Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[feb1991blizzard]

people are not writing off winter, they just worry when they see the charts showing a zonal outlook as it can be hard to shift, lets be honest we are overdue a mild zonal spell of weather, some of us had a decent cold spell last feb, but most classed it as a bad winter because it was mild up till then, so i would like snow and cold to be spread out evenly over winter, yes i know its not winter yet, and yes it is too early to be panicking but if we are still in this situation come end of november then we should start to worry as december could be a write off if the models continue to show zonal crap

i hope GP is right, if he thinks end of nov could get interesting, then i wouldn't care less if most of november was very mild

And remember, if an Easterly comes off, we dont want it too early as it may only deliver uppers of -5 or so and there would be very little or no snow with that setup.

[feb1991blizzard]

Chill out boys and listen to some genius, last few tracks - arms in the air - early nineties stonkers.

Edited November 6, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowy Easterlies]

And remember, if an Easterly comes off, we dont want it too early as it may only deliver uppers of -5 or so and there would be very little or no snow with that setup.

yeah true we don't want an easterly now its too early, best wait till late nov, i would be happy with a frosty, foggy spell now, but sadly anticyclones are not common in November

Edited November 6, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[feb1991blizzard]

yeah true we don't want an easterly now its too early, best wait till late nov, i would be happy with a frosty, foggy spell now, but sadly anticyclones are not common in November

And even then its never guaranteed to deliver, i remember in mid winter 1992, i watched the countryfile forecast and seen what looked a stonker (only surface forecasts available then), and wondered why it was not delivering, answer - -5c uppers, a few snizzly sleet grauply grains over the east coast, i was desperate to get a tonking in those days to get time off school (hated it), that said though, some people on these forums panic too much about cold pooling on the continent, thinking it takes months to build, wheras in reality it can build in a few days.

[Aaron]

I hate easterlies, I prefer north easterlies.

[feb1991blizzard]

I hate easterlies, I prefer north easterlies.

Both deliver for you dont they? Assuming uppers around -10c and tight pressure gradient of course.

Edited November 6, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Aaron]

They are better for SE than here. 1987 for example.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Aaron

[Snowy Easterlies]

i wonder when the earliest time a beast from the east could deliver snow to us under -10 uppers ? it would have to be a special and very rare synoptic set up i suppose to happen in early nov i take it ?

Edited November 6, 2012 by Snowy Easterlies

[etched Chaos]

Can we please stop with the *insert weather type* is due theories please. There is no such thing as something being due, the probability of something does not increase because it's not happened in a while, if that was so then we'd be due a '63 type winter by that logic, but we're not.

[Weather-history]

we've had a lot of northern blocking for the past 6 months, i hope we don't see a strong PV and a northerly tracking jet for the next 6 months now, they do say mother nature balances her self out

But what balances what out? How do you know the last 6 months didn't balance out the previous 6 months to this?

[Bumpkin]

I don't know why people get their knickers in a twist over the weather, there is nothing you can do about it so just go with whatever it brings. Its a chaotic system that is difficult to predict and things can change rapidly. Yes most of us would like to see a good snow dumping as i think most of us are big kids at heart but I didn't see proper snowfall fall for 12 years, so its lovely when it does happen.

I would like a mixed winter (something for everyone) but I have a strong feeling that it will be a cold one. I feel it in my waters, either that or I have an infection

[bobbydog]

lovely frosty, crisp morning today. in the last couple of weeks, we have had torrential rain, strong winds, fog, frost, dull days, clear days mild days but more cold days. some had even had a few flakes of snow. Autumn is in full swing, the weather is doing exactly what it should for the time of year. there is no 'unseasonal' weather occuring. its distinctly 'Autumnal'

if this seasonal theme continues, next thing we know it will be Winter... and colder... and all the weather we should expect......

[Excitable_Weatherwatcher]

http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=%2F#/watch?v=xrJuigh2aCc

[Eskimo]

http://m.youtube.com...h?v=xrJuigh2aCc

Blimey! Hope this happens this year or next...minus the car crashes.

[cheeky_monkey]

I don't know why people get their knickers in a twist over the weather, there is nothing you can do about it so just go with whatever it brings. Its a chaotic system that is difficult to predict and things can change rapidly. Yes most of us would like to see a good snow dumping as i think most of us are big kids at heart but I didn't see proper snowfall fall for 12 years, so its lovely when it does happen.

I would like a mixed winter (something for everyone) but I have a strong feeling that it will be a cold one. I feel it in my waters, either that or I have an infection

you know i wish the weather or should i say if its going to be cold and have snow was the only thing i had worry about...life's just too short

[crimsonp]

ok you big braineez.... what can you tell me about this (apart from the pretty colours )

tis quite a contrast from what it was showing yesterday!! almost certain it will change tomorrow too..... ahh, the joys of cfs models

[Polar Maritime]

Deleted, posted wrong chart..

Edited November 6, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Bumpkin]

ok you big braineez.... what can you tell me about this (apart from the pretty colours )

tis quite a contrast from what it was showing yesterday!! almost certain it will change tomorrow too..... ahh, the joys of cfs models

Certainly not a big brain, still very much a novice but I would say very strong winds and a fair bit of rain. The 850hpa and the 2 metre temps look too high for snow. Probably got that wrong and made a fool of myself

[gottolovethisweather]

ok you big braineez.... what can you tell me about this (apart from the pretty colours )

tis quite a contrast from what it was showing yesterday!! almost certain it will change tomorrow too..... ahh, the joys of cfs models

It certainly bears an uncanny resemblance to my forecast here

[Polar Maritime]

ok you big braineez.... what can you tell me about this (apart from the pretty colours )

tis quite a contrast from what it was showing yesterday!! almost certain it will change tomorrow too..... ahh, the joys of cfs models

Gales for the North with -4 uppers on a PM airflow, snow over the high ground/ sleet down to low levels.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[lutfishah]

http://www.accuweath...012-2013/961001

accuweather going for a cold winter in uk

edit :: forgot to add this link as well

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/Euro/winter-20122013-forecast/972170

Edited November 6, 2012 by lutfishah

[SnowObsessor90]

The CFS is just updating as we speak so wait and see what it throws out next..... it's looking good so far from the east and a Greenland block setting up, as per MET O long range update...

December is looking very cold throughout the run so far...

That was yesterdays run.

[itsnowjoke]

Yes winter last year was rubbish i would love the 2010 event again it started snowing here around 16/18 December and just kept going loved it : )

[robbie69]

Last winter was perfect, only one day of snow and mild temps, hoping for a repeat of that.

[itsnowjoke]

Last winter was perfect, only one day of snow and mild temps, hoping for a repeat of that.

Do you not like snow then?