Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[gottolovethisweather]

Not a chart I want to see, I am only 103m asl, in 0ctober, this far south, I hate the rain

Little steps.

[gottolovethisweather]

Out of interest, I have been following the 12z outputs (day-to-day comparisons) for approximately a week now and there is a definite trend towards a cooler excursion, which could largely envelope us all, albeit briefly. Having said that, it is still in deepest FI and we will have to endure a spell of milder/average temperatures beforehand. This will most likely come to fruition from under a high-pressure pattern, so at least, it will be dry.

As ever, looking at these things from a wider perspective helps one unveil any potential patterns or trends on a global scale.

Edited October 6, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

Looking at the NH chart above, it does seem that the main vortex is plumped over northern Siberia and Scandinavia meaning we catch the western edge of it, with the Jet going south for a tropical holiday.. Not a bad place to be if it was Mid December.

Will need to keep an eye on the outputs to see if we can get a trend on this feature.

i wouldnt worry too much about us getting cold or snow any time soon. it may or may not happen... yet...

however, there is definitely a trend for the vortex to move over siberia, which is crucial for snowfall in that area and to set us up for winter.

one step at a time and we appear to be taking a major step in the right direction

[gottolovethisweather]

In order to keep this thread churning over, before the much anticipated 12zs are unleashed upon us. I thought I'd reproduce this post below, which is taken from the very useful Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere thread. This was written in response to an impending cool down over the Northern Hemisphere in general. Enjoy!

As is evident from the model output and in the winter thread, it seems most likely that there will be a good increase in those regions over the next few days as well.

For example, going on current output, this place in central northern Siberia is to expect average or well below temperatures, along with a few days of snow. Nearer to our shores, Murmansk whilst not showing any forecast snowfall is at least showing a much colder trend, from above average to cooler than normal. Unfortunately, the timescale in which my interest lies is currently beyond the 7-day forecast shown above. However, if you look at the 8-14 day forecasts on the same website, they are most fascinating.

Edited October 6, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Deepest FI so no doubt it will be gone soon

Really nice eye candy that just needs to move 50 miles north to reach me.

Edited October 6, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[MrSunshine]

Really nice eye candy that just needs to move 50 miles north to reach me.

Surely you mean 50 miles South, you live in Lincoln!

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Really nice eye candy that just needs to move 50 miles north to reach me.

meaning DaveMac82 that the 1mm of FI snow is south of here near Peterborough

Edited October 6, 2012 by harshwintercoming

[Eskimo]

Really nice eye candy that just needs to move 50 miles north to reach me.

Just doesn't look right, I don't understand how most of the pennies can be under sleet yet that little area near Peterborough has snow. BIN IT.

[Aaron]

Just doesn't look right, I don't understand how most of the pennies can be under sleet yet that little area near Peterborough has snow. BIN IT.

It's in FI, very low detail.

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Just doesn't look right, I don't understand how most of the pennies can be under sleet yet that little area near Peterborough has snow. BIN IT.

If it gets to Lincoln I will make it my screen wallpaper for a week....and then bin it!

[Gavin Hannah]

I never put trust in FI snow chats. Many a time last year I would be on for snow only for it to bugger off by within a few runs. Much the same as last years model outputs lol.

[Jayces]

I never put trust in FI snow chats. Many a time last year I would be on for snow only for it to bugger off by within a few runs. Much the same as last years model outputs lol.

I've learnt from following these forums for the last few winters that snow forecasts should only be relied on if you look outside and it is actually snowing at that moment in time.

It's nce to see all the excitement here but it happens every year and seems to start earlier and earlier.

Everyone wants a 1947 / 1963 it seems except those who have actually experienced it.

Personally i'd be happy with the likes of 2010 / 2011 on a regular basis.

[divadee]

I would love to witness a 62/63 style winter. But more than happy with the thick snow we had here in christchurch on 1/2/3 dec 2010. Just wish we could of had more of it and it lasted longer than 3 days.

[Summer Sun]

Really nice eye candy that just needs to move 50 miles north to reach me.

No need to worry GFS 12z has got shot of that idea to replace it with higher pressure and rain

Edited October 6, 2012 by Summer Sun

[Gavin Hannah]

No need to worry GFS 12z has got shot of that idea to replace it with higher pressure and rain

Isnt the 12Z the most unreliable though? I'll be checking the 06Z tomorrow anyway.

[chionomaniac]

Isnt the 12Z the most unreliable though?

Yes, because FI is far more reliable in the other runs. As if!

[stewfox]

I am more of a reader than a poster on threads such as this and have read with interest all of the posts regarding whether February is colder than November, March than October etc.

On the whole, I agree with what has been said re. strength of the sun and length of daylight but my honest feeling is that; given the right conditions. any month from November through to April can deliver the heaviest snow of a particular winter and that doesn't necessarily mean a single snowy spell in an otherwise mild mucky season.

Although in one of the worst parts of the country for severe snowy spells (North West England) I do have the advantage of altitude and this has probably helped in seeing lying snow in various years from mid October (1983) i believe through to late April (1981)

Even the winter of 1978/79, the only one of the 20th century big three which I was able to witness did not get going until New Year and was at it's most severe in these parts from early February until mid March, something which I believe was the case throughout much of the country.

Jan 79 was the cold month and it ran well into Feb. I think my snowman lasted 49 days with the help of the freezer !

I dont think anyone is suggesting you cant have heavy snowy spells in the months your suggesting ie Nov to April or they can be epic, I think early April 89 (IMBY) was heavy snow all day but it had gone within 1 maybe 2 days max. We also all know how late 47 started.

There shouldn't be a 'debate' re which months are generally colder as we have the stats. March is generally very much colder then October etc

.

Edited October 6, 2012 by stewfox

[Gavin Hannah]

Yes, because FI is far more reliable in the other runs. As if!

Lol, good point.

[Weather Boy]

I've been reading this thread but without posting for now.

It's obvious that the signs, such as they are, are positive for those that would like a cold snowy winter. However, we have been here before when there have been long term indications about a certain season that have proved to be just way off the mark.

My question for those that are more knowledgable than me is as follows: do we have reason to think that with the met offices's new alleged super long-range computer should give us more faith than in previous years? Does this have any impact on CFS output or is it totally independent? Does anyone know about any output of the new Meto computer other than the release of very basic sparse information a couple of weeks ago?

Any help appreciated.

[Met4Cast]

Isnt the 12Z the most unreliable though? I'll be checking the 06Z tomorrow anyway.

This isn't the first "This run isn't showing me what I want, it must be rubbish" post, is it?

[Weather Boy]

I've been reading this thread but without posting for now.

It's obvious that the signs, such as they are, are positive for those that would like a cold snowy winter. However, we have been here before when there have been long term indications about a certain season that have proved to be just way off the mark.

My question for those that are more knowledgable than me is as follows: do we have reason to think that with the met offices's new alleged super long-range computer should give us more faith than in previous years? Does this have any impact on CFS output or is it totally independent? Does anyone know about any output of the new Meto computer other than the release of very basic sparse information a couple of weeks ago?

Any help appreciated.

To put my question more succinctly, is there any reason to take more belief from this coming winter's long term signals, rather than any other (very) long range forecast which, as we know have low chances of success even with the most skilled forecasting and modelling?

[Aaron]

This isn't the first "This run isn't showing me what I want, it must be rubbish" post, is it?

No, that's a frequent occurrence on the Model Output Thread all year.

[bobbydog]

Isnt the 12Z the most unreliable though? I'll be checking the 06Z tomorrow anyway.

no, the 06z is (apparently...) but it has often been said, don't compare each run to the next, compare the same run each day, i.e. 12z to 12z.

forget details in FI, look for trends. though not so good in this run, the trend is still for the vortex to plant itself over siberia and eastern europe, giving (hopefully) a good dumping of snow. we need that for a strong starting point for winter. its a much more important factor than a few snowflakes in october!

[AderynCoch]

Where did you get the St John's record? The record for that place is 18.3C in March according to Environment Canada, unless you are referring to Saint John in New Brunswick.

That's the one: http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2059

Incidentally, the Maritime provinces of Canada look like a good place to spend the winter.

[Met4Cast]

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Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori

If I am in the UK, I am getting ready for a heck of a winter