Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[Don]

ECM seasonal update out tomorrow I believe. Let's hope Matt keeps us informed!

I'm sure he will! Will it swing in favour of cold?

As for the way this November is currently shaping up, I can't help but feel that if we were having this type of November in 2007, it would have been much more positive on here, especially if the Met Office were forecasting the possibility of a very cold end. The trouble is we have been spoilt somewhat during the last 5 years! Back in 2007 our expectations for winter were pretty damn low, so even the prospect of an 'average' winter would have excited us!

[Snowy Easterlies]

I'm going to jump of a cliff! Life isn't worth living anymore!

Oh well, I'm going to Sweden this winter so bugger this winter, I don't care!

you won't get much there either if we have a rampant PV and a bartlett, best head to greenland

[Barry12]

I'm sure he will! Will it swing in favour of cold?

As for the way this November is currently shaping up, I can't help but feel that if we were having this type of November in 2007, it would have been much more positive on here, especially if the Met Office were forecasting the possibility of a very cold end. The trouble is we have been spoilt somewhat during the last 5 years! Back in 2007 our expectations for winter were pretty damn low, so even the prospect of an 'average' winter would have excited us!

Indeed that is true Don, if the Met were forecasting a very cold winter in the reliable time frame though, people would be very postive.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Barry95

[SnowObsessor90]

ECM seasonal update out tomorrow I believe. Let's hope Matt keeps us informed!

I wonder whether it will end up showing what has been suggested on here over the last day or so with a less than inspiring December but a colder Jan and Feb? It would be interesting if so.

[Barry12]

I wonder whether it will end up showing what has been suggested on here over the last day or so with a less than inspiring December but a colder Jan and Feb? It would be interesting if so.

Why is December looking less than inspiring?

[AWD]

Sounds like I'm one of the few on here who would be more than happy with a descending winter if indeed Jan & Feb did deliver.

I prefer snowfall in January anyway as that is when winter is at its coldest plus the snowfall would be least disruptive. (in terms of Xmas etc).

Positive about this winter, despite the NWP outlook for November.

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Sounds like I'm one of the few on here who would be more than happy with a descending winter if indeed Jan & Feb did deliver.

I prefer snowfall in January anyway as that is when winter is at its coldest plus the snowfall would be least disruptive. (in terms of Xmas etc).

Positive about this winter, despite the NWP outlook for November.

Bahhh! nothing better than relaxing in a chair with a glass of whiskey (or whatever you prefer) and a roaring fire whilst looking out on a wintry landscape at Christmas. I think it makes things feel more festive.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Bahhh! nothing better than relaxing in a chair with a glass of whiskey (or whatever you prefer) and a roaring fire whilst looking out on a wintry landscape at Christmas. I think it makes things feel more festive.

i second that there is nothing better than a cold wintery snowy crimbo :-D

[damianslaw]

I'm sure he will! Will it swing in favour of cold?

As for the way this November is currently shaping up, I can't help but feel that if we were having this type of November in 2007, it would have been much more positive on here, especially if the Met Office were forecasting the possibility of a very cold end. The trouble is we have been spoilt somewhat during the last 5 years! Back in 2007 our expectations for winter were pretty damn low, so even the prospect of an 'average' winter would have excited us!

Yes, agreed. November is more often than not a very autumnal month, on average March is much more wintry than November and in many years April has delivered more wintry conditions than November. We've seen a notably cold start to November this year with some snow in places, an outlook which is very average not particularly mild, and some forecasts suggesting a cold end to the month..but the way some people are talking you'd think it was Nov 94 all over again.. far from it, indeed from a cold perspective the outlook is far far far better than this time last year, and the cold winter of 09/10 was preceeded by an exceptionally mild November.

November sees the atlantic traditionally move into fifth gear, it is not a month renowned for long periods of arctic northerlies, or cold high pressure blocks setting up shop to the east or NW, indeed such synoptics are preety rare. The end of Nov 2010 was exceptional, however, it has raised many people's expectations for cold and snow in November. People forget just how mild Nov 2009 and 2011 ended up.. and we have had a run of very mild Novembers in recent years if you take away the second half of Nov 05, latter part of Nov 08 and 10, most Novembers since 1997 have been mild or very mild, some people are so blinkered by what happened in 2010 its clouded all sense of reality it seems....

I'd much rather see a winter like 09/10 than 10/11, much prefer the cold to build through December with the core of the cold in Jan, Feb much more normal than the likes of winter 10/11.

November can be a very dreary month, it can sparkle, but more often than not ends up a damp squib, it is far far different to January and February the two months when we normally see winter bite at its hardest, far more than December.

[SnowObsessor90]

Why is December looking less than inspiring?

No one knows for sure but it certainly isn't an implausible theory with things as they currently stand. That said I really do hope that the MetO and GP are onto something regarding the potential developments towards the end of this month.

Edited November 7, 2012 by Anonymous21

[March Blizzard]

Excellent post, damianslaw. Couldn't agree more. I would also much rather have any cold arrive in mid-late winter than early. Get all the mild, wet and windy out of the way in November and if needs be, have December as an "overspill", if you will.

[Ice Day]

Yes, agreed. November is more often than not a very autumnal month, on average March is much more wintry than November and in many years April has delivered more wintry conditions than November.

Couldn't agree more. To my mind, we are experiencing an 'old fashioned' November. Very Autumnal; mixture of gales, rain and fog with some occasional colder interludes. I like it when the weather's performing in line with the seasons, get's my hopes up for a traditional winter ahead (1978 or 1987 please)!

[damianslaw]

Couldn't agree more. To my mind, we are experiencing an 'old fashioned' November. Very Autumnal; mixture of gales, rain and fog with some occasional colder interludes. I like it when the weather's performing in line with the seasons, get's my hopes up for a traditional winter ahead (1978 or 1987 please)!

Yes so far it has been one of the most 'traditional' autumns in a long long way. The warm settled start to Sept, followed by cooler wetter conditions mid month and the first gales of the new season around the equinox, followed by a changeable October with a mix of cold frosty foggy weather, wetter conditions and the odd warmer spell then the first northerly of the season at the end of the month, November has started on a cold note with the first widespread heavy snowfalls for high ground, we now look like seeing more in the way of rain and milder weather - very normal with the potential for the end of the month to deliver the first proper wintry spell of the season.. How much more traditional can you get.. recent autumns exception 2008 have been very tame affairs very homogenuous with cloudy dank dreary weather non-descript.

[Ice Day]

Yes so far it has been one of the most 'traditional' autumns in a long long way. The warm settled start to Sept, followed by cooler wetter conditions mid month and the first gales of the new season around the equinox, followed by a changeable October with a mix of cold frosty foggy weather, wetter conditions and the odd warmer spell then the first northerly of the season at the end of the month, November has started on a cold note with the first widespread heavy snowfalls for high ground, we now look like seeing more in the way of rain and milder weather - very normal with the potential for the end of the month to deliver the first proper wintry spell of the season.. How much more traditional can you get.. recent autumns exception 2008 have been very tame affairs very homogenuous with cloudy dank dreary weather non-descript.

Crikey, if it gets anymore traditional, we may end up with a 'pea-souper'?!?!

[london-snow]

Why is December looking less than inspiring?

Barry but is it though?

We can only comment on what has been put in front of us cant we..

We have a strong signal for a below average start to December.

1. We have a very good forecaster in GP who has taken the time to explain his thoughts and why he expects a cold beginning to December.

2. Met office further outlook expects a cold start to December.

3. Latest ECMWF shows a strong sign of northern blocking leading into December.

I guess what you all want to know is that will it snow, Or how cold will it be and so on. The truth is nobody knows until the charts are put in front of us and we are well into reliable time frame territory even then things can change and have done so in the past.

The age old rule = Get the cold in place and worry about other factors later.

The charts at the moment are painting a picture of a typical autumnal weather pattern and will continue to do so for the next week or two. Beyond this its up for grabs but signs are for a cold start to December so its all to play for.

[Don]

Very much agree with what has been said here. I would prefer to have the main core of winter cold between New Year and mid-February rather than earlier. As good as late November/December 2010 was, the deep cold ended Boxing Day never to return and the rest of the winter felt like a hangover from the party the night before! However, to experience the 2nd coldest December on record was something that I never thought I would do! That said, I would still take winter 09/10 over 10/11.

[feb1991blizzard]

That is true Barry although i think the meto use the data collected from the ecmwf to determine their forecast and outlook although not solely .

I bet in close run situations like last jan / feb Easterly that they use other model data too, i know for a fact that they do not have much time for the GFS op but i cant help thinking that they have a peep at the NAEFS for their further outlook, i stress again, probably only when they are getting mixed messages from there own ENS and OP output. I think organisations should work together like they do with the NAEFS and maybe mix the ECM ens in with the GEM and GEFS as well, NAEFS is very good at spotting trends IMO.

[london-snow]

I bet in close run situations like last jan / feb Easterly that they use other model data too, i know for a fact that they do not have much time for the GFS op but i cant help thinking that they have a peep at the NAEFS for their further outlook, i stress again, probably only when they are getting mixed messages from there own ENS and OP output. I think organisations should work together like they do with the NAEFS and maybe mix the ECM ens in with the GEM and GEFS as well, NAEFS is very good at spotting trends IMO.

As i said not solely on one model or data,

Even in non close run situations i think they use a variety of data available and are not solely reliable on one piece of data or super computer. I guess that's why they have human input on fax charts.

Edited November 7, 2012 by london-snow

[feb1991blizzard]

As i said not solely on one model or data,

Even in non close run situations i think they use a variety of data available and are not solely reliable on one piece of data or super computer. I guess that's why they have human input on fax charts.

Last year i the ops of all 3 on one night had the HP a good few hundres miles too far East at about T96 or something similar and it was doom and gloom on here, then the FAX came out and it showed a front (albeit a very weak and decaying one with hardly any PPN at all) heading west nearly as far West as wales, me as a mere mortal did not see it coming, in the end they were right, we did get the cold spell, albeit a watered down one, Meteorology such a fascinating and skillfull profession that i dont think will ever be conquered completely.

[SnowObsessor90]

The charts at the moment are painting a picture of a typical autumnal weather pattern and will continue to do so for the next week or two. Beyond this its up for grabs but signs are for a cold start to December so its all to play for.

That's unless the strat has other ideas. Now obviously it wouldn't be the end of the world if it does as a cold Jan and Feb could still be on the cards but from a selfish point of view ideally I'd rather see it arrive in the run up towards Christmas just to give it that extra seasonal feel which definitely lacking last year with temperatures in their early to mid teens.

Edited November 8, 2012 by Anonymous21

[feb1991blizzard]

The way people have been talking in the MOD i thought the 18z would be a complete right of. HP puts up a really good fight and attempts to ridge west, remeber what GP said about waxing and waning.

[msx999]

Just a quick question, that chart posted by feb1991blizzard shows Central England under 528 dam air in a NE, surely if that came off that would mean snow? Or do we need lower thicknesses this early in the season?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just a quick question, that chart posted by feb1991blizzard shows Central England under 528 dam air in a NE, surely if that came off that would mean snow? Or do we need lower thicknesses this early in the season?

You talking about the one ive just posted?, its not a NEerly and the thicknesses are much higher.

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[msx999]

ok thanks got my clockwise/anti clockwise the wrong way round.

Is sub 528 dam AND -10 uppers a guarantee of snow, or does it depend on other factors too?

[MrSunshine]

ok thanks got my clockwise/anti clockwise the wrong way round.

Is sub 528 dam AND -10 uppers a guarantee of snow, or does it depend on other factors too?

Thickness & Dew points are also an important factor to whether you get Snow or just plain Jane Rain!