Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[divadee]

I normally find the earlier shops sell off seasonal goods the greater chance of extreme weather.

Happened to me in 2003. July was a washout here. Popped in homebase and they were selling desk fans for £3 (bargain) reduced from £18 picked up 2 and then we had the full on heatwave!

November 2010. B&Q flogging off sledges cheap think I paid £4 for one that was £12 originally. And we all know what happened early December 2010!

Maybe a good sign lol.

[Marcus_surfer]

Last year was a bitter disappointment here with no snow.

Lets hope for a taste of what we had 2009 or 2010

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/13247-view-from-my-bedroom/

Edited October 8, 2012 by Marcus_surfer

[Suburban Streamer]

Hmm. I wonder where he got that from.....

Further discussion on linked papers there as well!

Thanks chiono I had missed that.

Tut tut to matt Hugo for not linking to netweathers strat thread....

[Eugene]

Not sure why there is so much excitement over a blocking high to our northeast developing in mid October, way too early for cold snowy easterlies, from mid November much better .

[Alan Medlock Valley]

There's been much more spiders this year than last coming in our house - not sure if they know something we don't haha

[Rocheydub]

Not sure why there is so much excitement over a blocking high to our northeast developing in mid October, way too early for cold snowy easterlies, from mid November much better .

You are of course correct, but it will help build up a cold pool for us to tap into.

[Aaron]

Last year was a bitter disappointment here with no snow.

Lets hope for a taste of what we had 2009 or 2010

We had 15cm in 24 hours in February this year. Such snowfall in 24 hours has been rare this last decade, and we only got near a foot of snow in December 2010 due to repeated snowfalls over a period of time.

There's been much more spiders this year than last coming in our house - not sure if they know something we don't haha

Not here - we have escaped the spider invasion with only little ones spotted.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Aaron

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I remember an exceptionally cold end to 2001, and start of 2002, but was snowless here, inversion stuff still good though,

[Skyraker]

@MAttHugo81

Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario

[Summer Sun]

@MAttHugo81

Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario

After all this cold talk this would put a damper on things, all the coldies will just have to hope the ECMWF seasonal update is wrong

Edited October 8, 2012 by Summer Sun

[SnowObsessor90]

@MAttHugo81

Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario

@MAttHugo81

Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario

tbh this is what I was expecting and it given the law of averages it really would not surprise if that ends being the case.

This is based on pure gut feeling and nothing more so please don't hate on me lol

Edited October 8, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Eskimo]

From joy and tribulation to doom and gloom within a few hours, this is why I come back every day because the mood changes on a daily basis. and it makes me laugh.

WINTER IS OVER, ROLL ON SPRING!!!

Edited October 8, 2012 by Perfect Storm

[Weather-history]

Here's some food for thought

Which of these winters had a -ve NAO and which had a +ve NAO?

1990-91 and 1997-98

Answers

1990-91 was +ve and 1997-98 was - ve

Just shows NAO is not the be all end all for cold weather.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/nao_index.tim

Edited October 8, 2012 by Weather-history

[Methuselah]

@MAttHugo81

Latest ECMWF seasonal update is out & for D/J/F the overall pattern would lead to more of a +NAO pattern & little risk of a colder scenario

It must be an outlier! Or is it just responding to the bias of its 'warmist' programmers?

[summer blizzard]

We had 15cm in 24 hours in February this year. Such snowfall in 24 hours has been rare this last decade, and we only got near a foot of snow in December 2010 due to repeated snowfalls over a period of time.

Not here - we have escaped the spider invasion with only little ones spotted.

Fell in 8 hours i believe (1-9) though the first half was crap, the latter half seemed to be on steriods. Even got in the 5-10cm range in the city centre.

[Barry12]

From joy and tribulation to doom and gloom within a few hours, this is why I come back every day because the mood changes on a daily basis. and it makes me laugh.

WINTER IS OVER, ROLL ON SPRING!!!

Can't be, madden said it would be cold!

[Cheshire Freeze]

The news that the long range ECMWF has gone for mild is a big fly in the ointment for those wanting a cold winter; trust me. The resolution of this particular model via recent upgrades etc is second to none, so I believe.

[sebastiaan1973]

Well I have more trust in the UKMO seasonal forecast

http://www.ecmwf.int...ions/Hewson.pdf

Some excellent forecast were made by them. I would say, we have to wait until november. E.g. the snowfall in Siberia is important in october.

[AWD]

This is a quote from Matt Hugo made in the Strat thread of NW a day or two ago;

"The ECMWF seasonal model will be updated in the next few days for October, something which is always worth a look. I'll summarise its output when it becomes available, but to be frank it's failed miserably at times over the last few years, so I'm not a big fan despite it's quite impressive stature in terms of resolution given recent upgrades over the least 6 to 12 months."

Make what you want of that. I'm viewing it as just another possible outcome amongst many at this very early stage. No one or nothing knows what the weather will be like in months ahead, especially in any detail, hence why other models, such as the Meto probability charts and in some respect, the CFS are going for different evolutions. Something's got to give, they all can't be right.

Edited October 8, 2012 by AWD

[Nights King]

The news that the long range ECMWF has gone for mild is a big fly in the ointment for those wanting a cold winter; trust me. The resolution of this particular model via recent upgrades etc is second to none, so I believe.

Lets hope that just like most computer upgrades and software updates it is just very bugy unreliable!

A second poor winter in a row with only a handful of snow days would be terrible!

[SnowObsessor90]

The news that the long range ECMWF has gone for mild is a big fly in the ointment for those wanting a cold winter; trust me. The resolution of this particular model via recent upgrades etc is second to none, so I believe.

The news that the long range ECMWF has gone for mild is a big fly in the ointment for those wanting a cold winter; trust me. The resolution of this particular model via recent upgrades etc is second to none, so I believe.

But he also said:

High pressure is in abundance, but there's a -ve anom near Greenland, whilst pressure is higher to the W & SW. Conflicting signals as usual.

So no crisis, yet...

Edited October 8, 2012 by Anonymous21

[Barry12]

Will be interesting too see what the met forecast charts say when they are updated later this month.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Barry95

[snowstorm445]

After all this cold talk this would put a damper on things, all the coldies will just have to hope the ECMWF seasonal update is wrong

Calm down, it's only October. There are several other long range models to take into consideration, unless that gets in the way of cherry-picking.

Long range models are, in my opinion, not to be relied on anyway. I think their only real purpose is to get people in the mood for the coming season. In terms if weather forecasting, they can be very unreliable.

[January Snowstorm]

Tonights ECM is synoptically stunning!!

I would have thought October would usually be the least expected month for Easterlys.

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

I have just seen an add for snow tires on tv!!!