Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[UV-RAY]

Just out of interest, but has there ever been an Autumn/winter were each month has recorded below average temps?

A wild stab in the dark but I think 1905 was the last time.

[johnholmes]

Yes, indeed. To be honest, I often wonder everyone puts quite so much faith in what the CFS comes-out with, as it would appear we do...If it really were 'that good' it would continually surpass the success-rates of all the other models. thus rendering them all obsolete...

Pete the 'faith' is much the same as with GFS T+06 to T+384, IF it shows what the poster wants!

And as I keep saying, through Sept-Dec last year I saw nothing that converted me to believing CFS, basic or ensemble/V2 ouputs that gave me any trust in its outputs.

I am monitoring the monthly basic charts from UK Met this year to see how their model performs. Its July, August and September temperature anomalies for the European region have been quite consistent. No idea whther it will be right or not but certainly quite consistent.

[Gavin P]

hi Gavin

I am sending you a pm but hope you don't mind me adding this link for folk to have a read of, in the Net Wx Guides

http://forum.netweat...-forecast-snow/

By the way the video is overall a nice and easy to undstand explanation and keeping it simple should help newcomers start to get a grasp of the compexities of predicting snow.

Thanks John. PM recieved.

[UV-RAY]

Pete the 'faith' is much the same as with GFS T+06 to T+384, IF it shows what the poster wants!

And as I keep saying, through Sept-Dec last year I saw nothing that converted me to believing CFS, basic or ensemble/V2 ouputs that gave me any trust in its outputs.

I am monitoring the monthly basic charts from UK Met this year to see how their model performs. Its July, August and September temperature anomalies for the European region have been quite consistent. No idea whther it will be right or not but certainly quite consistent.

I've been following this model since Summer John and overall it's pretty accurate, will the trend continue for this winter.

[johnholmes]

we will all know by 1 March!

[gottolovethisweather]

I've been following this model since Summer John and overall it's pretty accurate, will the trend continue for this winter.

Any chance of a link?

Edited October 7, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[andymusic]

Why, Ohh Why Ohh WHY are people looking for snow in the charts in October ??

Do me one favour ..if you DO see snowfall in a chart deep into FI ,(In October) then try also to look at the dew points for that same day , basic rule of thumb is thus...if you see snowfall being predicted and your dew point is not in the negative values, you'll be sorely disapointed as it won't settle.

Correct me IF I am wrong, but if snow falls and your dew point is above ZERO it'll simply melt the moment it touches the ground, and I can't recall a year when the dew points have remained under Zero in October during daylight hours (with the exception of the mountains and highest peaks in England) ??

To sum up there's very little point in getting excited about the prospect of snow fall in October unless you happen to live on a hut on the top of a Mountain

I live in a bungalow on the top of a mountain - temps have fallen generally here - quote from my fav forecaster in America (and he's been on about 2012/13 winter since forever that it's gonna be a bad one) -

Joe laminate flooriâ€@BigJoelaminate floori

If I am in the UK, I am getting ready for a heck of a winter

shovels, 4x4s at the ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SteveB]

A wild stab in the dark but I think 1905 was the last time.

At least there is an occasion then

Edited October 7, 2012 by SteveB

[Methuselah]

Indeed RP, I've never placed any faith in the CFS no matter what it shows, and the updated 2 version looks no better than the previous one. Until it starts to show a little more consistency then it's one for mild amusement for me.

You're confusing me, 7...I thought you said it has been accurate all summer??

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just out of interest, but has there ever been an Autumn/winter were each month has recorded below average temps?

Do you mean the 6 consecutive months, or could it be the Autumn and previous Winter?

With a quick look through using the 6 consecutive months, 62/63 did it if you use the 61-90 averages, but not its previous 30 year averages, with October catching it out.

September 12.6 (-1.0)

October 10.4 (-0.2)

November 5.5 (-1.1)

December 1.8 (-2.9)

January -2.1 (-5.9)

February -0.7 (-4.5)

50/51 came close using the 1911-40 average, but had an average January.

September 12.9 (-0.7)

October 9.6 (-0.4)

November 5.7 (-0.7)

December 1.2 (-3.3)

January 3.9 (0.0)

February 3.7 (-0.5)

Before that.... 1887/88 I think.

[Terminal Moraine]

Indeed RP, I've never placed any faith in the CFS no matter what it shows, and the updated 2 version looks no better than the previous one. Until it starts to show a little more consistency then it's one for mild amusement for me.

The CFS forecast maps, as opposed to the daily charts, managed to capture the general theme of this summer( drier and warmer than average in the far north west and north and cool and very wet in central and southern England} from as far back as early February. This theme was consistently maintained throughout the late winter and the spring until it materialised in June.

The maps do need to be viewed with caution but persistent trends are worth keeping an eye on. Not completely useless in my view.

Edited October 7, 2012 by Terminal Moraine

[SteveB]

Yes BFTV, six consecutive months. My worry was that it might not have ever happened or even come close. Good to see it has, & even better 62/63 did.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Hi everyone, really enjoying the build up to what should hopefully be a cold and snowy winter. While we wait I thought I'd share some pictures from the December 2010 snowfall to keep us all in the mood!. The depth was very close to a foot here in Grimsby. Lets hope we will all see similar scenes this winter.

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16382-december-2010-026/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16381-december-2010-018/

Edited October 7, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Gavin Hannah]

Hi everyone, really enjoying the build up to what should hopefully be a cold and snowy winter. While we wait I thought I'd share some pictures from the December 2010 snowfal to keep us all in the moodl. The depth was very close to a foot here in Grimsby. Lets hope we will all see similar scenes this winter.

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16378-the-wall-of-snow/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16379-busy-hill/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16380-view-to-lorch-morlich/

These are pictures to get ya in the mood lol. Cairngorm mountain, January 2010.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

These are pictures to get ya in the mood lol. Cairngorm mountain, January 2010.

They are great mate, thanks. Not bad for one of the highest mountain ranges in the UK lol. We should hopefully be seeing similar scenes there in around 4-6 weeks time given a bit of luck.

Edited October 7, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Gavin Hannah]

Hopefully, another picture in the papers of a completely white British Isles come December too.

[divadee]

Hopefully, another picture in the papers of a completely white British Isles come December too.

You mean completely white bar the patch here that stayed green! :-/ I was gutted seeing those pictures.

[Gavin Hannah]

Lol, yea, thats the one I mean.

[Summer Sun]

The Met Office have updated there contingency planners forecast to cover October to December

Temperature

Indications are that October will be slightly colder than the 1981-2010 UK mean, the signal persisting through the October, November & December period. The probability that the UK mean temperature for the October, November & December period will fall into the coldest of our five categories is 20-25%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year, and they are not expected to influence European and UK weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play some part in determining weather over the UK over the next few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association.

Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder, atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern Europe. The consensus from computer model simulations is for surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of the UK during the three month period, especially in October. This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds, increasing the risk of colder than average conditions through the period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/3/A3-plots-temp-OND.pdf

Precipitation

For UK averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities favour below normal rainfall during October. For the period October, November & December as a whole the range of forecasts also favours lower than average rainfall. The probability that UK rainfall for October, November & December will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 15-20%, close to the climatological average. (The 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

The precipitation signal is on average for slightly drier conditions than the climatological mean in both October and the three-month forecast period. Whilst this is consistent with the indications of a weakened westerly, or even easterly, flow, there is a wide variety of predicted patterns in the models and through the three-month period.

The tendency for low pressure to the south of the UK could come to dominate the flow pattern, or there could be stronger flow off the Atlantic, both of which would lead to high rainfall totals. The distribution of model solutions is therefore very broad, with a small risk of some very wet or very dry weather over the period, this being especially noticeable in October.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/g/A3-plots-precip-OND.pdf

[gottolovethisweather]

The Met Office have updated there contingency planners forecast to cover October to December

http://www.metoffice...ts-temp-OND.pdf

http://www.metoffice...-precip-OND.pdf

It just goes to show how difficult this guessing game really is.

[phil nw.]

Interesting that SS-the Met are now considering the effect of lower Ice levels on the NH patterns.

A report i have found here is written by a journalist taken from a paper by an American professor Charles H.Greene.This is yet another scientist suggesting a similar view.

http://arstechnica.c...ing-arctic-ice/

and the record minimum Ice extent seen this year came after this paper

[bluearmy]

noticed that Joe B has tweeted another remark indicating that nw europe is looking at the cold this winter. at least he is consistent !

[Methuselah]

noticed that Joe B has tweeted another remark indicating that nw europe is looking at the cold this winter. at least he is consistent !

Aye, year-in and year-out, we can always rely on Joe!

[sebastiaan1973]

Those MetOffice charts are from 21-9. So there are not new. We have to wait until the 10th of october.

[Andy_]

noticed that Joe B has tweeted another remark indicating that nw europe is looking at the cold this winter. at least he is consistent !

'Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori

When this winter is over, most of northwest Europe, if they are still buying into global warming, wont be. Things look harsh there'

He better be prepared to eat his words on March 1st then if he's wrong!