Model Output Discussion 12z 18/10/2012

[johnholmes]

Cheers for the PMs BFTP & CHIO- no issues-

I Guess on board will be in the eye of the poster- IE on board with whatever your expectation was in the first place....

Eyes down for the pub run- lets hope its clutter free-

S

Steve?

What difference will it make to your view of what you think may occur if

1) the 18z carries on with the 12z idea?

2) it reverts to the 00z position.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yep....its way different to 12z. Models...who'd have them!!??

BFTP

[Met4Cast]

I can't wait until the clocks go back and the charts are all one hour earlier!

18z already looking like an improvement on the 06z and 12z runs, it should follow nicely into the cold pushing down across the UK now, if it doesn't I'll be surprised, if it does, we at last have some multi-model support

Energy goes North to the West of Greenland, trigger low moves down towards Scandi.. Northerly developing

Edited October 18, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[chionomaniac]

The GFS is dead! Long live the ECM!

No surprise to see a second wave produce more than the first!

Oh Gawd.

Reports that the GFS is dead are premature. Long live the GFS!

[Alan Medlock Valley]

I can't wait until the clocks go back and the charts are all one hour earlier!

18z already looking like an improvement on the 06z and 12z runs, it should follow nicely into the cold pushing down across the UK now, if it doesn't I'll be surprised, if it does, we at last have some multi-model support

Energy goes North to the West of Greenland, trigger low moves down towards Scandi.. Northerly developing

Potent Greenland high there @ 1055mb

[SMU]

Steve?

What difference will it make to your view of what you think may occur if

1) the 18z carries on with the 12z idea?

2) it reverts to the 00z position.

My view / forecast is that the 12z 228 chart from the other day is going to be pretty spot on-

so im expecting 48-72 hours of to'ing & fr'oing of the longwave pattern then honing of location-

The 18z is going to get close to that original 228 chart- which is now the 174/180 chart ( 54 hours on) - or thereabouts

S

Edited October 18, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Met4Cast]

Notice how much cleaner the 18z is across Greenland compared to the 12z, the Shortwaves have vanished and we see a much smoother transition, something I think Steve Murr was talking about

12z

18z

[johnholmes]

My view / forecast is that the 12z 228 chart from the other day is going to be pretty spot on-

so im expecting 48-72 hours of to'ing & fr'oing of the longwave pattern then honing of location-

The 18z is going to get close to that original 228 chart- which is now the 174/180 chart ( 54 hours on) - or thereabouts

S

I should have said 2) reverts to the 06z position-apologies

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Notice how much cleaner the 18z is across Greenland compared to the 12z, the Shortwaves have vanished and we see a much smoother transition, something I think Steve Murr was talking about

12z

18z

Goes back to previous comments on how wishy washy the ECM was and the very messy previous UKMO with SWs everywhere. Are we seeing the wood through the trees ? Its the models and model thread...no chance...

BFTP

[Bristawl Si]

If i was a complete newbie looking into this thread (and the one before) i'd be very confused!

It seems more manic than any other year i've popped in - and it's only October!

Is this deliberate by NW, to drive traffic thru' the site, on behalf of the advertisers?

[swfc]

Pressure drops over greenland and the whole thing collapses!!!!

[Met4Cast]

The 18z literally falls apart from about 180 onwards, there's no way that high would melt away like that and be replaced by a Euro High, almost overnight.. I think the 18z is a bit drunk now

Edited October 18, 2012 by Daniel AKA WMD

[Snowstorm1]

Pressure drops over greenland and the whole thing collapses!!!!

18z has gone tipsy and just decided to do what it wanted lmfao

[Mark Neal.]

If i was a complete newbie looking into this thread (and the one before) i'd be very confused!

It seems more manic than any other year i've popped in - and it's only October!

Is this deliberate by NW, to drive traffic thru' the site, on behalf of the advertisers?

I agree and disagree; i think that it doesn't help for many new people when there are conflicting views and also the problem most of the time is they don't understand what some of the discussion is about.

But on the other-hand since i have been model watching in the last 2 years, i have learned alot and there is some great personnel on here who are willing to help others understand, keep up the good work everyone

18z looks alot better than the 12z on the GFS, it is the pub run though

Then it goes horribly wrong, good job thats in Fi aye!

Edited October 18, 2012 by Mark 'Ox' Neal

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18z has gone tipsy and just decided to do what it wanted lmfao

Has it though...from there on its plausible with a classic reload pattern...that's how I read it, let's see

BFTP

[Snowstorm1]

Has it though...from there on its plausible with a classic reload pattern...that's how I read it, let's see

BFTP

What the GH would dissapear over night like it did on the 18z and be replaced by the Euro High that quick

[SMU]

Last one from me-

The only models ensembles that I havent discarded once.....

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

S

[mulzy]

Last one from me-

The only models ensembles that I havent discarded once.....

http://www.knmi.nl/e...agse/index.html

S

London ECM Ensembles have also moved colder in the medium term.

http://www.weatherca...e-forecast.html

Edited October 18, 2012 by mulzy

[Robbie Garrett]

Does look like the GFS ensembles are trending colder 850hpa temperatures. Some going down to -8 but as warm as +12. quite a few members from 5 to -5.

Most notably Londons' average temperature looks to drop quite a bit.

NAO trending negative, possibly slightly less negative than currently... interesting to see how November pans out with the follow above pointing towards the possibility of it getting a lot more colder than currently.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What the GH would dissapear over night like it did on the 18z and be replaced by the Euro High that quick

No???? it won't go away

BFTP

[Zenarcher]

Things looking good on the GFS 00z better than the 18z,

Monday high pressure builds over our North,

Around 120 hours is where the good change is (Tuesday) compared to the 18z the pressure over our North around Greenland looks stronger,

Over to 144 hours the Greenland blocking still looks better on the 00z and another good note is the 18z did place slightly more energy into the Atlantic meanwhile the 00z has played this down and upgraded the blocking,

At 162 hours the 00z GFS gives Northern parts of the UK some wintry weather. Bear in mind though this is a week away,

Comparing both the 00z runs of the UKMO and GFS at 144 hours we see PV being more stronger on the GFS and differences between the high pressure over Greenland,

GFS

UKMO

Edited October 19, 2012 by weathermaster

[NorthYorksWeather]

The 18z ensembles showed little support for the operational run so it will be interesting to see if the 00z is an outlier. GFS isn't giving up on this Northerly

[shotski]

Wow, Is this amount of northern blocking normal ? and what does it mean for the ice pack.

[Paul]

If i was a complete newbie looking into this thread (and the one before) i'd be very confused!

It seems more manic than any other year i've popped in - and it's only October!

Is this deliberate by NW, to drive traffic thru' the site, on behalf of the advertisers?

Lol, by its nature, a discussion forum is pretty organic, if people are discussing the models a lot its going to be because they want to based on what the models are showing, that's all!

Its also fair to say that as a discussion there always will be opposing viewpoints and differing interpretations of things..

[TonyH]

Ecm looking cold!