Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[I remember Atlantic 252]

be great to have a winter like 2010, 24th Nov-27th Dec, not really winter 2010/2011, for me as was mainly mild after new year

to me the real winter is from around 15th Nov to about 5th Jan, after Xmas and new year, seems to be milder and Spring on the way

[Cloud 10]

These are different to the ones posted a few posts above.

Are these the latest outputs?

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies

The ones i posted are from the link above and i hope are the latest ones.

The ones posted further up the page seem to be from a month ago?

[AWD]

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies

The ones i posted are from the link above and i hope are the latest ones.

The ones posted further up the page seem to be from a month ago?

Aaaah yeah, so they are. The ones Summer Sun posted were published in early Sept.

Nice to see the latest update trend towards a cooler outlook, for whatever its worth anyway.

Thanks for that!

[cooling climate]

Blizzard conditions affected Hertfordshire on the 18th or 19th of February 1996 although

after 50 mins to an hour the conditions moderated somewhat.

Tottenham were also playing at home that night with an orange ball but conditions

became so bad the game was abandoned.

[Snowy Easterlies]

be great to have a winter like 2010, 24th Nov-27th Dec, not really winter 2010/2011, for me as was mainly mild after new year

to me the real winter is from around 15th Nov to about 5th Jan, after Xmas and new year, seems to be milder and Spring on the way

Real winter starts on the 15th Nov ? thats a bit early, there are still leaves on the trees around here in some years in mid Nov, in most years it don't snow on low ground in the south in November, Nov 2010 was rare. February will always be more winter like than November despite the strengthening sun, i think its all down to psychology, in November you are getting ready for winter, in feb you are getting ready for spring, i can recall quite a few snow events here in Feb

[Gavin Hannah]

Latest IMS chart in the Snow and Ice thread showing a lovely splurge of white stuff on the east of Europe over the past 24 hours.

[Summer Sun]

Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks: CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies

The ones i posted are from the link above and i hope are the latest ones.

The ones posted further up the page seem to be from a month ago?

Good spot it seems that some have been updated and some like your charts have been

I have removed the charts now to avoid confusion

Edited October 5, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Interitus]

Real winter starts on the 15th Nov ? thats a bit early, there are still leaves on the trees around here in some years in mid Nov, in most years it don't snow on low ground in the south in November, Nov 2010 was rare.

Indeed one of the unusual features of Nov 2010 was a layer of leaves lying on snow.

[summer blizzard]

http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/why-are-winter-outlooks-for-el-nino-so.html

Interesting assessment of El Nino on winter.

[Methuselah]

Blizzard conditions affected Hertfordshire on the 18th or 19th of February 1996 although

after 50 mins to an hour the conditions moderated somewhat.

Tottenham were also playing at home that night with an orange ball but conditions

became so bad the game was abandoned.

The way we were playing back then, we should have used an orange ball every week. And, for benefit our defence, it could have done with having a bell inside, too!

[Bristawl Si]

I remember Feb 2009 very well. One of the few occasions when Bristol done very well compared to other urban areas in the West.

Caused mayhem on the roads as the council were unprepared for such heavy falls. We even featured on the national news as one of the worst hit urban areas. I think that is about as good as I will realistically see in Bristol.

Blizzards in Bristol:

New Years Eve 1978, followed by a couple more in Jan 1979

December 1981

Mid-Jan 1987 - can't remember the exact date

If not technically blizzards pretty damn close imo.

[Aaron]

Real winter starts on the 15th Nov ? thats a bit early, there are still leaves on the trees around here in some years in mid Nov, in most years it don't snow on low ground in the south in November, Nov 2010 was rare. February will always be more winter like than November despite the strengthening sun, i think its all down to psychology, in November you are getting ready for winter, in feb you are getting ready for spring, i can recall quite a few snow events here in Feb

Yes, that is far too early for winter as it is still pretty mild for the most part, snow is not at all likely until December, and is most likely in January and February.

[feb1991blizzard]

Real winter starts on the 15th Nov ? thats a bit early, there are still leaves on the trees around here in some years in mid Nov, in most years it don't snow on low ground in the south in November, Nov 2010 was rare. February will always be more winter like than November despite the strengthening sun, i think its all down to psychology, in November you are getting ready for winter, in feb you are getting ready for spring, i can recall quite a few snow events here in Feb

I can see where your coming from but its also about location because really in your location if you want proper snow then its got to be via a decent blocking pattern, preferably a scandinavian high, and february is the most likely month to deliver that, wheras for the North West and particularly Scotland, zonal conditions, which November is generally the king of, can produce decent snow events.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, that is far too early for winter as it is still pretty mild for the most part, snow is not at all likely until December, and is most likely in January and February.

Meant really the feel of Xmas approaching, by mid Nov, its dark at 4pm, snow is possible at low levels, Snow maybe more likely ih Jan and Feb, but here on lowish ground after mid Jan, it will thaw quicker

different up north 300m of course

[Snowy Easterlies]

Snow in early feb will still stick around, its usually after mid feb when the sun starts gaining strength rapidly, its still get dark at about 5pm in early feb, and daylight at 7 30 am

plus although it gets dark at 4 or 4:30 in November, it is also light at around 7am for most of the month, esp in england, as the clocks go back, so not much difference between November and early feb really in terms of daylight hours,

What about snow in the USA, their latitude is more south than us so how does snow stick around there ?

Edited October 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nov feels more winter though, especially with the model thread etc, winter forecasts, and lots of snow opportunities to come, and Xmas just around the corner,

[Summer Sun]

Snow in early Feb will still stick around, its usually after mid Feb when the sun starts gaining strength rapidly, its still get dark at about 5pm in early Feb, and daylight at 7 30 am

plus although it gets dark at 4 or 4:30 in November, it is also light at around 7am for most of the month, esp in England, as the clocks go back, so not much difference between November and early Feb really in terms of daylight hours,

I always find November to January is best for old and snow, by February the sun is starting to get stronger and higher again

By February the days also gain rapidly for example in Newcastle the daylight hours on the 1st are around 8h 46m but by the 28th its around 10h 41m and temperatures in February have often got well in to the teens during the past few years with the highest been 16.1c

2010 was an exception but that was a cold February that year nation wide

Edited October 5, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Gavin Hannah]

The Xmas markets coming to town for me, is when it starts to feel like winter and Christmas are on the way properly.

[Snowy Easterlies]

I always find November to January is best for old and snow, by February the sun is starting to get stronger and higher again

By February the days also gain rapidly for example in Newcastle the daylight hours on the 1st are around 8h 46m but by the 28th its around 10h 41m

yeah i did say after mid feb its a rapid change, but it snowed here in early feb in 2009 and it didn't melt much apart from main roads and roofs, in early november the days are still about 10 hours long, so snow might melt then, but i wouldn't know as snow around here in early november is rare as hen's teeth

for an example the length of day between sunrise and sunset in london on the 25th of november is 8hrs 25m and on the 5th of feb its 9hrs 21mins, so only about an hour difference, not much really, anyway it all changes with various dates between the 2 months

the point is though its likely to be far colder in feb than november due to lag effect, so more chance of snow in feb, regardless of how early it gets dark in november,

like i get a lot of frosts in april when people think it should be warm, but in october i rarely get frosts, when people think it should be cold cos it gets dark early, again lag effect comes into play

Also Gavin it can be 18c in november under the right synoptics, i prey to god that it don't happen though

Edited October 5, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Aaron]

Meant really the feel of Xmas approaching, by mid Nov, its dark at 4pm, snow is possible at low levels, Snow maybe more likely ih Jan and Feb, but here on lowish ground after mid Jan, it will thaw quicker

different up north 300m of course

Yet here on low ground I think the total opposite - snow will last a lot longer in January and early February than December. If the temperature is below freezing anyway then the effects of the sun will be mitigated.

Maybe if snow fell in December it may last longer with above freezing temperatures, but snow is much less common in December, it's the only winter month where there have been instances of no snow at all that I can recall (2 last decade).

Edited October 5, 2012 by Aaron

[Catacol]

be great to have a winter like 2010, 24th Nov-27th Dec, not really winter 2010/2011, for me as was mainly mild after new year

to me the real winter is from around 15th Nov to about 5th Jan, after Xmas and new year, seems to be milder and Spring on the way

Eh??? Winter over on 5th Jan? Ridiculous. Last half of Jan and 1st half of Feb is often the deepest part of our winter.

Edited October 5, 2012 by Catacol_Highlander

[feb1991blizzard]

I must be lucky, during the course of my lifetime, having lived in a few different locations, i can honestly say that i have experienced corkers in every month from November to march, and this year in April, i experienced something even by those met office definitions on previous pages, which must be described as being close to a blizzard, or certainly blizzard conditions for a short while.

[March Blizzard]

I think some people tend to exaggerate the sun's strength in late winter, there is often talk of "Strong sun" and "long days" in February and March but when you compare the length of days early-mid Feb is on par with the last few days of October/early November and even the first 11 days of March are on par with early October. However, you very rarely hear of a strong sun when these months are discussed. I think it's psychological, in Feb/March the days are getting longer and (sometimes) warmer which after such a long period of darkness gives the impression the days are longer than they actually are. It's easy to underestimate the length of a day at a time when you know they are getting shorter as much as it is to overestimate the length of one at a time when you know they are getting longer.

[summer blizzard]

Yet here on low ground I think the total opposite - snow will last a lot longer in January and early February than December. If the temperature is below freezing anyway then the effects of the sun will be mitigated.

Maybe if snow fell in December it may last longer with above freezing temperatures, but snow is much less common in December, it's the only winter month where there have been instances of no snow at all that I can recall (2 last decade).

Interestingly i worked out that in the past 12 years for my location (and i presume yours being only about 10 miles away) 8/12 years saw the first snow between 18th November-9th December, 2000 and 2008 saw October snowfall and 2002 and 2006 saw no December snowfall.

[feb1991blizzard]

I think some people tend to exaggerate the sun's strength in late winter, there is often talk of "Strong sun" and "long days" in February and March but when you compare the length of days early-mid Feb is on par with the last few days of October/early November and even the first 11 days of March are on par with early October. However, you very rarely hear of a strong sun when these months are discussed. I think it's psychological, in Feb/March the days are getting longer and (sometimes) warmer which after such a long period of darkness gives the impression the days are longer than they actually are. It's easy to underestimate the length of a day at a time when you know they are getting shorter as much as it is to overestimate the length of one at a time when you know they are getting longer.

Agreed, and the notion that because its March the first that the weather suddenly flicks a switch and an easterly cannot deliver is nonsense as well.