Model Output Discussion 12z 18/10/2012

[chionomaniac]

The GFS is dead! Long live the ECM!

No surprise to see a second wave produce more than the first!

[P-M]

Looking at the anomaly charts for the first half of October this year and then comparing to

the same time last year is an eye opener.

Virtually complete opposites!

2011.. 2012..

Is there any way of getting 2010 and comparing with this years cloud?

Edited October 18, 2012 by Wishful-Thinking

[ANYWEATHER]

The GFS is dead! Long live the ECM!

No surprise to see a second wave produce more than the first!

I really dont think the gfs is dead/////,,,,,,,!

[Tim Bland]

You couldn't make it up could you ! Now the ECM ad ukmo are on board the GFS jumps ship! Ensembles (GFS) have backed right off a there are very few cold members now in fi

[ANYWEATHER]

You couldn't make it up could you ! Now the ECM ad ukmo are on board the GFS jumps ship! Ensembles (GFS) have backed right off a there are very few cold members now in fi

Preeeeety Normal stuff really

[Jayces]

Preeeeety Normal stuff really

Was about to post the same thing, up to about 48-72 hours normally all the models are very similar, after that every year (well every day really) it's the same old story. On of them picks something up and then they all bat it around between themselves, dropping it, picking it up again until it gets to the 48-72 hour range where they finally all have some sort of agreement on what will happen.

If I remember correctly the thing that always seems to scupper things just as everything is looking great are shortwaves which can appear at really short range and change the pattern completely.

[SMU]

A little confused Steve, as per your commentary & posts over the last few days - in the curent developing situation taking place over northern latitudes shouldn't we be trusting the GFS to get a handle on things above the Euro models, as you have alluded to many times?

I think what I actually said was ignore the euros until they come on board with the pattern-

My way of looking at the output is when i see the pattern I EXPECT to develop appear in the model & it 'feels' correct- which is smooth, uncluttered & not very messy with loads of shortwaves then I will discount anything that appears to be the opposite of that-

Prior to todays 12's I have discounted-

ALL the 12z Suite on the 16/10/12

All the 00z Suite on the 17/10/12 bar the 00z GFS & the 00Z ECM ensembles-

Every 06z Run & Ensemble on the 17/10/12-

All the 12z Suite on the 17/10/12 bar the 12z GFS & the 12z ECM ensembles-

All the 18z run & ensembles on the 17/10/12

So if you have tracked my posts I said the GFS 12z & 00z has been the best followed by the ECM ensembles ( more especially the 12z )

on the 16th & 17th the forecast arctic plunge was at 192-

Now on one day after discounting

All of the above again barring the 00z GFS & 00z ECM ensembles we get to the 12z runs-

What have I discounted

12z GFS- & ensemble Suite- yes that has gone against the grain but its messy with complicated shortwaves traversing greenland- also the GFS does have wobbles & I as I have commented I am the first to say when its not a good run-

All of sudden tonight the Euros have had a Massive swing, they have swung to the previous GFS outputs, but remember go back to my first opening for my little experiment I posted the 228 chart- not because it was the GFS but because that what I was forecasting-

Because the projected is now at 168 we can include the 144 charts on the following outputs today to see if my pattern is developing- the crux of it is the vortex is sharpening up over the pole heading south & my favourite focus area of this winter the SW tip of greenland-

I was the first to bring that up in the Winter thread but im not hunting for the post-

So look at the 144 charts of the suite tonight discounting the messy complicated GFS-

Look at ALL the models & how the energy over SW greenland has now split North south-

UKMO 144

JMA 144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1441.gif

ECM 144

NOGAPS 144

Up until this afternoon they all had energy going into or under greenland- hence no GH now they are splitting energy & hence the big pressure rise-

If you look really close ( Like I do on the NH plot) you will see that the ECM is the furthest east with that greenland energy- it is of no surprise then at 168 that solution for europe is the furthest east..

macro changes on those shortwaves = big corrections over europe..

I still belive the ECM is to far east at 168 & for the reasons highlighted above.

hope this helps- its felt like me V some of the regulars here over the last 72 hours- theres a lot more analysis going on than just discounting a run out of turn-

hope this helps

S

[Mr Frost]

I love how certain people on here who do not have a clue what to look for within the models post sarcastic and smarmy comments everytime a morning or afternoon run changes shape. Steve is putting everyone to shame with his fantastic posts in which he gives everyone a lesson in how to read the information in front of you and puts his heart and time into everything he says. He has been suggesting what he see's happening for a good few days now and I for one truly appreciate it. Absolutely fantastic analysis and I am so impressed with how he reads things. There is a definite chance of a cold shot coming up within the next 10 to 14 days, things are looking up for us coldies!

[bluearmy]

whilst noaa cpc charts look like winter sypnotic nirvana this evening, the chances of winter arriving on our shores in the next fornight remains remote as the 500mb heights remain high with the 552 north of the uk and the 564 flirting with the south coast. until we get below the 552, whilst a brief cold shot is possible, it is quite unlikely. it will sink south as we head thru november. loving the overall patterns and steve is using his experience to guide you thru what looks right and what looks wrong.

[SMU]

& the last one I forgot the GEM 144

Ive put a purple ring on this where to focus your eyes & the big purple line we dont to see the shortwave going UP western greenland getting much further east than that-

The south line is not as important-- but im highlighting the split area

S

[legritter]

Just remember gang ,us humans have a Brain ,computer modells dont, well not quite yet .the ECM gfs etc will continue to swing day to day ,06 to 12z ,trillions and trillions of info constant .we know as a bunch of weather enthusiasts that high pressure as a good chance of taking over to the north of us eventually ,but exactly where it positions itself and orientates itself is still far from clear . we,r talking about it here ,even the canadians are on about it ,JOE is on about it ,JAPS in the northern islands are on about northern blocking , lets not knock the modells too much ,lets use them as a tool , and carry on doing the thinking for them ,keep the Technical info coming please you regular posters . looking at current modells and data T168 Hrs is about as far as i am looking realy at the moment, but if they all start singing together .i might burst into song as well ,its going to be a white .

[Cloud 10]

Is there any way of getting 2010 and comparing with this years cloud?

This year.. 2010..

[Robbie Garrett]

Looking at the anomaly charts for the first half of October this year and then comparing to

the same time last year is an eye opener.

Virtually complete opposites!

2011.. 2012..

This year.. 2010..

Do you have Novembers for 2010/2011?? Just out of interest. Looking good in terms of setup compared to 2011.

[chionomaniac]

I pointed out this morning to Steve, that compared to 2010 the ECM wasn't interested in a forthcoming cold spell. This is the first run where the ECM has hinted on heights growing over Greenland. I think that this time the pattern is far more difficult to predict because we are dealing with a displacement of the vortex rather than an equal split and therefore the chances of a GH are far more difficult to be assured of.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

When UKMO came up with its 12z it is of no surprise what the ECM has come up with. How many times have we seen models swap? Cold blast for time of year is coming Backend of Oct, potency is only decider IMO.

BFTP

[damianslaw]

Certainly very busy thread this evening, the busiest its been in months - when it is this busy at this time of year, you know some of the models at least must be showing cold...

Reliable timeframe - becoming very mild for the time of year thanks to a pull of stable warm air from the south over the weekend and into next week. The atlantic when it should be firing into full on autumn gear seems to want to be doing the opposite... mmm its been a very odd year so far in this respect, when you expect the atlantic to settle into its lowest gear in early April, it did the opposite..

Longer term - with a weakened jetstream and lack of a strong PV, the mostly settled conditions should continue through to the end of the month before a possible early cold shot from the NE as shown by ECM this evening - its a very plausible outcome. None of the models want to ramp the atlantic up, and therefore I think it is safe to say the end of the month is likely to be chilly even cold with frost and fog becoming a major feature.. but too early to say whether a full on arctic blast will occur, if we don't see any northerly blast the likely alternative will be high pressure sitting over the country which in late October means jolly cold nights and very slow to clear fog.. the autumn colours this year could be spectacular thanks to imminent warm up and then likely cool down with no strong winds.. could be some superb scenes by the end of the month.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just a light hearted post from me. Question....why is this my favourite chart 'still' of the day?

A one word answer covers it....

BFTP

Edited October 18, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bobbydog]

just to clarify, when the term "on board" is used when referring to any particular model, what exactly is "on board"? Are we talking, 'showing cold'? or in agreement with the other models? i think there seems to be confusion regarding this.

it has been said "the GFS is dead" however it seems to be more or less in agreement with the Met Office 6-15 and 16-30 day forecasts, which have changed very little in the past couple of weeks.

"Often cloudy, but generally dry, with the best of any sunshine towards the southeast. Some rain or drizzle is possible across northern Scotland at first, with a chance of a little rain in northern and western areas from time to time through the latter part of the week. Breezy in places, particularly in the west and around eastern coasts. Temperatures near or above normal, and perhaps locally very warm any sunshine in the southeast. Temperatures returning to nearer average from later next week, with an increasing risk of overnight frost in the north. A greater chance of rain across the UK into the following week, although mainly in the west and northwest. Still plenty of dry weather though, particularly in the southeast."

"Indications are that through the first half of November, mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. Some drier and less unsettled spells are likely, particularly across eastern and southeastern parts of the UK for a time. There will, however, also be showers or longer periods of rain affecting most parts but more especially the north and west. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts through this period. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible with mist and fog patches developing and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland."

pretty consistent with autumn weather and no mention of countrywide wintry weather.

there is some great potential for winter, with strong signals supporting this.

i think autumn however, will be.... well.... autumnal! (the GFS seems to be on board!)

[Cloud 10]

Do you have Novembers for 2010/2011?? Just out of interest. Looking good in terms of setup compared to 2011.

November 2010.. November 2011..

Link for composites> Daily Climate Composites

[SMU]

Cheers for the PMs BFTP & CHIO- no issues-

I Guess on board will be in the eye of the poster- IE on board with whatever your expectation was in the first place....

Eyes down for the pub run- lets hope its clutter free-

S

[Robbie Garrett]

November 2010.. November 2011..

Link for composites> Daily Climate Composites

That's one big difference!!! Be interesting to compare that this year.

[lorenzo]

Some interesting review of the model output here.. thought I would link this as it really highlights the work that goes in to tracking each model suite from run to run. Among the pages HPC issue within the actual forecast for CONUS they also give the models a good forensic examination. Although centred around features impacting the US they do provide information on feel for what each model is doing. eg

THE LATEST ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE

SOLUTIONS...AND EXPECT THE 12Z ECENS MEAN TO FOLLOW SUIT. HPC

CONTINUES TO RECOMMENDS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/UKMET MODELS...

Initialisation of the model runs, which is most progressive, which sits far out with the spread of all the models, which ensemble suites will deviate from this spread etc etc.

Also in this page is a useful overlay for looking at US heights and with some close inspection the progression of systems towards Greenland can be noted here also. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml

Edited October 18, 2012 by lorenzo

[phil nw.]

I am sure the last 2-3 days have confused some members with regard to views expressed in this thread about the a possible Northerly later next week.

My view for what it`s worth is, and has been for a few days now, that the main thrust of cold will head to our east through Scandinavia and Russia.

My reasoning is rather boring and nowhere as entertaining as Steve`s posts.

For a number of runs the ECM and all the GFS mean outputs have shown the Northerly to pass to our east with the GFS operational runs cold against the mean outputs.-until the 006Z/12Z`s today

.A view of the Gefs graphs showed the operation GFS as a cold option against the mean line in those same runs.

Tonights latest mean thickness charts from the 12z ECM/GFS Ens.images for T168hrs. again show the main thrust of cold heading to our east.

I will say that the current displaced modelling of the vortex towards the Siberian side of the pole shoves plenty of cold this side of the hemisphere and we could well see another Northerly in the near future.The latest ECM mean heights anomoly for day 10 here hints at the next possible event

Maybe just missing to our east but worth monitoring.

I feel i should add that all outputs should be examined including the ensembles and mean charts.Check how close the operational charts are to other models for that run and timeframe.The viewer can then tell how seriously any operational run should be taken.

At the end of the day we can all get it wrong but by taking into account all outputs we can get what i like to call a balanced picture and an idea of the most likely solution.

[SMU]

Subtle changes on the GFS 18z at 102 V 108 12Z

although blink & you will miss it-

when tracking run V run always have 2 windows open with the Chart on one page on the old run at say 48 & the new run at 42 - they should be identical but you notice the differences this way-

anyway t 102 18z

& the 12Z

look at the angle of the east coast shortwave now going up the west as opposed to into the coast & more NE-

NET of this everything will be further west on the 18z..

The GFS SHould be back on the bandwagon tonight.... or at least close

S

Edited October 18, 2012 by Steve Murr

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If 18z doesn't follow ECM/UKMO after its 120 outlook....I'll be darned

EDit

SM.....Beat me to it

BFTP

Edited October 18, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST