Winter 2012/13 Pt 5... Expectations, Hopes And Wishes

[feb1991blizzard]

ok thanks got my clockwise/anti clockwise the wrong way round.

Is sub 528 dam AND -10 uppers a guarantee of snow, or does it depend on other factors too?

-10 uppers is guaranteed snow, no doubt someone will post the odd exception but essentially yes, with -10 uppers i would say the thicknesses would by definition be below 528, probably 522 but i will get you this guide to forecasting snow, bare with me while i find it.

[london-snow]

That's unless the strat has other ideas. Now obviously it wouldn't be the end of the world if it does as a cold Jan and Feb could still be on the cards but from a selfish point of view ideally I'd rather see it arrive in the run up towards Christmas just to give it that extra seasonal feel which definitely lacking last year with temperatures in their early to mid teens.

With regards to the strat i feel it is just one of many different drivers that has the potential outcome of determining our weather if you like a piece to a jigsaw puzzle.

In order to get cold its not all just about the state of the stratosphere. We could get a favorable state of strat but we could get a jet over the top of the uk or a lack of snow and ice in the nh could be a factor. I am by no means being disrespectful by others hard work and understanding but do feel that it is not the primary be all and end all if or if not the strat play's ball.

Edited November 8, 2012 by london-snow

[Alan Medlock Valley]

Very much agree with what has been said here. I would prefer to have the main core of winter cold between New Year and mid-February rather than earlier. As good as late November/December 2010 was, the deep cold ended Boxing Day never to return and the rest of the winter felt like a hangover from the party the night before! However, to experience the 2nd coldest December on record was something that I never thought I would do! That said, I would still take winter 09/10 over 10/11.

Me too, while Dec 2010 was fantastic January and February that followed was odd as we didn't have any real sustained cold in those months. February was particularly mild indeed. I only recorded 3 air frosts in that month here and the max's were usually above 8C.

In fact just looked through my records and not one flake of snow fell after mid January 2011 until a minor snowfall in mid December 2011. Quite unusual for here as we usually get some snow in Feb March and April.

Edited November 8, 2012 by Alan Medlock Valley

[feb1991blizzard]

John Holmes's guide to forecasting snow.

http://forum.netweat...-forecast-snow/

Another good one is this by Ian Simpson (TWS), explaining what setups deliver for what areas.

http://forum.netweat...er-snow-setups/

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

Me too, while Dec 2010 was fantastic January and February that followed was odd as we didn't have any real sustained cold in those months. February was particularly mild indeed. I only recorded 3 air frosts in that month here and the max's were usually above 8C.

In fact just looked through my records and not one flake of snow fell after mid January 2011 until a minor snowfall in mid December 2011. Quite unusual for here as we usually get some snow in Feb March and April.

I did not see a single flake here after about the 7th Jan 2011, we did get a slushy dusting on about 4th dec 2011 and a really quick couple of inches on 18th december sunday at about 5am, some of the biggest flakes i have ever seen, it all fell in the space of 45 minutes, very unexpectedly i have to say, i was lucky, i would have missed it had i not stayed up for the Froch V Ward fight.

For me though 09/10 was the best winter since the return of the southerly tracking jetstream, if i would have been living here then though, it may have even rivaled 87 and 91.

Edited November 8, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

I will get the ball rolling then. Almost 2 years to the day, lets just say that that is as good a chart as you are likely to see in November.

[Aaron]

I did not see a single flake here after about the 7th Jan 2011, we did get a slushy dusting on about 4th dec 2011 and a really quick couple of inches on 18th december sunday at about 5am, some of the biggest flakes i have ever seen, it all fell in the space of 45 minutes, very unexpectedly i have to say, i was lucky, i would have missed it had i not stayed up for the Froch V Ward fight.

For me though 09/10 was the best winter since the return of the southerly tracking jetstream, if i would have been living here then though, it may have even rivaled 87 and 91.

You didn't see a flake after the 7th of Jan 2011? Surprising, we got snowfall in February, but not in December (except a snow shower or two which didn't leave any accumulation).

Edited November 8, 2012 by Aaron

[feb1991blizzard]

You didn't see a flake after the 7th of Jan 2011? Surprising, we got snowfall in February, but not in December (except a snow shower or two which didn't leave any accumulation).

Yes, my mate was up early though, and he saw cars going past with a good few inches of snow on them, i am not saying that not one flake fell in the whole area because this area is very rugged, there are places within 2 miles of here that are 1200ft altitude but i think not much happened, i remember the NAE on the friday night got me interested but i woke up and it was wet rather than white.

Another thing i would like to say is that i think i may have got my years wrong, remember a post where i said that i could not believe 87 did not deliver for you and i said the Snake Pass Inn pub between Manchester and Sheffield had a picture with 8 foot drifts, just wondering if it was 86 or 85 and my memory is playing tricks, did any of those years deliver big snow in Central Northern England?

[Mark Neal.]

I will get the ball rolling then. Almost 2 years to the day, lets just say that that is as good a chart as you are likely to see in November.

Nice, Greenland High there

[Eskimo]

I will get the ball rolling then. Almost 2 years to the day, lets just say that that is as good a chart as you are likely to see in November.

Looks predominantly cloudy whilst turning colder, very nice chart however...just hope it's on to something!

[Heisenberg]

Looks predominantly cloudy whilst turning colder, very nice chart however...just hope it's on to something!

Err...last years chart guys...

[Dee-Dee]

I dont think it is

[Eskimo]

Err...last years chart guys...

Jeez louise how did I not spot that?! My eyesight is starting to go and I'm only 20.

[bobbydog]

Err...last years chart guys...

no its not, its from the 00Z run last night. check out the model thread. first signs of a possible PV shift and northern blocking!

[Liam J]

Err...last years chart guys...

That chart is from the overnight 00z run?

[bobbydog]

That chart is from the overnight 00z run?

i just said that

[Cheshire Freeze]

yep it's from the 00z GFS run. I know because I was up at 4.45 for work and I viewed the run on my mobile! You would have been hard pressed to find a chart like that last year anyway!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I wonder when we'll hear about the ECM seasonal update? Anxiously waiting!

[Don]

I wonder when we'll hear about the ECM seasonal update? Anxiously waiting!

Just what I was thinking. I thought we would have heard by now?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Just what I was thinking. I thought we would have heard by now?

Word on the street is that it is very bad news, 3 months of barty high apparently , the samaritans are just being briefed before being made available to the general public.

[Heisenberg]

Yep, my bad, its my eyesight thats having issues....Sorry bout tha'

[Don]

Word on the street is that it is very bad news, 3 months of barty high apparently , the samaritans are just being briefed before being made available to the general public.

LOL! I won't buy that snow shovel on special offer from Tesco now. Think I'll buy some shorts and T-shirts instead!

Edited November 8, 2012 by Don

[cheeky_monkey]

Just driving in to work this morning through more snow..and the guy on the radio mentioned the word 'snowmageddon' as we are at the start of 2 day snow event which will dump up to 30cm on the city..any way only ever seen that word on this forum before.

[Methuselah]

Just driving in to work this morning through more snow..and the guy on the radio mentioned the word 'snowmageddon' as we are at the start of 2 day snow event which will dump up to 30cm on the city..any way only ever seen that word on this forum before.

I think that netweather might have invented it??

[Cheshire Freeze]

Regardless of whatever the ECM seasonal update says later, I'm rather concerned by the reluctance of the CFS to paint a particularly cold winter. Infact, over the past 4 weeks, the promising patterns we were at one time seeing have completely disintegrated. All routes seem to point to average/mild on this model.