Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[cheeky_monkey]

I have family based in Cochrane, just outside Calgary and heard it was 27°C on Saturday then it snowed Tuesday night. Is that normal for Alberta? I do know they can get some crazy weather out there..Last time i was there, there was a twister just outside of Sundre.(30 Jul 2010)

in fact it was 27c on monday then snowed tuesday night into wednesday....no its not unusual often happens especially so in spring.

[Supacell]

I'm pretty sure the conditions in April 2012 snowfall were approaching blizzard conditions, at least above 300m. It depends what altitude you class as 'low level', but remember that there are plenty of populated places above this altitude, just nothing bigger than medium sized towns.

Absolutely, I was living at 350m near Bradford where there is a high population and there were definitely blizzard conditions on the 4th April 2012. I cannot recall when I last saw a proper blizzard on lower ground. I have seen, many times, the typical 15 minute March/April wintry shower type affair with gusting winds and snow but the snow only settling temporarily before the sun comes out again. However, for those 15 minutes or so you have proper blizzard conditions on low ground

[Jane Louise]

I have family based in Cochrane, just outside Calgary and heard it was 27°C on Saturday then it snowed Tuesday night. Is that normal for Alberta? I do know they can get some crazy weather out there..Last time i was there, there was a twister just outside of Sundre.(30 Jul 2010)

Hi Alex,

Could you please enter your location in your profile settings.Thank you.

[Weather-history]

Question to those of you with a good memory,

When was the last time a low level area in the UK had blizzard conditions? (and by that i mean not a gust of wind with falling snow),

rather the true classifcation of sustained winds over 35mph, and visibility reduced to 400 metres (well thats what wikipedia says! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard)

I have never seen a blizzard in the true definition sense and I suspect a lot of people haven't.

Edited October 5, 2012 by Weather-history

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I have never seen a blizzard in the true definition sense and I suspect a lot of people haven't.

Too late in year for me, I only had wet snow

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just took a look at the 12z CFS from yesterday!

Did somebody place the model in the freezer and let Madden tamper with it?

Immense cold, reload after reload and the Jet Stream last seen somewhere near Tangiers!

Please weather Gods............please let it be true. Maybe we could sacrifice something to them? Steve M perhaps?

I think this is one of my favourite charts!

Looking wet in Spain!

Edited October 5, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Winter 2012/3.....v early musings and v basic idea from me at this stage. Dec average to above, Jan at or just below average, Feb below to well below.

Not seeing a mega start. This sea ice, how much of a factor will it be, also where is ENSO heading?......

Just want to add that I don't see 'zonal city' at all hence the call for two months to be average either just above or below.

BFTP

Edited October 5, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Suburban Streamer]

Winter 2012/3.....v early musings and v basic idea from me at this stage. Dec average to above, Jan at or just below average, Feb below to well below.

Not seeing a mega start. This sea ice, how much of a factor will it be, also where is ENSO heading?......

BFTP

So pretty much the same as rjs early thoughts...

[UV-RAY]

Winter 2012/3.....v early musings and v basic idea from me at this stage. Dec average to above, Jan at or just below average, Feb below to well below.

Not seeing a mega start. This sea ice, how much of a factor will it be, also where is ENSO heading?......

BFTP

Hi Fred, I'm seeing winter arriving early from mid November ( yes I know it's still Autumn ) how long for though I've no idea, but with ENSO struggling to make it out of neutral gear and solar output remaining very low, coupled with the SST profiles, then we could see a lengthy cold spell developing early. Off course I could also be talking gobbledygook and we end up with the Atlantic train throughout this period.

One thing which I find kind of backs up my wild stab in the dark is the MetO probability charts, they are consistent with a blocking pattern to our NW.

Edited October 5, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[garbagebags]

I'm going with you vogan. I think the NAO will flip pos through November and neg halfway through Dec.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So pretty much the same as rjs early thoughts...

RJS is more pronounced [and probabaly more accurate] and I always go colder than Roger:-))). I just think this low ice will put a spanner in the works somehow and the ENSO signal is far from set too so things could well change. I an tentative but think January could be a decent month too. Rest assured though if Jan is very mobile and mild it will IMO affect any chance of a good Feb. My thoughts have always been that unless cold shows its hand by the last week of Jan in any winter [at latest] then more or less forget any lengthy spell of decent cold and snow.

My thoughts have changed, I was looking for a cold Dec but am backing away from that at present.....

BFTP

Edited October 5, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Fred, I'm seeing winter arriving early from mid November ( yes I know it's still Autumn ) how long for though I've no idea, but with ENSO struggling to make it out of neutral gear and solar output remaining very low, coupled with the SST profiles, then we could see a lengthy cold spell developing early. Off course I could also be talking gobbledygook and we end up with the Atlantic train throughout this period.

One thing which I find kind of backs up my wild stab in the dark is the MetO probability charts, they are consistent with a blocking pattern to our NW.

Interesting re Nov...BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Anyone else twddling their thumbs 'willing' time forward to the array of forecasts likely to come out?

BFTP

Edited October 5, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

I have never seen a blizzard in the true definition sense and I suspect a lot of people haven't.

This is a perfect example of how for so many years my area missed out on so much great winter weather - arrrgghhh the pain! It was unbearable at times seeing the north of the UK reveling in such delights! Thankfully, with the recent shift in weather we seem to be faring a lot better

[syed2878]

blimy only 5th october and we r in part3 page 5 for w2012-2013. I havent seen a true blizerd though i like to c 1.

[gottolovethisweather]

Anyone else twddling their thumbs 'willing' time forward to the array of forecasts likely to come out?

BFTP

Perhaps, but the later they are issued, I do feel the forecast trend will be nearer the reality. I hope that makes sense, i.e. those that rush through life, learn nothing, those who take their time, observing along the way, learn a whole lot more.

Me, I just learn from simply visiting this wonderful thread and listening to everyone's views.

Edited October 5, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

i think we may have to wait a while before we see encouraging signs for winter. it has been mentioned that early siberian snow cover is important to the set up as we head towards winter. as it stands now, high pressure is looking to dominate the areas we need for snow cover for the next ten days or so, with little snowfall forecast http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Russia

on the plus side, it will allow temperatures to drop in these areas, so they will be 'primed' for any snowfall.

the good news is, that there are tentative signs for the snow to arrive where we need it, by the last ten days of the month.

the GFS is fairly consistent, even into FI

by the end of the month, we could well see winter taking a hold in eastern europe. another plus is that a raging atlantic does not appear to be forecast any time soon but i reckon it will be november before we have any indication as to which way things will go

but then again, what do i know?....

[chionomaniac]

Anyone else twiddling their thumbs 'willing' time forward to the array of forecasts likely to come out?

BFTP

Yes, but with good reason. I think that there is a certain amount of caution until we know how the stratosphere will behave. Yes we can make a basic forecast on how we think the stratosphere will behave, but will have a better tropospheric forecast when the autumnal strat cooling phase is further down the line.

[bluearmy]

strong fi ens signal for the core on the vortex to transfer from n canada towards n siberia by mid month. that should encorage snowcover in siberia

[BornFromTheVoid]

i think we may have to wait a while before we see encouraging signs for winter. it has been mentioned that early siberian snow cover is important to the set up as we head towards winter. as it stands now, high pressure is looking to dominate the areas we need for snow cover for the next ten days or so, with little snowfall forecast http://www.weather-f...com/maps/Russia

on the plus side, it will allow temperatures to drop in these areas, so they will be 'primed' for any snowfall.

the good news is, that there are tentative signs for the snow to arrive where we need it, by the last ten days of the month.

the GFS is fairly consistent, even into FI

by the end of the month, we could well see winter taking a hold in eastern europe. another plus is that a raging atlantic does not appear to be forecast any time soon but i reckon it will be november before we have any indication as to which way things will go

but then again, what do i know?....

Nothing wrong with little snow cover in early October, infact, it has quite a silver lining!

Remember, the most important thing for our winter prospects and a -ve AO is the rate of increase of Eurasian snow cover from the beginning to the end of October (especially south of 60N). So a below average first half, ramping up during the second half of the month is actually ideal!

[Interitus]

Nothing wrong with little snow cover in early October, infact, it has quite a silver lining!

Remember, the most important thing for our winter prospects and a -ve AO is the rate of increase of Eurasian snow cover from the beginning to the end of October (especially south of 60N). So a below average first half, ramping up during the second half of the month is actually ideal!

As an example of this, here is a previous forecast from Judah Cohen, the originator of this SAI theory -

[bobbydog]

Nothing wrong with little snow cover in early October, infact, it has quite a silver lining!

Remember, the most important thing for our winter prospects and a -ve AO is the rate of increase of Eurasian snow cover from the beginning to the end of October (especially south of 60N). So a below average first half, ramping up during the second half of the month is actually ideal!

thats how i see it as well. if the vortex ends up over siberia by then (which signs are pointing to) thats exactly what could happen.

then for the march of the white stuff towards us!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes, but with good reason. I think that there is a certain amount of caution until we know how the stratosphere will behave. Yes we can make a basic forecast on how we think the stratosphere will behave, but will have a better tropospheric forecast when the autumnal strat cooling phase is further down the line.

Indeed C, but still twiddling thumbs...:-)BFTP

[johnholmes]

I'm going with you vogan. I think the NAO will flip pos through November and neg halfway through Dec.

and your reason please?

[Andy_]

I have never seen a blizzard in the true definition sense and I suspect a lot of people haven't.

That's what annoys me about the tabloid newspapers (unopposed to the rest of the rubbish they publish), they claim blizzards are on the way every year even when it's forecast snow tomorrow, but in fact it's almost never blizzards in their real classification.

I'm sure if there was a true blizzard in a low lying city location it would cause some havoc.