South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - October 22nd 2012>

[abruzzi spur]

further to my earlier post I am prepared to admit I was wrong to doubt the floodline phonecall, but I am trying my best to cope:

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi all

http://www.weatherch...kmomslp.htm#t48

Look at nov 5th chilly north easterly flow. Could be a cold one and might stay dry

Also look at the charts at the bottom. These are uk met 00 and 12 runs. Look how different the 144 charts are. The flow over the uk even at that time span is far from sorted out. More tomorrow :-)

Cheers John. One thing is for sure, it's going to be wet wet wet.

[gottolovethisweather]

More reports of Thunder here.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74675-uk-general-convective-discussion-forecasts-10th-october-2012/page__st__120#entry2394641

As john shows in his link, could be some interesting days ahead of us, with regard to some active weather.

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

:-(

[Snowangel-MK]

I cant keep doing this.

No you can't....someone will be along with a restraining order in the morning

[gottolovethisweather]

No you can't....someone will be along with a restraining order in the morning

Don't tell him that he'll be restrained either, that brings up all sorts of contortations too. Now, you've got me thinking of Benny Hill again, I thought that dee... de..... de.... dee....... de..... diddle... le, subject was dropped.

Edited October 31, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Great Plum]

further to my earlier post I am prepared to admit I was wrong to doubt the floodline phonecall, but I am trying my best to cope:

And you are on the top of the hill! I'm typing this from my submarine!

[Mrsf16]

Piddling down in Peterborough! A good old wind with it too! Glad I am wrapped up in my duvet listening to it

[john pike]

http://www.weathercharts.net/northwood_analysis/northwood_analysis_mslp.png?31415

Hi gltw

As you say some very wet and at times windy weather

The link above shows a low pressure to our south east of 885

Now that is low

[john pike]

Re post above

Might be 885 or 985

Hard to read on my phone

[cobbettp]

very heavy rain, squall

[gottolovethisweather]

Re post above

Might be 885 or 985

Hard to read on my phone

It is 985 John, but nevertheless, globally speaking, we are so far removed from where we were last autumn, it is a pleasure to see.

In fact, going by the 12z ensembles, if you were to take them literally, my region of Berkshire would be unlikely to witness hardly any double-digit Maximums for a great part of the first half of November. On top of this, the 850s whilst not really favourable for snow, never reach the average and precipitation is suggested to be plentiful.

I do truly feel we will soon be entering a transitional period, which may well determine how the first month of winter is to pan out. I like most sensible folk (who me? ) will not be placing their bets on which way it goes, just yet.

Edited October 31, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

Hi gtlw

Thanks for that. Phones not great looking at charts

I agree with what you say however I think people are watching up north too much. I am thinking look east and you know how the models handle it from that direction. I have a feeling that this will be more noticeable from mid november. But like you I won't be ramping :-)

[ZONE 51]

Interesting watching this squall heading in, it is possible it might keep some thundery activity as it heads our way, certainly a very gusty wind out there i expect to increase for a while.

Edited November 1, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Jezzer]

Belting it down in Surrey!

[EML Network]

Blowing here at a constant 33 knots (about 35 mph) , had a Max Gust of 45 MPH thus far, waiting for the squall line to hit, but it's taking it's time...at this rate I'll have to wait up until 3 am , hoping we can top 60 MPH as a Max gust a little later.

pressure down to 977 mb and falling at 1.9 per hour !!!

Edited November 1, 2012 by EML Network

[ZONE 51]

Heavy rain and gusty now but what hit here around 0025am for around 10 mins at it's strongest, that was impressive, became fog sheets of torrential driving rain and some very strong gusts estimated at 40-50mph.

Rough weather out there tonight.

Edited November 1, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[ZONE 51]

Belting it down in Surrey!

It was quite a hit of a squall that.

very heavy rain now.

Edited November 1, 2012 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Sarahweatherpics]

North west Kent, becoming very windy now, with sudden, sharp gusts

[ZONE 51]

The heavy rainfall has greatly widened as it's headed into the SE with some lines of torrential rain.

[john pike]

Its absolutely chucking it down

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

That lot from france may give the odd

Bang later

Wind did not pick up oddly enough

[Mark Neal.]

Had plenty of rain this evening. Finishing work and the heavens opened, I got caught in the squall line alright. Total Rainfall so far at 19.3mm. We had some heavy rain before the main rainband. I have to say winds earlier were very strong; Gust of 32mph @ 9:15pm. Rain lighter now and should tend to stop soonish, heavy showers piling in behind though☔

[Mark Neal.]

Few roads seeing plenty of water round here :/

Edited November 1, 2012 by Mark Neal.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Bloody hell...What a night 0.0

Woken up twice 2 strong winds and very heavy rain

Lots of rain, hasn't stopped raining from around midnight :/

[Coast]

Morning SE and EAers!

So the rain and the winds arrived and in Eastbourne we have had 24.0mm of rain in the last 24 hours. A load of flooding and puddles on the Sussex roads on the way in and quite hairy doing the slalom course when trucks are also doing the same in the opposite direction!

The rain and wind has backed off a bit at the moment, but i think there's more to come and the potential for more convective activity during today out in the Channel. Now go and get your galoshes on!!

Edited November 1, 2012 by Coast