Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[snowstorm445]

Interesting tweets from Joe B, how you can know what will happen this far out though, so many factors could change.

Edited October 7, 2012 by snowstorm445

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

If you had to choose, would you rather have 10 average winters in a row, or would you like to see a 1947 or 1962/63 type winter this coming winter and then for the next 5 winters it would have to be well above average ?

Having suffered so many mild winters over the last 20 years I would definitely take a belter of a Winter like 62/63 or 47. Reason being that it will always be remembered and go down in history, so to be a part of that would be amazing (well for a coldie like me it would )

[Met4Cast]

If you had to choose, would you rather have 10 average winters in a row, or would you like to see a 1947 or 1962/63 type winter this coming winter and then for the next 5 winters it would have to be well above average ?

1947 or 1962/63 style winter for me too - I think having 3 months of bitter cold and snowfall would see me through 5 years of mild rubbish muck

[Snowy Easterlies]

maybe i should change my question to 10 mild winters instead of 5, then that will be a harder choice lol

we got impatient last winter, moaned a lot about the mild weather, and the winter before that was pretty decent, so 10 years of mild rubbish would be hard to cope with, even after a winter like 47, though we coped in the 90's and most of the 2000s, when it was mild

Edited October 7, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[Jax]

Many of us (myself included) would love to see a winter to remember but I think sadly also many of us (again myself included) find the horror of keeping warm and a waged income a bigger worry (or am I just being a pooper?)

[Paul_1978]

The Met Office have updated there contingency planners forecast to cover October to December

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/3/A3-plots-temp-OND.pdf

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/g/A3-plots-precip-OND.pdf

Those were issued on 21st September. It's 7th October today....

[ZONE 51]

Found this on my searches.. rather cute!

Edited October 7, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Yep,average overall temps. for winter as a whole...

.....it was a quite a severe February in mainland Europe however.

Was a bit nippy in the mainland i.e Same latitude as the other side of the English Channel but reaching on one day a -18C mean and 1800 people recieving hospital treatment http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraines-cold-weather-death-toll-hits-131-121853.html

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UKKK/2012/2/12/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[syed2878]

hi people i dont know if this already been posted on here if i has then mod's plz remove. This pece talk about the arctic ice melt and extreme weather.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L06801, 6 PP., 2012

doi:10.1029/2012GL051000

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes.

Key Points•Enhanced Arctic warming reduces poleward temperature gradient

•Weaker gradient affects waves in upper-level flow in two observable ways

•Both effects slow weather patterns, favoring extreme weather

Jennifer A. Francis

Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA

Stephen J. Vavrus

Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA

　

Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

www.agu.org

[syed2878]

also reading different parts of this forum i beleave this could also have an effect on northern hemisphere winter weather.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)

DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP

and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

4 October 2012

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: Borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions are expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, possibly strengthening during the next few months.

During September 2012, the trend towards El Niño slowed in several key oceanic and atmospheric indicators. However, the Pacific basin reflects borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remained elevated across the Pacific Ocean.

Although anomalies decreased during the month as indicated by weekly index values in the Niño regions. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened., but continued to show large regions of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific.

Interestingly low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the equatorial western Pacific Ocean, which may portend possible strengthening of the subsurface anomalies in the coming months.

Despite these winds, the atmosphere was still largely ENSO-neutral, as reflected by the Southern Oscillation index and near-average upper-level and lower-level winds across much of the Pacific. Tropical convection increased near the Date Line, which is consistent with weak El Niño conditions, but also remained elevated over eastern Indonesia, which is further westward than expected.

Thus, the atmosphere and ocean indicate borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to the past few months, the chance is reduced for El Niño to develop during Northern Hemisphere fall/winter 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast). Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak.

The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

[Krakatoa01]

No because global warming is a scientifically proven theory. There's a difference

So then people who are for GW should stick to forecasting as well?

[Skyraker]

I remember the Feb 1979 event. I was at Primary school and the playground was flooded, only to freeze solid by lunchtime.Walking home with my Mum aged 8, crying because the snow stung so bad and we couldn't see. I remember being genuinely scared that we wouldn't be able to find home (which was only 1/4 mile away). I always wondered when that event happned, thanks for clearing it up.

Thanks for that, John. It means I've seen both 'blizzards' and 'severe blizzards'...January 1982, February 1979, February 2001 and December 1995 instantly spring to mind!

[Radiating Dendrite]

No because global warming is a scientifically proven theory. There's a difference

I admire your bravery!

Good luck

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I remember the Feb 1979 event. I was at Primary school and the playground was flooded, only to freeze solid by lunchtime.Walking home with my Mum aged 8, crying because the snow stung so bad and we couldn't see. I remember being genuinely scared that we wouldn't be able to find home (which was only 1/4 mile away). I always wondered when that event happned, thanks for clearing it up.

too young for that, ive missed most of wildwood's good snow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I remember 78/9 winter, it was a corker with snow drifts up to the tops of shed doors. I lived in Swansea back then....incredible.

BFTP

Edited October 8, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

Those were issued on 21st September. It's 7th October today....

Yes hence why I said they have updated it to cover October to December it only gets updated monthly and that is the update for this month

[Karl83]

Ian replied to one of Joe's earlier tweets in September, all he said was;

Hmmmmm

Hmmmmmm...

[Radiating Dendrite]

Things that make you go mmmmmmmmmmm.......................

[Eskimo]

Count this as a sign if you will. I work on the kiosk at a supermaket part time and recently over the past couple of weeks I have had a lot of sub totals of £19.47 and £19.63. definitely a signal!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Count this as a sign if you will. I work on the kiosk at a supermaket part time and recently over the past couple of weeks I have had a lot of sub totals of £19.47 and £19.63. definitely a signal!

What about £17.40?

[laserguy]

Count this as a sign if you will. I work on the kiosk at a supermaket part time and recently over the past couple of weeks I have had a lot of sub totals of £19.47 and £19.63. definitely a signal!

Do you work at Iceland?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Here's waiting for you getting a series of totals of £19.89...

[Orpingtoniceagedec10]

Hi all , i'm new here , but i've been led to believe that the depth of snow cover in Siberia in Septemer has a big effect on our forthcoming winters . Does anyone know where I can get this information from ? I'm hoping for a craking winter like dec 10 , when here in orpington we had 20 inches of lying snow ! A good portion of this built up through the lake effect from the thames estuary . What are the best conditions for lake effect to occur ? Roll on winter .

Edited October 8, 2012 by Orpingtoniceagedec10

[bobbydog]

Hi all , i'm new here , but i've been led to believe that the depth of snow cover in Siberia in Septemer has a big effect on our forthcoming winters . Does anyone know where I can get this information from ? I'm hoping for a craking winter like dec 10 , when here in orpington we had 20 inches of lying snow ! A good portion of this built up through the lake effect from the thames estuary . What sre the best conditions for lake effect to occur ? Roll on winter .

hi, welcome to the madness! check out this thread - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74146-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-201213/page__st__500#entry2379330 its a current topic of conversation in there.

there's little snow in september, its october onwards really, when it starts to grow.

[stewfox]

maybe i should change my question to 10 mild winters instead of 5, then that will be a harder choice lol

we got impatient last winter, moaned a lot about the mild weather, and the winter before that was pretty decent, so 10 years of mild rubbish would be hard to cope with, even after a winter like 47, though we coped in the 90's and most of the 2000s, when it was mild

I dont really think any type of cold weather will statisfy many now days on here.

Last winter was spectacular cf 1990s /2000s when instead of 9 days of lying snow we only had the odd flake in March. I know a lot of it is IMBY but 3/4 yrs ago everyone would be jumping if we had a sub 3c CET. Now i am sure there will be bitter disappointments and talk of rubbish winter if we have 1c CET but little snow.

-6.7c recorded in scotland tonight in 1907 could we beat that record this evening ? Wont beat 25.6c in Farnborough 1921 thats for sure.

Edited October 8, 2012 by stewfox