Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Gavin P]

Here's the Fifth Winter 2012/2013 Roundu-Up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

We're in the most critical period now, so these will now become weekely until the end of the month when Ill combine this with the seasonal models/May Atlantic SST and try to make a forecast for winter 2012/2013.

Thanks for your support as always.

[Hotspur62]

Thanks for everyones support re JB incident this morning.I was being a "little ironic".The thing that really did ruin my day yesterday was watching Spurs perform dreadfully at the Lane, but that is another story!!The weather is just a hobby that i have been fascinated for years and i,like everyone else, was just trying to give an opinion that Winter might not start off as a "Coldies paradise".Then again,it might.There is everything to play for and models and other factors may swing back in favour of cold weather coming back for early December.It is not "Negative" one way or the other as some people might not want 3 months of cold and snow.If we got that,i think the country could end up in a right old mess!!

[AWD]

Some promising posts in the Mod thread by the usual people suggestive of interesting POTENTIAL as we open up winter proper.

Could make some interesting viewing over the next couple of weeks with I'm sure, plenty of ups & downs in both this thread & the Mod thread.

Nevertheless, with some heavy wet snowfall IMBY this morning, and interesting potential sypnotics developing later this month, I'm in quite a good mood about this season so far. Admittedly, I'm more interested in snowfall rather than sustained cold. Couldn't careless if its marginal or sustained, I just love watching & standing in falling snow.

Bring it on I say, looking forward to this winter, whatever the weather may be.

Edited November 4, 2012 by AWD

[Snowman.]

There seems to have been a real shift in recent days to the erosion of Blocking taking place and latest runs for next 16 days seem to be firming up on a more Westerly flow with pressure seeming to fall up in Greenland so i think chances of Blocking are dropping daily.With the Azores High never being too far away either it isn't looking that great for cold and snow lovers.Hopefully,things will change but the odds i feel of a cold start to December are reducing imo.Just hope we don't have repeat of last winter when only cold we had was last few days of Jan and first 10 days of Feb(And we were luckier than most here in Kent in the UK!)Still time for things to change but "my gut" feeling is that if there is to be a sustained period of cold in the UK,then it will be from Jan onwards.

PV heads over Greenland that is why pressure drops but considering that thing has been everywhere I wouldn't suspect it to last there that long.

[feb1991blizzard]

I thought by our emissions that we were doing something about it, I mean we are supposed have seen snow as a thing of the past?

I have to say personally I don't want snow for Christmas as its too disruptive in the UK and ireland, cold and frosty by all means for my personal taste.

BFTP

BFTP

If it was a choice between having an mid 80's Easterly in the week leading up to xmas crippling the London transport system or no snow the whole winter would you take it BLAST?

[John Badrick]

Thanks for everyones support re JB incident this morning.I was being a "little ironic".The thing that really did ruin my day yesterday was watching Spurs perform dreadfully at the Lane, but that is another story!!The weather is just a hobby that i have been fascinated for years and i,like everyone else, was just trying to give an opinion that Winter might not start off as a "Coldies paradise".Then again,it might.There is everything to play for and models and other factors may swing back in favour of cold weather coming back for early December.It is not "Negative" one way or the other as some people might not want 3 months of cold and snow.If we got that,i think the country could end up in a right old mess!!

Yes sorry Hotspur61 for the harsh comment this morning, but I would really love a white Christmas this year. I have 2 young children and for them to wake up on Christmas day with snow on the ground would make it very special indeed

[CanadaAl]

Loving the new weather porn out from the CFS, blocking from 24th right until early december. Not that far off either.

[johnholmes]

Yes sorry Hotspur61 for the harsh comment this morning, but I would really love a white Christmas this year. I have 2 young children and for them to wake up on Christmas day with snow on the ground would make it very special indeed

John? could I ask for you to put your nearest town in your avatar please then when you get the snow we will know where you are?

thanks

[feb1991blizzard]

John? could I ask for you to put your nearest town in your avatar please then when you get the snow we will know where you are?

thanks

While your on here John, i would love to read your PDFs but i can't open PDFs, Is there any other way i can read your take on things, have you a blog or anything?

[John Badrick]

John? could I ask for you to put your nearest town in your avatar please then when you get the snow we will know where you are?

thanks

Done

[Jax]

I have recently heard '63 bandided about as a recent likely similar outcome to the recent weather output we have see across the UK ( and the NH as a whole), what are the chances it is true I wonder? Much as I like most weather (not a fan of wind it just destroys everthing) I would not be too keen on keeping alive in a deep winter in the UK as we just do not have the capacity to cope with it.

[johnholmes]

While your on here John, i would love to read your PDFs but i can't open PDFs, Is there any other way i can read your take on things, have you a blog or anything?

I'll pm you

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Noticed it often happens with the 144 UKMO chart on meteociel, looks legendary but is a complete error

Edited November 4, 2012 by ihatetherain

[feb1991blizzard]

I'll pm you

Thanks.

[syed2878]

well lucky those of u who got snow today we only got a bit of rain this morning, lets hope it's our turn soon to c some of the white stuf.

[Aaron]

Yes sorry Hotspur61 for the harsh comment this morning, but I would really love a white Christmas this year. I have 2 young children and for them to wake up on Christmas day with snow on the ground would make it very special indeed

Snow on coastal Cornwall is unlikely at the best of times so I wouldn't get your hopes too high for a white Christmas. But hey, who knows? It's happened before so it can happen again.

[snowstorm445]

The latest from The weather Outlook for winter

http://www.theweathe...her/latest.aspx

Not very surprising to see Brian Gaze revising his winter thoughts after a series of poor runs, as he is well known for not sticking to his guns when it comes to long-range forecasting. Last winter he went for a "very slightly" colder than average winter, but before December had even finished, he decided to change his mind and forecasted a milder than average winter.

Even the fact that he is never certain about it (maybe, possibly, very very slight bias etc.), and always sits on the fence shows how little confidence he has in his forecasts. If you look at this TWO Buzz he often looks at model runs and decides "well this goes against my previous forecast, and the models must be right, so I'll change my forecast for so and so".

If you want to see a forecaster who sticks to their guns and has more confidence in his forecasting you should listen to Simon Keeling. I find his forecasts and his musings very in-depth and he usually sticks to his original forecasts even when the odds are against it.

[chionomaniac]

Not very surprising to see Brian Gaze revising his winter thoughts after a series of poor runs, as he is well known for not sticking to his guns when it comes to long-range forecasting. Last winter he went for a "very slightly" colder than average winter, but before December had even finished, he decided to change his mind and forecasted a milder than average winter.

Even the fact that he is never certain about it (maybe, possibly, very very slight bias etc.), and always sits on the fence shows how little confidence he has in his forecasts. If you look at this TWO Buzz he often looks at model runs and decides "well this goes against my previous forecast, and the models must be right, so I'll change my forecast for so and so".

I tried to find his previous winter forecasts but they don't appear to be on his site.

Also I am not impressed with his strat thoughts. He sees the linkage but then refuses to factor it in - instead deeming it ludicrous. Well I am sure the met office don't agree having spent a fortune including the strat measurements into their latest computer modelling!

[feb1991blizzard]

I tried to find his previous winter forecasts but they don't appear to be on his site.

Also I am not impressed with his strat thoughts. He sees the linkage but then refuses to factor it in - instead deeming it ludicrous. Well I am sure the met office don't agree having spent a fortune including the strat measurements into their latest computer modelling!

I agree, he seems to condratict himself far too much for my liking, that said though, i dont think he is a sensationalist and to be fair, he did call the second half of last feb pretty well.

I tried to find his previous winter forecasts but they don't appear to be on his site.

Also I am not impressed with his strat thoughts. He sees the linkage but then refuses to factor it in - instead deeming it ludicrous. Well I am sure the met office don't agree having spent a fortune including the strat measurements into their latest computer modelling!

wonder why???

[lorenzo]

I concur the Strat has nothing to do with anything at all.

Nor have Gravity waves in the mesosphere brought about by mountain torque and MJO episodes. Climate physics is a mugs game.

( Hefty Caveat - all of the above is gibberish)

[snowmore]

I tried to find his previous winter forecasts but they don't appear to be on his site.

Also I am not impressed with his strat thoughts. He sees the linkage but then refuses to factor it in - instead deeming it ludicrous. Well I am sure the met office don't agree having spent a fortune including the strat measurements into their latest computer modelling!

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1675

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1723

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1821

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1873

I cannot find 2010/11

Stratospheric temperature forecasts

In simple terms stratospheric warming is believed to encourage northern blocking. The problem is forecasting stratospheric temperatures, and fully understanding the time lag and how to use this as a forecasting tool for a small part of the Earth such as the UK.

Conclusion

Whilst I'm interested, I don't currently think it's possible to draw conclusions in this area, so to me there is no strong signal.

To me it doesn't sound like he is dismissing the strat, it just looks like he doesn't know enough about it to factor it in.

I have not been following his forecasts in the past, so I can't speak for his reliability.

This is my first post, so please go easy on me :-)

I am a newbie(but have loved weather since I was a child). I have been following the threads on this forum for the last couple of months and have really enjoyed learning from you guy's :-)

James

Edited November 4, 2012 by jamesd

[legritter]

Just thought i would post on this forum ,to share a little bit of my knowledge .i am only an amateur but been into weather for probably 50 yrs .we do have modern technology now ,computers that can do trillions of calculations ,but you only have to look at the usual runs of the main modells to see how much the EXPECTED outlook changes twice per day .i find it helpfull when they all start seeing the same synoptic situation at say 192 hrs .but even this can change the following day .We just dont know whats around the next corner .but one thing i have noticed over the years and looking at all notable winter events [main cold spells that bring bitter snowy weather which make the headlines etc ]you usually get a few warning signs in advance i say usually but not always .odviously at the moment the synoptics look typical for the next 7/10 days but we do have the prospect of high pressure setting up to our east . in this situation the forecast modells will struggle .If you look at 10day outlooks for all mayor citys in northern hemisphere and keep a record and check back the end of that forecast is nearly always way out ,so there you have it ,we can use modell runs as a guide and the more talented of people on NET Weather are good at looking between the lines ,and sticking their knecks out .But as we all know the professionalls hold back untill most modells sing together ,and the other modells we dont see are also showing the same .anyhow as far as my expectations for this winter goes it would be great for a real mix ,fantastic synoptics lets say HIGH finland 1060 mb at some point ,but the greenland high feels left out so it produces a high of 1070mb . a low slow moving over N/WEST France with a 3day wrap around ,the odd polar low developing much further south and running right across us ,and of course a good easterly flow with plenty of disturbances embedded .Im not asking much .any how lets all enjoy what Mother nature throws at us this winter and hope we all get a little of what we fancy . anyhow i better move as my wife just mumbled ,i think ,on that computer again ,cheers Gang .

[claret047]

Just thought i would post on this forum ,to share a little bit of my knowledge .i am only an amateur but been into weather for probably 50 yrs .we do have modern technology now ,computers that can do trillions of calculations ,but you only have to look at the usual runs of the main modells to see how much the EXPECTED outlook changes twice per day .i find it helpfull when they all start seeing the same synoptic situation at say 192 hrs .but even this can change the following day .We just dont know whats around the next corner .but one thing i have noticed over the years and looking at all notable winter events [main cold spells that bring bitter snowy weather which make the headlines etc ]you usually get a few warning signs in advance i say usually but not always .odviously at the moment the synoptics look typical for the next 7/10 days but we do have the prospect of high pressure setting up to our east . in this situation the forecast modells will struggle .If you look at 10day outlooks for all mayor citys in northern hemisphere and keep a record and check back the end of that forecast is nearly always way out ,so there you have it ,we can use modell runs as a guide and the more talented of people on NET Weather are good at looking between the lines ,and sticking their knecks out .But as we all know the professionalls hold back untill most modells sing together ,and the other modells we dont see are also showing the same .anyhow as far as my expectations for this winter goes it would be great for a real mix ,fantastic synoptics lets say HIGH finland 1060 mb at some point ,but the greenland high feels left out so it produces a high of 1070mb . a low slow moving over N/WEST France with a 3day wrap around ,the odd polar low developing much further south and running right across us ,and of course a good easterly flow with plenty of disturbances embedded .Im not asking much .any how lets all enjoy what Mother nature throws at us this winter and hope we all get a little of what we fancy . anyhow i better move as my wife just mumbled ,i think ,on that computer again ,cheers Gang .

Hello there I do not tend to write much on the technical sites within Netweather as i have insufficient knowledge to make a competent contribution and do not want to make a complete fool of myself.

I do, however read Netweather every day and feel I am learning as i am going along.

There is one question that has been exercising my mind for some time and perhaps John Holmes or anyone else with Met Office experience may be able to answer. With the super capacity computers now available to forecast longer term trends I assume that these forecasts are more accurate than previously. Do they use data for example for events leading up to the 1947 and 1962/63 big freezes and perhaps the heatwaves of 1976 and 1977 on their current computers to produce a forecast that would come up with what actually happened further along line just to test the computers out?

Kind regards

Dave

Edited November 5, 2012 by claret047

[johnholmes]

hi Dave

Good to hear you are enjoying Net Wx and learning. We all learn from one another no matter how experienced we may be in one aspect there is always another where someone has a better grasp of things.

re the models, Met O or any of them.

No nothing in the models is so used, there are adjustments to how a model seems to be reacting over a period of time in the instructions to the model. But all of them are fed the data available at T+00 and efffectively they then chunter away with the various complex mathematical equations that are used to solve the infinitely complex problems in physics, especially such things as fluid dynamics and especially the laws of thermodynamics. At the end of the run, be that for 12 hours on some of the very fine mesh outputs, down to approx 1km on the UK, or out to T+384 with GFS or T+1000+ on CFS, the model spews out its data and has no correction or tweaks made throughout that run for whatever aspect, be it previous synoptic situations or whatever.

hope that helps?

Edited November 5, 2012 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1675

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1723

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1821

http://www.theweathe...type=bg&id=1873

I cannot find 2010/11

To me it doesn't sound like he is dismissing the strat, it just looks like he doesn't know enough about it to factor it in.

I have not been following his forecasts in the past, so I can't speak for his reliability.

This is my first post, so please go easy on me :-)

I am a newbie(but have loved weather since I was a child). I have been following the threads on this forum for the last couple of months and have really enjoyed learning from you guy's :-)

James

welcome James, enjoy what is on offer on the site, basic data, forecasts, chat on the forum, lots of helpful stuff in the Guides. Never be afraid to ask a question, and if a bit shy then send a pm and most of us are only too happy to chat about our understanding of the weather.