out the latest CFS 9 month run. CFS tends to find a pattern and stick with it so is always going to go haywire but it's fun to look at just the same.

http://www.meteociel...2&carte=0&run=0

EDIT - Snap for Cooling Climate above, just noticed it myself too.

Please could you explain why these charts are great for cold lovers in the UK? Cant see it myself.

[joggs]

my god, thats a frightning model. Even as a cold lover, that is extreeeeeme

Yeh for Greenland

[Gavin Hannah]

Yes, I too had to de-ice the motor this morning. Weather app says another night of 1 - 3 deg tops.

[feb1991blizzard]

my god, thats a frightning model. Even as a cold lover, that is extreeeeeme

Just a point about posting meteociel CFS charts, when you are posting a chart off the latest run on the 9 month CFS, instead of doing that, look which run it is (colour coded at bottom of page), then click the corresponding run (top centre right) then copy and paste as this wont change as soon as the next run comes out, or it certainly lasts longer anyway, this way we wont get comments like 'Stonking easterly brings -20 uppers into london' next to a massive Bartlett!!!

[Mountain Snow]

Here's a question I've been pondering for a while, why is it that the record cold temperatures don't occur during the coldest winters like 47, 62/63 when the perfect conditions were prevalent (prolonged cold and deep snow). Is it just a case of the synoptics that occurred in Dec 95 and Jan 82 didn't during the big winters or did these just beat records set back then?

[feb1991blizzard]

Please could you explain why these charts are great for cold lovers in the UK? Cant see it myself.

And the insuing comments as well!!!!!

This was not the original chart posted, they change automatically.

[ukpaul]

And the insuing comments as well!!!!!

This was not the original chart posted, they change automatically.

...and for easy access for another day or so -

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1254&mode=0&carte=0&run=3

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Here's a question I've been pondering for a while, why is it that the record cold temperatures don't occur during the coldest winters like 47, 62/63 when the perfect conditions were prevalent (prolonged cold and deep snow). Is it just a case of the synoptics that occurred in Dec 95 and Jan 82 didn't during the big winters or did these just beat records set back then?

Excellent question.....and I don't know.

This'll do for Xmas Eve

BFTP

[Methuselah]

And the insuing comments as well!!!!!

This was not the original chart posted, they change automatically.

Aye, the CFS changes the general thrust of its outputs as often as us mortals change our socks!

[Cloud 10]

Please could you explain why these charts are great for cold lovers in the UK? Cant see it myself.

I think this was the chart originally posted from the 12z run.

[snowy weather]

my god, thats a frightning model. Even as a cold lover, that is extreeeeeme

I would be extremely grateful if someone could explain why that is good for cold lovers?

[bobbydog]

Excellent question.....and I don't know.

This'll do for Xmas Eve

BFTP

if only... even the chart itself looks "christmassy"

[bobbydog]

I would be extremely grateful if someone could explain why that is good for cold lovers?

read back through the posts - they have

[joggs]

Can i just say this is a fun thread and thanks for peeps contributing and notching the excitement levels up. But i hope everybody takes it lighthearted for now?!?!?! I`d just like to say alot of bad winters/mild winters more often than not seem to come along in clumps and just for the record im going to release a monthly forecast on here starting back end of oct(with explanations). Now dont get me wrong im an amatuer weather fanatic and receive alot of banter/stick from fam n friends but i have called the last 4 winters right and the last 3 summers. There is loads of far more Knowledgable peeps on here who do a great job and i appreciate their efforts but im finally going to take a plunge with a serious(for you all to see) forecast

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Is this the signs of a hand waving goodbye to El Nino?

BFTP

[bobbydog]

Is this the signs of a hand waving goodbye to El Nino?

BFTP

talk to the hand....

[SMU]

To the person asking about record cold-

The conditions set to break records take around a week to manifest- but can come after longer periods of time

heres the conditions from Dec 30th 1995

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1995/archivesnh-1995-12-30-0-0.png

The cold arrived in the norh around the 23rd-

The Key ingredients are-

* Snow cover-- You will never beat a record without snowcover- a good solid covering of snow will change the albedo of the land it covers & the snow absorbs the sunlight & heat- quickly releasing it at night-

* Clear skies-- To ensure the absolute minima is reached the warmth released from the ground needs to escape & cloud acts as a blanket - so clear skies is a must-

* Low wind & turbulence- Wind creates friction & warmth- when winds are dead calm & still temps will plummet.

* Dry air- Dry air supports fast lapse rates the higher & allows to cool faster because its less saturated--

* cold uppers are not essential however sub -5c ideally.

* Embedded cold- ^ if you have the above conditions you wont break cold records overnight- it needs to be a sustained curve, so for somewhere it would be something like this

Day 1 0c Max -5c Min, Day 2 -2c Max -8c Min , Day 3 -5c Max -13c min, Day 4 -8c Max -17c Min, Day 5 -12c Max -20c Min-

Record Day -17c max -27c min

Unless the above conditions are satisfied for a good 4-6 days you wont beat a record & that didnt happen in the big winters....

The key time in the day for temp drop in these situations is 4pm- 7pm, you can see movement of 10c degrees or more in the right conditions in these hours-

after the late evening the rate of change slows but continues over night-

Absolute minima is often around 7am just as the sun rises....

S

[joggs]

Is this the signs of a hand waving goodbye to El Nino?

BFTP

Could well be BFTP but to be honest i dont thin k its going to aid a cold 1st half of winter at mo! I`ll present my thoughts/findings later this month. REGARDS

[feb1991blizzard]

I have to say that i cannot believe we did not smash the record around here in dec 2010, the amount of times that the MAX only got up to -5 and then plummeted as soon as the sun went in, some nights it was already down to -15 by 10 or 11 oclock at night, but then when i looked again at 6 in the moring it was still -15, there was no reason for it not to go further, no cloud and very still with a stonkingly extensive and reasonably deep snow cover, i wonder if the BBC / MET OFFICE and some other sites computers / themometers were broken or the weather station people just fell asleep on duty or something!!!

I mean some nights even Oldham town centre and Huddersfield town Centre were showing double digit -s by 7pm, so should be even lower rurally.

Edited October 4, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Gavin Hannah]

I have to say that i cannot believe we did not smash the record around here in dec 2010, the amount of times that the MAX only got up to -5 and then plummeted as soon as the sun went in, some nights it was already down to -15 by 10 or 11 oclock at night, but then when i looked again at 6 in the moring it was still -15, there was no reason for it not to go further, no cloud and very still with a stonkingly extensive and reasonably deep snow cover, i wonder if the BBC / MET OFFICE and some other sites computers / themometers were broken or the weather station people just fell asleep on duty or something!!!

I mean some nights even Oldham town centre and Huddersfield town Centre were showing double digit -s by 7pm, so should be even lower rurally.

Ah I remember those days with fondness, Experiencing temps of -20 was most likely a once in a life time experience, or twice in the case of those back to back winters. Here's hoping for a third time.!

Edited October 4, 2012 by IBringTheHammer

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I have to say that i cannot believe we did not smash the record around here in dec 2010, the amount of times that the MAX only got up to -5 and then plummeted as soon as the sun went in, some nights it was already down to -15 by 10 or 11 oclock at night, but then when i looked again at 6 in the moring it was still -15, there was no reason for it not to go further, no cloud and very still with a stonkingly extensive and reasonably deep snow cover, i wonder if the BBC / MET OFFICE and some other sites computers / themometers were broken or the weather station people just fell asleep on duty or something!!!

I mean some nights even Oldham town centre and Huddersfield town Centre were showing double digit -s by 7pm, so should be even lower rurally.

Places high up and hill tops (not mountain tops) are actually warmer at night than lower places in frost hollow valley locations like here, hilly ground generally get more snow but temps are held up by a few degrees at night. Oldham town centre is on a hill top (about 200-240m) so the cold air filters away from the town centre into places like here a few miles away. That's why you'll see places like Altnaharra which is of a similar height to here that gets frosts more often.

See here: http://www.weatheron...rost-hollow.htm

Edited October 4, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley