Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[Andy_]

Question to those of you with a good memory,

When was the last time a low level area in the UK had blizzard conditions? (and by that i mean not a gust of wind with falling snow),

rather the true classifcation of sustained winds over 35mph, and visibility reduced to 400 metres (well thats what wikipedia says! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard)

[ZONE 51]

Is this the signs of a hand waving goodbye to El Nino?

BFTP

What's all that yellow and orange up around greenland, it looks the same as Oct 2010 and far warmer then last year..

[SMU]

The Sausage High-

For reference this Winter Any references to the sausage highs will mean +Ve pressure in the iceland region - at a certain angle spreading back towards cananda-

The sausage high can allow for copious amounts of snow

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1961/archivesnh-1961-12-23-0-0.png

S

[stewfox]

Here's a question I've been pondering for a while, why is it that the record cold temperatures don't occur during the coldest winters like 47, 62/63 when the perfect conditions were prevalent (prolonged cold and deep snow). Is it just a case of the synoptics that occurred in Dec 95 and Jan 82 didn't during the big winters or did these just beat records set back then?

Jan 82 wasn't a short cold snap and as explained here the set up gave us some record low temps. Because UK is a Island surrounded by water I guess small shifts in a high/ wind direction can make the difference between a max 0c or max -6c in a cold period prolonged or otherwise. Just need snow cover and right synoptics

http://www.weatheron...ld-and-snow.htm

Edited October 4, 2012 by stewfox

[feb1991blizzard]

Places high up and hill tops (not mountain tops) are actually warmer at night than lower places in frost hollow valley locations like here, hilly ground generally get more snow but temps are held up by a few degrees at night. Oldham town centre is on a hill top (about 200-240m) so the cold air filters away from the town centre into places like here a few miles away. That's why you'll see places like Altnaharra which is of a similar height to here that gets frosts more often.

See here: http://www.weatheron...rost-hollow.htm

I never knew Altnaharra was that low, i thought it was right up in the Scottish Highlands, never thought of it like that, i know there is more to it than just seeing the coldest place in the day and assuming it will be also at night, but i was just supprised by its almost predictability that it would be the same at midnight as at moring, you live and learn though i suppose.

Ah I remember those days with fondness, Experiencing temps of -20 was most likely a once in a life time experience, or twice in the case of those back to back winters. Here's hoping for a third time.!

Did you not reach -20 in Dec 1995 also?

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I never knew Altnaharra was that low, i thought it was right up in the Scottish Highlands, never thought of it like that, i know there is more to it than just seeing the coldest place in the day and assuming it will be also at night, but i was just supprised by its almost predictability that it would be the same at midnight as at moring, you live and learn though i suppose.

Apparently the weather station there is located at 81m asl.

[Gavin Hannah]

Did you not reach -20 in Dec 1995 also?

Too young to remember... Lol.

[Polar Maritime]

I hope we don't get a "Solar Sausage" this winter.....

[legritter]

Anybody want to look at the first blast of cold to my knowledge in canada ,if you type in Winnipeg Web CAMS AND SCROLL DOWN you will see snow in STEINBACH Winnipeg AND FURTHER DOWN THE LIST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN Kimmirut also a few other locations ,sorry about my computer talk but only a learner .odviously areas further north probably had some last month but thought it could be interesting for wetting the appetite .bring it on i say ,but enjoy ,a flake of snow is MAGICAL ,it brings out the wolf in me .cheers Legritter

[mpkio2]

Hey everyone!

Even though I joined this site back in january,I'mstillanewmemberas this is my very first post. Like most of you,Iam looking forward to a very cold and very snowy winter(Unlike the dissapointedmild yucky winter weexperienced last year - gusse you can't win them all, eh?).

I've been reading all posts from theprevious "Winter 2012/2013" threads (Well done everyone for getting to a third thread -and it's only October! )and I have enjoyed reading everyones predictions,hopes,wants and theories of what this winter may bring us - many smart people on here with some very interesting articles - GP, chinco just to name a few.

I see we have some favourable synoptics on our side this timeround (Unlikelast year aroundthis time). I wasjust woundering if anyone could update meon where every thing stands thus far- is QBO still going east? Still in ENSO? NAO and AO state? What about MetO probability charts - still for a colder than average winter?

Also, I know the CFS chops and cahnges on evry run,but I hope the weather gods are on our side this year and something like the CFS 12z 3r oct run comes off! That would be an awesome early winter!

Another thing,the CFS had been pointing out on almost every run that the UK will be under a lowpressure system around the 4th-8th oct- it came true. Just to point out that it's allabout looking for trends in this model.

[flysurfer]

keep up the good work steve murr... love reading your posts...

[ZONE 51]

Could someone provide a link to sea surface temperatures from the last 5 years or maybe 10 years? Thanks.

I want to do some overlayers.

Edited October 4, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[J10]

Could someone provide a link to sea surface temperatures from the last 5 years or maybe 10 years? Thanks.

I want to do some overlayers.

UNISYS do historic charts, I'll try and find the link.

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

The anomoly ones are the ones of more use.

[johnholmes]

& the snow absorbs the sunlight & heat- quickly releasing it at night-

this is wrong Steve, the snow reflects the sunlight by day it does not absorb it to any marked degree which is why snow cover helps keep temperatures down by day?

[cheeky_monkey]

Anybody want to look at the first blast of cold to my knowledge in canada ,if you type in Winnipeg Web CAMS AND SCROLL DOWN you will see snow in STEINBACH Winnipeg AND FURTHER DOWN THE LIST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN Kimmirut also a few other locations ,sorry about my computer talk but only a learner .odviously areas further north probably had some last month but thought it could be interesting for wetting the appetite .bring it on i say ,but enjoy ,a flake of snow is MAGICAL ,it brings out the wolf in me .cheers Legritter

i have already had snow in Calgary yesterday

[Roger J Smith]

Yes, absolutely right, snow cover reflects heat in the daytime. A really good example of this was found in my own observations at a site roughly 100 miles north of Toronto. There was snow on the night of Sept 30-Oct 1, 1974 which was very unusual for the location, probably the only occurrence of a snow cover that persisted for 24 hours as it did throughout October 1, 1974. The maximum temperature that I recorded was only 2 C over this thin snow cover. Climate stations a few miles away where snow did not fall had max temps of 7-9 C. Overnight lows were more similar as the air mass mixed, but snow cover does generally depress temperatures by about 5 degrees in my experience, compared to what would be recorded with no snow. Here in Vancouver BC it is almost impossible for the atmosphere to sustain sub-freezing daytime temperatures without a snow cover, it almost always gets back up to 1-2 C when the ground is bare, no matter how cold the nights may be.

[garbagebags]

Snow reflects sunlight yes, but it's also a fantastic insulator, so doesn't tend to get as cold as bare ground. So although it helps in getting temps down, it doesnt help to the degree you might think.

[Gael_Force]

Just a point about posting meteociel CFS charts, when you are posting a chart off the latest run on the 9 month CFS, instead of doing that, look which run it is (colour coded at bottom of page), then click the corresponding run (top centre right) then copy and paste as this wont change as soon as the next run comes out, or it certainly lasts longer anyway, this way we wont get comments like 'Stonking easterly brings -20 uppers into london' next to a massive Bartlett!!!

It's much simpler to just mouse over the timescale that you want and then click on the wee floppy disc symbol to the top right of page - this saves your chosen chart with link provided in a new window.

[ZONE 51]

UNISYS do historic charts, I'll try and find the link.

http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/

The anomoly ones are the ones of more use.

Thankyou.

[Zakos]

Snow reflects sunlight yes, but it's also a fantastic insulator, so doesn't tend to get as cold as bare ground. So although it helps in getting temps down, it doesnt help to the degree you might think.

Yes snow-cover will insulate the ground, however it will invariably result in lower surface air temperatures.

[EML Network]

I'm hoping to see more of this during the Winter :-)

[SMU]

sorry yes reflects heat- although it does absorb some - it must do!!

My mistake though!

Steve

[ZONE 51]

Snow must absorb the sunshines heat as it melts. But relecting the heat it is a higher percentage i would think.

I'm thinking how warmth from towns and city's makes a big difference in winter, we always get the lowest temperatures in the countryside for this reason.

Edited October 4, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[CanadaAl]

i have already had snow in Calgary yesterday

I have family based in Cochrane, just outside Calgary and heard it was 27°C on Saturday then it snowed Tuesday night. Is that normal for Alberta? I do know they can get some crazy weather out there..Last time i was there, there was a twister just outside of Sundre.(30 Jul 2010)

[Harve]

Question to those of you with a good memory,

When was the last time a low level area in the UK had blizzard conditions? (and by that i mean not a gust of wind with falling snow),

rather the true classifcation of sustained winds over 35mph, and visibility reduced to 400 metres (well thats what wikipedia says! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blizzard)

I'm pretty sure the conditions in April 2012 snowfall were approaching blizzard conditions, at least above 300m. It depends what altitude you class as 'low level', but remember that there are plenty of populated places above this altitude, just nothing bigger than medium sized towns.