Winter 2012 / 2013 Part 3

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No he didn't.

He was pretty much right. Correct me if I'm wrong.

According to my e-mail exchange he never felt last year was gonna a big winter for UK....its this one he touted back then

BFTP

[phil nw.]

Cancelled.

Edited October 9, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Should we hot be looking at Sept.1962 for 62/3 Winter guys?

they are, look closer....

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

Should we hot be looking at Sept.1962 for 62/3 Winter guys?

That '1963' chart is from Sept '62.....says so at the bottom

[Cheshire Freeze]

Both of those Septembers appear to have a cold SST anomaly stretched across the Atlantic W-E, which this year doesn't have. In fact I can't fathom why the warmer than normal sea temps across the N latitudes aren't a worry. Interaction between cold airs and warm seas usually result in increased cycolgenesis? Though I will admit, SST profiles aren't my strong point.

Edited October 9, 2012 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Both of those Septembers appear to have a cold SST anomaly stretched across the Atlantic W-E, which this year doesn't have.

NO MATCH

BFTP

[divadee]

I'm not as knowledgeable as most on here, but these threads are teaching me so much this year!

Keep up the good work!! :-)

[phil nw.]

they are, look closer....

BFTP

Yes misread it Fred and cancelled

[Cheshire Freeze]

NO MATCH

BFTP

With the potential for various factors in opposition to each other (as they invariably will be) I'm wondering if the strat will roll the dice again this year and dictate which way we go forward throughout winter. A cold strat this year would be goodnight Vienna for this winter maybe?

Edited October 9, 2012 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

I'm not as knowledgeable as most on here, but these threads are teaching me so much this year!

Keep up the good work!! :-)

Yep! This thread is the best thread ever, excluding the actual 'potent cold and deep snow immanent' model output discussions and the regional lamposting threads when everywhere's getting paggered of course!!!

[lorenzo]

Great reduction work there Chiono on that paper. Well thought out.

The 62-63 trend saw sunspot numbers trending toward minimum, reaching minimum in 1964. The 68-69 background on an upward trend towards over 100 for the following 3 years. Latest estimate for now 83 for this year. Old Sol fits better with the 68-69 perhaps.

Looking at those 2 winters the old Western Greenland angle crops up again if you roll things down the line a couple of months in respect of SSt.

For those years the central dates for PV events.

1968 28th November Polar Vortex displacement. Atlantic precursor.

1963 28th January Polar Vortex split . Pacific and Atlantic precursor.

Not sure what else is left to throw at this winter. Kitchen Sink anyone..?

[feb1991blizzard]

I'll probably disagree with that John. There are certain factors that are in place now that one can use in their preliminary thoughts as a pointer to which way you think a season can go. And there are pointers that we are still waiting for. These can either detract or reinforce the ideas that we already have.

If we were looking down the barrel of a strong La Nina, John, I don't think that I would be comparing to the previous analog years suggested. Likewise, last year there was uncertaintity at this time until the pointer of the cold stratosphere overrode all others. As we get closer we can refine our thoughts more, but that does not prevent us from using the information that we do have available to us at this time!

I agree with that to a certain extent but no matter what other teleconnections fall into place, am i right in thinking that if the strat dont play ball then a potent cold spell is unlikely, by a potent cold spell i mean most of the country in -10 uppers for a sustained period with good pressure gradient, just as a matter of interest, if the stratosphere starts well below average, statistically what are the chances do you think of them becoming favourable at some point down the line?

[ZONE 51]

The first chart is an overlay of 3 zonal wind charts, 2011.2012 and 1968 which was found to be the nearest match to this year by GP, this was posted earlier in the model output thread.. What i have done is overlay the 3 posted charts and highlighted them in one, you can see how the match from 68's zonal wind mean is similar to this years October chart, this years is quite different from last year.

The next compare is of the 5 day zonal winds, from 2010 and 2012 both October 8th.

Edited October 9, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Boro_andy]

Given the SST's shown above and the factors chino had collated in the previous post above...

Without wishing to bring about a big 'ol ramp..

Would this not indicate a possibly better scenario than 62/63 given the warmer SST's?

Or have I got this the wrong? Complete novice here....

Edit - hasn't realised there was an additional page! Excuse this post if its been covered was referring the the SST'S posted by BFTV or BFTP on previous page.

Excuse the laziness, using my phone!

Edited October 9, 2012 by Boro_andy

[ZONE 51]

With talk on a 1968 similarity i want to add that there were floods in September of that year.

Edited October 10, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

• Winter of 1894–1895
  
• Winter of 1946–1947
  
• Winter of 1962–1963
  
• Winter of 1990–1991
  
• February 2009 snowfall
  
• Winter of 2009–2010
  
• Winter of 2010–11
  
• February 2012
  

Edited October 10, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[feb1991blizzard]

• Winter of 1894–1895
  
• Winter of 1946–1947
  
• Winter of 1962–1963
  
• Winter of 1990–1991
  
• February 2009 snowfall
  
• Winter of 2009–2010
  
• Winter of 2010–11
  
• February 2012
  

You missed one out.

http://en.wikipedia....ngland_snowfall

Edited October 10, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[ZONE 51]

Contact Wiki about it! They could add it to the list on the link here!

http://en.wikipedia....t_Flood_of_1968

The list of weather events is at the bottom of the page on above link.

Edited October 10, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[weather is fun]

Sorry guys but i think we all need to calm down a little bit. I remember seeing all this positivity in 98/99 then again in 2003/2004 and we all no how that ended up.I know were all seeing some signs but lets just remember that we have seen all this before and look how it ended up i.e those dates above. Plus i put about as much faith in joe b as my wifes driving which is very little lol. Yes enjoy the signals and the cold ramps going up a notch but just remeber we have seen this all before so dont try build your hopes up too much because otherwise you could be very very dissapointed come winter. As ive been so many times.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Sorry guys but i think we all need to calm down a little bit. I remember seeing all this positivity in 98/99 then again in 2003/2004 and we all no how that ended up.I know were all seeing some signs but lets just remember that we have seen all this before and look how it ended up i.e those dates above. Plus i put about as much faith in joe b as my wifes driving which is very little lol. Yes enjoy the signals and the cold ramps going up a notch but just remeber we have seen this all before so dont try build your hopes up too much because otherwise you could be very very dissapointed come winter. As ive been so many times.

One positive spin, 98/99 03/04 were in very different cycle, I would lay money on us not getting a 98/99

BFTP

[Radiating Dendrite]

Yep, there is a little bit of ramping going on

I agree with Blast though, we are a world away from where we were at the end of the 90s!

We may not get a 62/63, but I also very much doubt we will get a 98/99.

Personally I am seeing a blend of 09/10 at the moment.

[UV-RAY]

A lot of talk regarding a winter like 62-63 being possible, will we get a winter that severe, well it's possible due to all the background signals being favourable at this moment in time. But we are still in October and maybe we are just getting carried away a little with all these positive signs. On a personal note I will be keeping an eye on solar output, too see if there is any increase in activity over the next month or so. If I remember rightly last November saw a increase in sunspot numbers but whether this can impact our weather in the short term is debatable though.

[SMU]

Sorry guys but i think we all need to calm down a little bit. I remember seeing all this positivity in 98/99 then again in 2003/2004 and we all no how that ended up.I know were all seeing some signs but lets just remember that we have seen all this before and look how it ended up i.e those dates above. Plus i put about as much faith in joe b as my wifes driving which is very little lol. Yes enjoy the signals and the cold ramps going up a notch but just remeber we have seen this all before so dont try build your hopes up too much because otherwise you could be very very dissapointed come winter. As ive been so many times.

To be fair you do see excitment most years as people get excited for the coming winter- however usually its not underpinned by any science-

Also in terms of DATA available the late 90's was hardly a treasure chest of info- with NO data available on the internet etc-

still, its always good to keep perspective- just tough this year with the overwhelming support thus far...

S

[Karl83]

Sorry guys but i think we all need to calm down a little bit. I remember seeing all this positivity in 98/99 then again in 2003/2004 and we all no how that ended up.I know were all seeing some signs but lets just remember that we have seen all this before and look how it ended up i.e those dates above. Plus i put about as much faith in joe b as my wifes driving which is very little lol. Yes enjoy the signals and the cold ramps going up a notch but just remeber we have seen this all before so dont try build your hopes up too much because otherwise you could be very very dissapointed come winter. As ive been so many times.

Its pretty hard to calm down when all I/We want is loads of snow and cold. I'll deal with the disappointment should it be mild.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think another few differences we need to recognise with the winter of 62/63 is the state of the AMO, the affect this has contributed to with the sea ice, and solar activity

We currently have a strong +ve AMO, compared to Autumn 62 which was closer to neutral. Just through the increases SSTs, this will likely have some influence on the jet stream, as well as "milding" any westerly or northerly flows.

Another impact of the last decade or 2 of +ve AMO is very reduced sea ice levels on the Atlantic side of the Arctic (Kara and Barents seas), much more so than the Pacific side. This leaves a lot of open and relatively mild ocean capable of affecting the air above it. This may moderate any strong cold plunges from the Arctic into Scandinavia or western Russia, as well as affecting the placement of high and low pressure areas.

For example, last year the Kara sea failed to freeze over completely for the first time on record

The other thing is that the winter of 62/63 came off the back of a period of very strong solar activity at the end of the 50s, so quite the opposite to this winter.

That's not to say we won't have some extreme cold, but even with the similarities to 62/63 there are some important differences.