Winter 2012/13 Pt 4... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes...

[Cloud 10]

Speaking of met office updates....

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Oct 2012 to Saturday 3 Nov 2012:

Many places cloudy but dry initially with temperatures near normal, although some drizzle in the east still possible. However, rain turning to snow over hills in Scotland will push south bringing a spell of cold and windy weather by the end of the week to all areas. The northeast of the UK will see wintry showers at times. Bright and dry elsewhere but with widespread overnight frost likely. Largely fine but rather cold conditions are expected for the rest of the month across much of the UK, with overnight frost continuing. Showers may continue to affect the northeast, wintry over hills. The start of November will most likely see a slow transition to more unsettled conditions from the west with temperatures recovering slightly.

Updated: 1113 on Sat 20 Oct 2012

[Aaron]

The thought of a winter dominated by mild westerly winds makes me feel physically sick. I'm not sure if I can handle months of utterly boring weather with no snow. That would also mean zero photo opportunities for my new camera!

Edited October 20, 2012 by Aaron

[weather is fun]

Well its looking highly likely that november is shaping up for us been in the warm westerly flow. Please hope this isnt the first signs of a zonal mild mush winter setting up again

[chiffer]

like hell its shaping up to be mild! it'll be cold.

[Met4Cast]

Cannot believe some of the posts in here today practically writing off winter. Get a grip!

[Barry12]

Well its looking highly likely that november is shaping up for us been in the warm westerly flow. Please hope this isnt the first signs of a zonal mild mush winter setting up again

and its looking 'highly likely' because? the met office seem to disagree.

and even if it is, who cares? Novembers still Autumn.

Edited October 20, 2012 by Barry95

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

Come on people!! ! Its the 20th of October , we should all know by now that sitting on this little island of ours things can change very quickly and we have a long way to go before winter can be wrote off !

[Barry12]

Come on people!! ! Its the 20th of October , we should all know by now that sitting on this little island of ours things can change very quickly and we have a long way to go before winter can be wrote off !

People see one mild chart and suddenly think it means winters over

Edited October 20, 2012 by Barry95

[chiffer]

Met office are swinging towards a cold november overall apart from in parts of scotland which could still see upland snow showers. they have more information and more experience. i value the opinions of everyone on here but they'd would have more evidence to back up there statments.

[johnholmes]

Well its looking highly likely that november is shaping up for us been in the warm westerly flow. Please hope this isnt the first signs of a zonal mild mush winter setting up again

I do doubt the sanity of some of you posting in here at times!

Please provide the evidence either for a cold November or a mild November rather than just making the statement you have.

To folks with little experience of TRYING to decipher signals for further than 15-20 days ahead please ignore this type of comment with nothing to back it up.

[Aaron]

Come on people!! ! Its the 20th of October , we should all know by now that sitting on this little island of ours things can change very quickly and we have a long way to go before winter can be wrote off !

I haven't seen any mild charts, I am just expressing my disdain for mild winters and how horribly boring they are.

[The watcher]

Just on the subject of yesterday evenings discussion about Education for weather forecasting.

I was looking at the prospects of doing Meteorology at Reading and I required very good grades in Maths and Physics A-Levels and even in specific modules for Mathematics.

I knew physics was an integral part from doing my GCSE's, as the teacher of that time always used to ask me questions such as "How does thunder and lightning occur?" and I'd draw him a picture of a thunderstorm with updraughts, downdraughts, +, neutral energy etc. Weather is a "force" of nature, and that word "force" is most commonly used in physics.

Edited October 20, 2012 by The watcher

[weather is fun]

I do doubt the sanity of some of you posting in here at times!

Please provide the evidence either for a cold November or a mild November rather than just making the statement you have.

To folks with little experience of TRYING to decipher signals for further than 15-20 days ahead please ignore this type of comment with nothing to back it up.

Just going by what there saying over on the strat threat

[Barry12]

Met office are swinging towards a cold november overall apart from in parts of scotland which could still see upland snow showers. they have more information and more experience. i value the opinions of everyone on here but they'd would have more evidence to back up there statments.

That makes no sense at all.

[The watcher]

Met office are swinging towards a cold november overall apart from in parts of scotland which could still see upland snow showers. they have more information and more experience. i value the opinions of everyone on here but they'd would have more evidence to back up there statments.

I take it you ment they are swinging to a mild November?

Also, we have a few ex metoffice members on this very forum, even people who have studied and got degrees in Meteorology, so the opinions on here can be as professional if you look in the right places. I recommend the Technical Model Output discussion and Strat Thread.

Edited October 20, 2012 by The watcher

[MR EXTREMES]

It's not over till the fat lady sings.

Last night cross model agreement but remember shortwaves and changes in the atmosphere happen every second of every day.

So the saying changeable like the weather is accurate term.

[SnowObsessor90]

There's still chance of another cold shot in November, even Chio's touched on it in the strat thread but after that then however...well let's just say that I hope the strat situation isn't looking quite so bleak by that time.

[Barry12]

CYA WINTER

[keithlucky]

Latest twitter from JB looks cold November

Edited October 20, 2012 by keithlucky

[Barry12]

Barry's Winter Forecast

A Repeat of November 2010?

November: November will start of very mild, highs of 14C in the north and 16C in the south. Rainfall will be average or just below. Highs of 10-13C in Scotland with above average rainfall. By mid November it will cool down to average temperatures. Frost will start to return for Scotland and Northern England. Rainfall will be around average for this period too. By the end of November blocking around Greenland will force arctic air down the UK, Scotland and Northern England will turn exceptionally cold, struggling to get above freezing in Scotland and highs of 1-2C in the North. The south will be milder at 4-5C. By the very end of November snow will start falling across Scotland and Northern England. Rain/sleet in the South.

December: Coming Soon!

[weather is fun]

There's still chance of another cold shot in November, even Chio's touched on it in the strat thread but after that then however...well let's just say that I hope the strat situation isn't looking quite so bleak by that time.

Yes i agree with what your saying.But it does look as though the strat is going to play a huge role in our coming winter. And as you rightly say lets hope it looks better in the coming weeks. Because at the moment it doesnt look too good for northern blocking to occur for our winter months. Meaning very little sustained cold. Looks like chio has burst alot of bubbles today.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I must say, having read Chiono's contribution to the strat thread today, there does appear to be negative undertones to what he is saying. Reading between the lines, the first half of winter COULD be a write off in terms of SUSTAINED cold if the strat doesn't warm. I did say over a week ago that I thought the strat could pull a stunt like this against other, seemingly positive, factors.

Saying this, GP did say that there could be a period of cooling within the strat before ozone 'see-saws' back to the NH in time for Jan & Feb.

[Barry12]

chionomaniac IS VIEWING THE THREAD.

[Barry12]

WINTER IS OVER, THE STRATOSPHERE IS BELOW AVERAGE MEANING NO SUSTAINED COLD, HOPEFULLY WINTER 2013-2014 WILL PROVE BETTER.

[Letitsnowyorkshire]

I haven't seen any mild charts, I am just expressing my disdain for mild winters and how horribly boring they are.

Oh no I am with you on that and it wasnt you that I was the coment at , yours was more of an opinion on milder winter weather rather than a prediction/forcast